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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December

Alpha5

By Alpha5,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

This would be nice..

  • A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

  • Sunday

    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

  • Sunday Night

    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

  • Monday

    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

  • Monday Night

    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

  • Tuesday

    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

  • Tuesday Night

    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

  • Wednesday

    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted

Both the 12z NAM and 12z GEM show around 0.5" of QPF as snow for ALB. The NAM eventually changes over to rain during Sunday afternoon, while the GEM stays as mostly snow. The low that develops off the coast in the GEM depiction seems to increase the northerly ageostrophic flow which helps keep the cold air at low levels in place.

The GFS is less amplified and more positively tilted with the initial shortwave, allowing the primary low to develop further north and bring warmer air into the region. This also causes slower intensification of the low offshore, limiting the colder ageostrophic flow. We'll have to see how the shortwave evolves over the next few days to know if the air can remain cold enough for mainly snow.

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schinz

schinz

Posted
Posted

Lakes will stir a bit Tues eve/night....then we can definitively issue a full fledged "Lake Erie and Ontario wake up alert"......T minus ~100 hours......

Mr King......Planning the annual family ski trip to the Peak Dec 26th to Jan 2nd. Does it look like the period could be active for LES or should I be just looking forward to 21-23 of December laying a good foundation and then back to warm? Thanks!!!

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

Mr King......Planning the annual family ski trip to the Peak Dec 26th to Jan 2nd. Does it look like the period could be active for LES or should I be just looking forward to 21-23 of December laying a good foundation and then back to warm? Thanks!!!

That range is still a tough call, but I'd lean toward a more winter like regime than we have been having currently. We may warm up, but I think a good deal of the area downwind of the lakes and in the upslope regions, will feel winter pretty harshly this weekend for the first time in almost 2 years! We certainly should moderate a bit after Christmas but how much is yet to be determined.

Euro is COLD for this Sunday!!! (and very snowy for many localized spots!!) :)

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schinz

schinz

Posted
Posted

That range is still a tough call, but I'd lean toward a more winter like regime than we have been having currently. We may warm up, but I think a good deal of the area downwind of the lakes and in the upslope regions, will feel winter pretty harshly this weekend for the first time in almost 2 years! We certainly should moderate a bit after Christmas but how much is yet to be determined.

Euro is COLD for this Sunday!!! (and very snowy for many localized spots!!) :)

Thanks...looking forward to some good winter weather!!!!

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

That range is still a tough call, but I'd lean toward a more winter like regime than we have been having currently. We may warm up, but I think a good deal of the area downwind of the lakes and in the upslope regions, will feel winter pretty harshly this weekend for the first time in almost 2 years! We certainly should moderate a bit after Christmas but how much is yet to be determined.

Euro is COLD for this Sunday!!! (and very snowy for many localized spots!!) :)

Looking nice for my trip to Albany this Sun!

Several days of snow for parts of upstate NY, especially from Syracuse on into the Tug Hill. Probably 80% lake-effect but some enhancement to the north as that inverted trough / remnant TROWL backs in from the east on Mon. Maybe even some light Hudson / Mohawk valley convergence and upslope snows for the Greens / Berkshires thrown in there for good measure. :santa:

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

How far east/north does Lake Effect normally go? Does it go all the way across the adirondacks to near Lake Champlain or does it stop west of that?

-skisheep

Depends on many factors (cloud height... ie LCL, shear, speed, ambient moisture, local orographic effects...etc.)

Let's just say that with the progged setup, many of the above stated factors should be pretty good to have decent chances for light to mod. accumulating snows for much of the higher terrain of the NE.....along with the localized LES jackpots...

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Latest BUFFALO AFD: I will take it!

THE DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AND TRACK WILL PLAY AN

IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE...AND IT WILL

PROBABLY STILL BE A FEW DAYS BEFORE WE HAVE A MORE PRECISE MODEL

CONSENSUS GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN EVOLUTION. IN A

GENERAL SENSE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST

TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH

SNOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY

MORNING AS THE WRAP AROUND/COMMA HEAD ARRIVES. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE

FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH INTENSITY DEPENDING ON

EXACTLY WHERE THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF AND SURFACE LOW END UP STALLING.

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME

ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGESTING

THE HEAVIEST WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS HIGHER

TERRAIN WITH SOME HELP FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND. THE BEST

POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REMAINS

STRONGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. IT WILL STILL BE WINDY RIGHT

THROUGH SATURDAY...SO SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF BLOWING

AND DRIFTING ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER ON SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW...ALTHOUGH TO WHAT EXTENT

STILL DEPENDS ON WHERE IT ENDS UP STALLING. FOR NOW WILL JUST RUN

WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES

SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF

YEAR OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MAYBE EVEN BELOW AVERAGE IF THE COLDER

ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Euro text for a few locations..

