**BANTER THREAD** Rolling into active period...wintry potential increasing, so are toaster sales

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Gefs look good after about 156 hours. Little warm prior

[Clinch Leatherwood]

More like 150 hours. Nice rain to snow situation.

[Typhoon Tip]

Gefs look good after about 156 hours. Little warm prior

I like that little 99? nuke it has at 144hrs. If that can manage to lay down a half a foot, you get exertion from the N operating over snow pack boundary layer - that's a transitive variable for the following main player.

[CTWeatherFreak]

Can someone please post a link for those big black and white ggem maps?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I like that little 99? nuke it has at 144hrs. If that can manage to lay down a half a foot, you get exertion from the N operating over snow pack boundary layer - that's a transitive variable for the following main player.

Many different solutions so far. We will see. Odds on the euro jumping around from its earlier run are pretty good

[JoMo]

Can someone please post a link for those big black and white ggem maps?

Bottom

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

[CoastalWx]

Can someone please post a link for those big black and white ggem maps?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en

[Typhoon Tip]

Many different solutions so far. We will see. Odds on the euro jumping around from its earlier run are pretty good

Not as much so as the other guidance types, though. We are not in the Euro's bow-down wheel house yet, but, since these waves are coming off the Pac on a low angle trajectory, even the Euro is susceptible to modeling black out - with the GFS, that's that period of time where it loses the system, only to bring it back around 96 hours or so.

[Typhoon Tip]

Bottom

http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html

If you want the la-la range , http://ggweather.com/loops/canada_all_00z.htm

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Not as much so as the other guidance types, though. We are not in the Euro's bow-down wheel house yet, but, since these waves are coming off the Pac on a low angle trajectory, even the Euro is susceptible to modeling black out - with the GFS, that's that period of time where it loses the system, only to bring it back around 96 hours or so.

I'd like to see the euro stay cool for storm 1. Not loving the idea personally of "days and days" of cold non snow as we wait for an eventual changeover.

Ensembles are probably the way to go at this range. ? Is which ones.

[weatherMA]

It's so confusing in here with 3 separate threads. I feel like thats a little much.

[ctsnowstorm628]

It's so confusing in here with 3 separate threads. I feel like thats a little much.

Agree. Maybe one analysis and one banter thread?

[QVectorman]

Looking at the GWO it appears we should see a shots of "relatively" colder air making its way across the Midwest or Northeast between Dec. 21-23 and then another Dec. 27-30. Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3 moving over the Midwest and/or NE (maybe coldest air of season so far based on magnitude of temp spike). All just theory on GWO and strat temps but it looks like end of dec. should be good and chilly if theory pans out.

[weatherMA]

Agree. Maybe one analysis and one banter thread?

Yeah, agreed. Everyone ends up picking one thread and posting mostly in that one anyone, regardless of the title. It's unavoidable when you have 100+ people online for a major threat.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's so confusing in here with 3 separate threads. I feel like thats a little much.

This is probably a bit my fault, but I agree - I'm not sure where to post these last minute thoughts on the day.

[eduggs]

Yes where to post? The GGEM agrees with CT Kev. Days and days of snow. There would be some 20" or 30" 4 day totals with that depiction (outside the mountains).

The CMC says everybody outside of Maine gets in on it.

The GFS says nobody outside of Maine gets in on it.

What to believe?

[moneypitmike]

I really like the BOX forecast for mby. Tough to get POP's this high so far in advance--even if it ends up coming in wetter than white.

Sunday: Snow likely. Cold with highs in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Sunday Night And Monday: Snow and sleet likely. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Monday Night: Snow likely. Near steady temperature around 30. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a chance of snow and rain. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Near steady temperature around 30.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s.

[dryslot]

except mountains in upstate maine get crushed with huge swath of 25-30 inches on 0z gfs. saddle back , sugarloaf BOMB!

12z they got crushed as well, But some poo poo it when it was mentioned

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Heavy frost this morning. I bottomed out at 14F around 6am.

[Mr Torchey]

Fantastic stretch of weather down here over the next three days, sunny and 45-50...........the torch rolls on, and on, and on.

[Mr Torchey]

Meltdowns are going to be some of the best ever.

[mattb65]

Fantastic stretch of weather down here over the next three days, sunny and 45-50...........the torch rolls on, and on, and on.

No torch here. Seems seasonable for most of the region.

[Mr Torchey]

No torch here. Seems seasonable for most of the region.

Yeah its been a seasonable month!

[Mr Torchey]

Monthlies at all 4 majors

bos+5.2

bdl+4.1

pvd+6.0

orh+7.0

[mattb65]

Yeah its been a seasonable month!

After all you said next 3 days not the past month.

Normal for most yesterday and today. Above tomorrow then seems normal or possibly below/above depending on storm track. Certainly not torch going on and on like you claimed.

[Ginx snewx]

Conceptually the more I think about it, what the analogs are pointing to is yet another storm Christmas eve or so, this time no temp issues. What a pattern.

[Brian5671]

Fantastic stretch of weather down here over the next three days, sunny and 45-50...........the torch rolls on, and on, and on.

We've moved from a severe torch to seasonable. Don't really see any serious cold anywhere next week or so...maybe a bit below climo-steps in the right direction at least....

-

nice to see some frost last 2 mornings too. You know it's been bad when a below freezing morning gets me excited.

[Mr Torchey]

Normal for most yesterday and today. Above tomorrow then seems normal or possibly below/above depending on storm track. Certainly not torch going on and on like you claimed.

Its been a torch for 23 months, not really sure what you are talking about, I look at the big picture, I see no below normal days for any length of time on the horizon. Where is the cold?

[ineedsnow]

heavy frost this morning!! last month was below

Its been a torch for 23 months, not really sure what you are talking about, I look at the big picture, I see no below normal days for any length of time on the horizon. Where is the cold?

[Ginx snewx]

Meltdowns are going to be some of the best ever.

Why? No one on the coast should be expecting anything except a change back to snow after rain. From the get go this has been an interior threat. You and Messenger make things up as you go along. Its getting a little old the constant demeaning of what are some pretty intelligent folks who dominate these threads. 99% of the folks who post here are level headed and have a great grasp on current and future weather systems. Most are seasoned veterans of this board. You mistake tongue and cheek and model interpretation as expectation.