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Central/Western Summer Medium/Long Range Discussions


Srain

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Can't help but lol at chasers that keep getting getting caught up in random runs of the GFS that are showing nonsense consistent mild temps/severe chances in the med/long range. Whether they say they believe it or not, there's no point in having a discussion on some nonsense threat 7 days out, which is unlikely to happen in this pattern.

 

More attention needs to be paid towards the teleconnections and how terrible the GFS has been on projecting them.

 

As I have been mentioning a bit elsewhere for the past several weeks, the writing has been on the wall that things wouldn't come together until early-April at the earliest. ...And it's now obvious that you can kick that back to around mid-April.

 

I haven't chased since last April 14th...and expect to pass that date this year before my first chase...unfortunately.

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Can't help but lol at chasers that keep getting getting caught up in random runs of the GFS that are showing nonsense consistent mild temps/severe chances in the med/long range. Whether they say they believe it or not, there's no point in having a discussion on some nonsense threat 7 days out, which is unlikely to happen in this pattern.

 

More attention needs to be paid towards the teleconnections and how terrible the GFS has been on projecting them.

 

As I have been mentioning a bit elsewhere for the past several weeks, the writing has been on the wall that things wouldn't come together until early-April at the earliest. ...And it's now obvious that you can kick that back to around mid-April.

 

I haven't chased since last April 14th...and expect to pass that date this year before my first chase...unfortunately.

For some I guess it's just something to talk about. I'm kind of intriqued by your phrase "mild temps/severe chances". For Monday in west central Texas (at least in our CWA) we're forecasting pre-frontal conditions of 80-84 temps and 57-61 dews...with a possible triple point setup depending on frontal timing. Instability progs are decent to good too...but if it was 3 days out I'd be more optimistic about it. Hopefully the pattern changes where you can chase...I've been on 3 chases down here out of the 7 events so far (got called into the forecast office to work the others). I'm not sure what area you were referring to though.

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For some I guess it's just something to talk about. I'm kind of intriqued by your phrase "mild temps/severe chances". For Monday in west central Texas (at least in our CWA) we're forecasting pre-frontal conditions of 80-84 temps and 57-61 dews...with a possible triple point setup depending on frontal timing. Instability progs are decent to good too...but if it was 3 days out I'd be more optimistic about it. Hopefully the pattern changes where you can chase...I've been on 3 chases down here out of the 7 events so far (got called into the forecast office to work the others). I'm not sure what area you were referring to though.

Regarding the "mild temps/severe chances", I mean sustained chances you start to see around this time of year (Excluding your area temp wise).

 

As for chasing, many have yet to venture out. Taking into account there probably won't be any decent activity through the 7th, it's a fairly slow start to the season. Hopefully things will get going around/after mid-month, just as they did after the slow start in 2010.

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Take the anomalous 2011 out of that and what do you have though?

 

Not only that, but slipping in the "long-track" requirement seems like spin worthy of a politician. I mean, if that's really what you're interested in, it is what it is -- and clearly Dixie Alley comes out on top. But it's well-known that average storm motion is significantly faster in the Southeast than in the Plains on tornado days. So if you were to compare tornadoes with a threshold on temporal duration rather than track length, I guarantee the scales would start to tip back.

 

Not trying to attack anyone; like I said, it is what it is. I've just grown so tired over the years of incessant "OMGZ the alley is shifting east forever!!" commentary. I'm sure NWS JAN fully understands the context of their graphic, but some people who see it probably won't.

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Not only that, but slipping in the "long-track" requirement seems like spin worthy of a politician. I mean, if that's really what you're interested in, it is what it is -- and clearly Dixie Alley comes out on top. But it's well-known that average storm motion is significantly faster in the Southeast than in the Plains on tornado days. So if you were to compare tornadoes with a threshold on temporal duration rather than track length, I guarantee the scales would start to tip back.

 

Not trying to attack anyone; like I said, it is what it is. I've just grown so tired over the years of incessant "OMGZ the alley is shifting east forever!!" commentary. I'm sure NWS JAN fully understands the context of their graphic, but some people who see it probably won't.