KUCA

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.3 -1.6       1004     94	 98          0.13	 550	 547
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 2.9      0.0	 998	 97	 100        0.25	 541	 543
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.0     -2.3	 991	 99	 100        0.63	 531	 539
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.1   -4.9	 988	 96	 95         0.22	 523	 533
SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.0   -5.0	 985	 97	 100       0.21	 519	 531
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.9  -8.8	 990	 90	 98         0.39	 518	 527
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -5.4  -12.4	 996   81	 99         0.32	 520	 523
SUN 00Z 23-DEC -6.5  -13.3   1003    85	 95      0.17	 523	 521
SUN 06Z 23-DEC -6.5  -12.9    1004    86	 58      0.07	 521	 518
SUN 12Z 23-DEC -8.6  -14.9    1007    86	 87      0.05	 520	 514
SUN 18Z 23-DEC -8.7  -16.7    1009    74	 95      0.04     522	 515
MON 00Z 24-DEC -9.5  -15.7    1012    83	 94      0.04	 525	 516
MON 06Z 24-DEC -11.0  -15.0   1012    84	 89    0.03	 526	 516
MON 12Z 24-DEC -11.3  -14.4   1014    85	 82    0.03	 527	 517

KSYR

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.5	 0.9 1001	 94	 97 0.25	 549	 549
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 4.5 -0.2	 997	 96	 100 0.25	 538	 541
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.8 -4.3	 991	 95	 98 0.31	 529	 536
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.3 -4.7	 989	 94	 97 0.05	 523	 531
SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.3 -5.7	 988	 97	 99 0.28	 520	 530
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -3.0 -10.4	 993	 86	 99 0.46	 521	 526
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -4.5 -12.9	 999	 81	 98 0.43	 522	 522
SUN 00Z 23-DEC -4.0 -12.3 1004	 80	 74 0.20	 525	 522
SUN 06Z 23-DEC -4.6 -12.5 1006	 81	 61 0.06	 521	 517
SUN 12Z 23-DEC -6.4 -14.7 1008	 81	 97 0.06	 520	 514
SUN 18Z 23-DEC -6.8 -16.0 1010	 73	 91 0.05	 522	 515
MON 00Z 24-DEC -6.9 -15.5 1013	 79	 90 0.05	 525	 515
MON 06Z 24-DEC -8.0 -15.8 1014	 80	 82 0.04	 526	 516
MON 12Z 24-DEC -8.9 -15.9 1015	 83	 82 0.03	 527	 516

Kalb

FRI 12Z 21-DEC 4.0	 1.0 1000	 97	 98 0.23	 547	 546
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 6.1	 2.9	 987	 96	 99 0.72	 536	 547
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.1 -3.9	 987	 91	 74 0.49	 524	 534
SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.6 -4.9	 984	 94	 99 0.09	 517	 530
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -0.7 -6.9	 986	 84	 96 0.12	 517	 528
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -2.2 -9.6	 991	 72	 97 0.06	 518	 525
SUN 00Z 23-DEC -5.1 -11.4	 999	 73	 96 0.03	 521	 522
SUN 06Z 23-DEC -5.6 -12.6 1002	 77	 85 0.02	 522	 520
SUN 12Z 23-DEC -7.4 -13.8 1004	 78	 77 0.01	 519	 516
SUN 18Z 23-DEC -5.7 -15.4 1006	 60	 97 0.01	 521	 516
MON 00Z 24-DEC -8.5 -14.2 1009	 72	 94 0.01	 524	 517
MON 06Z 24-DEC -9.4 -12.8 1009	 72	 97 0.02	 524	 518
MON 12Z 24-DEC -9.8 -11.0 1010	 73	 91 0.04	 526	 519

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Euro text for a few locations..

KUCA

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.3 -1.6 1004	 94	 98 0.13	 550	 547
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 2.9	 0.0	 998	 97	 100 0.25	 541	 543
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.0 -2.3	 991	 99	 100 0.63	 531	 539
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.1 -4.9	 988	 96	 95 0.22	 523	 533
SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.0 -5.0	 985	 97	 100 0.21	 519	 531
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.9 -8.8	 990	 90	 98 0.39	 518	 527
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -5.4 -12.4	 996	 81	 99 0.32	 520	 523
SUN 00Z 23-DEC -6.5 -13.3 1003	 85	 95 0.17	 523	 521
SUN 06Z 23-DEC -6.5 -12.9 1004	 86	 58 0.07	 521	 518
SUN 12Z 23-DEC -8.6 -14.9 1007	 86	 87 0.05	 520	 514
SUN 18Z 23-DEC -8.7 -16.7 1009	 74	 95 0.04	 522	 515
MON 00Z 24-DEC -9.5 -15.7 1012	 83	 94 0.04	 525	 516
MON 06Z 24-DEC -11.0 -15.0 1012	 84	 89 0.03	 526	 516
MON 12Z 24-DEC -11.3 -14.4 1014	 85	 82 0.03	 527	 517

KSYR

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.5	 0.9 1001	 94	 97 0.25	 549	 549
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 4.5 -0.2	 997	 96	 100 0.25	 538	 541
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.8 -4.3	 991	 95	 98 0.31	 529	 536
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.3 -4.7	 989	 94	 97 0.05	 523	 531
SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.3 -5.7	 988	 97	 99 0.28	 520	 530
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -3.0 -10.4	 993	 86	 99 0.46	 521	 526
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -4.5 -12.9	 999	 81	 98 0.43	 522	 522
SUN 00Z 23-DEC -4.0 -12.3 1004	 80	 74 0.20	 525	 522
SUN 06Z 23-DEC -4.6 -12.5 1006	 81	 61 0.06	 521	 517
SUN 12Z 23-DEC -6.4 -14.7 1008	 81	 97 0.06	 520	 514
SUN 18Z 23-DEC -6.8 -16.0 1010	 73	 91 0.05	 522	 515
MON 00Z 24-DEC -6.9 -15.5 1013	 79	 90 0.05	 525	 515
MON 06Z 24-DEC -8.0 -15.8 1014	 80	 82 0.04	 526	 516
MON 12Z 24-DEC -8.9 -15.9 1015	 83	 82 0.03	 527	 516

Kalb

FRI 12Z 21-DEC 4.0	 1.0 1000	 97	 98 0.23	 547	 546
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 6.1	 2.9	 987	 96	 99 0.72	 536	 547
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.1 -3.9	 987	 91	 74 0.49	 524	 534
SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.6 -4.9	 984	 94	 99 0.09	 517	 530
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -0.7 -6.9	 986	 84	 96 0.12	 517	 528
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -2.2 -9.6	 991	 72	 97 0.06	 518	 525
SUN 00Z 23-DEC -5.1 -11.4	 999	 73	 96 0.03	 521	 522
SUN 06Z 23-DEC -5.6 -12.6 1002	 77	 85 0.02	 522	 520
SUN 12Z 23-DEC -7.4 -13.8 1004	 78	 77 0.01	 519	 516
SUN 18Z 23-DEC -5.7 -15.4 1006	 60	 97 0.01	 521	 516
MON 00Z 24-DEC -8.5 -14.2 1009	 72	 94 0.01	 524	 517
MON 06Z 24-DEC -9.4 -12.8 1009	 72	 97 0.02	 524	 518
MON 12Z 24-DEC -9.8 -11.0 1010	 73	 91 0.04	 526	 519

Have any for KBuf or Rochester?

Syracuse is going to get destroyed out of this pattern.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Have any for KBuf or Rochester?

Syracuse is going to get destroyed out of this pattern.

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 4.1	 3.3	 997	 90	 97 0.20	 545	 548
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 4.6 -4.9	 995	 75	 60 0.03	 532	 536
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 3.7 -5.0	 991	 68	 83 0.01	 526	 533
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.8 -4.3	 992	 96	 99 0.09	 524	 530
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -1.0 -8.9	 995	 81	 98 0.20	 524	 528
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.9 -11.4 1000	 79	 98 0.23	 526	 526
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -2.5 -11.2 1003	 75	 73 0.12	 526	 524
SUN 00Z 23-DEC -2.9 -11.7 1007	 74	 43 0.01	 528	 522
SUN 06Z 23-DEC -3.6 -13.0 1008	 76	 88 0.01	 522	 516
SUN 12Z 23-DEC -5.6 -14.6 1010	 77	 78 0.02	 522	 514
SUN 18Z 23-DEC -4.7 -15.3 1012	 65	 97 0.02	 524	 515
MON 00Z 24-DEC -6.0 -15.6 1015	 74	 93 0.01	 526	 514
MON 06Z 24-DEC -7.0 -15.9 1016	 77	 66 0.02	 527	 515
MON 12Z 24-DEC -8.2 -16.2 1017	 79	 56 0.01	 526	 513

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

How's the lake effect looking for southern oswego county area for this weekend? I have no idea what the image above means since i'm not good with weather models and all that lol. Guessing the Cuse may get it good with LES?

Your probably in one of the best possible spots for the most accumulation of snow from Friday-Monday period.

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