 

I think the point was more geared towards the fact that long-tracked tornadoes spend more distance on the ground and thus have a higher likelihood of impacting property and multiple towns along the path, I don't think anyone was implying that the "alley was shifting east forever", but you can't deny that Dixie Alley has a higher concentration of fatalities due to a number of factors (enhanced support of long-tracked tornadoes, poor terrain, trees, higher population density, etc.)

 

Just because a tornado spends a long time on the ground does not mean it will impact a larger spatial area (if it has a slow storm motion, ala Jarrell or Greensburg), but if you combine long-duration and long-tracked (which is essentially a given when a tornado spends 50+ miles on the ground, regardless of storm motion), it is going to have a higher likelihood of impacting a population center, regardless of where it is.

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Although the Alabama/Mississippi percentage is impressive, I think Nebraska impresses me with the 3 violent 100+ mile track tornadoes.  The fast storm motions in the South are asking for long track tornadoes, but when I think of Nebraska, I think of much slower motions leading to a tornado family instead of a single 100+ mile path. 

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I think the point was more geared towards the fact that long-tracked tornadoes spend more distance on the ground and thus have a higher likelihood of impacting property and multiple towns along the path, I don't think anyone was implying that the "alley was shifting east forever", but you can't deny that Dixie Alley has a higher concentration of fatalities due to a number of factors (enhanced support of long-tracked tornadoes, poor terrain, trees, higher population density, etc.)

 

Just because a tornado spends a long time on the ground does not mean it will impact a larger spatial area (if it has a slow storm motion, ala Jarrell or Greensburg), but if you combine long-duration and long-tracked (which is essentially a given when a tornado spends 50+ miles on the ground, regardless of storm motion), it is going to have a higher likelihood of impacting a population center, regardless of where it is.

 

True; long tracks would be correlated with higher human impacts. Then again, almost every attribute of Southeast tornadoes -- from population density and proportion of mobile homes to visibility and diurnal timing -- favors higher human impacts to begin with. That region is and always will be the most dangerous in the U.S. for a major outbreak, among regions where outbreaks are climatologically expected.

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Second year in a row...

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013 /1012 AM MDT SAT MAR 30 2013/

...FIRST TORNADO CONFIRMED IN WESTERN NEBRASKA...

MARCH 29TH...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN KEITH
COUNTY AND INTENSIFIED WHILE MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL LINCOLN
COUNTY. THE STORM PRODUCED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...OR 1.75
INCHES AND THE FIRST TORNADO OF THE SEASON IN WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM MOVED EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LINCOLN
COUNTY TO PRODUCE A WEAK (EF-0) TORNADO. AT 602 PM CDT...THE WEAK
TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SUTHERLAND GERALD GENTLEMAN STATION...TO THE SOUTH OF SUTHERLAND OVER A
HARVESTED CROP FIELD. NO DAMAGE WAS INITIALLY REPORTED OR LATER
FOUND BY LAW ENFORCEMENT. ADDITIONAL DETAILS FOR THE TORNADO
INCLUDES:

TORNADO:
RATED:  EF-0 TORNADO
PATH LENGTH:  .25 MILE
PATH WIDTH:  25 YARDS
INJURIES:  0
DAMAGE:  NONE
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED:  65 MPH

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Still well out there, but we have already the mention of dryline supercells with the latest D4-8.

 

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS - D8...   MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER   THE WRN CONUS AFTER ABOUT D7 WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN   STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE   PLAINS...WITH MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE TIMING OF EMBEDDED   SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DRYLINE   SUPERCELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM KS INTO   OK AND TX. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER   DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS NRN OK BY 00Z ON THE 9TH.
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Watching April 8th closely.  Both GFS and Euro depiction is quite nice right now. A few GFS runs have had the appearance of a significant outbreak day

 

Agree, I have been watching this one for a while and the run to run consistency of the GFS/Euro has been pretty outstanding. The signal toward at the very least a decent potential has been shown for days now.

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The 12z GFS is much more progressive than previous runs and suggests this threat may extend significantly further east. Also building 2000-4000 J/kg of CAPE over TX and OK on the 8th...

 

Certainly the 8th will be one to watch. Nice dry line bulge depicted on the GFS as well.

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