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November 26th-29th (Snow?) Storm

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Start at 5:30 pm finishing around 3:00AM. A snow plowers prefered timed storm. Nothing worse than a quick punch at 6am to screw up your morning. Everyone thinks they need to be first on the list. I always pick who pays first as a importantance factor.

Those 6 a.m. punches are the only times they close school around here. We could get a foot of snow throughout the night and the roads be a mess, but everything will be open. They are pretty hardcore around here with not canceling stuff.

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UKMET and GGEM look really similar. Good for the upper midwest, if they verify. My gut instinct says the track will end up like the GGEM, and I will be surprised (and happy) if Detroit ends up getting the bullseye.

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Looks like it was run for another planet. Talk about suppressed.

I have a hard time believing that there will be that much cold air suppressing the storm. No way that verifies for this time of year.

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We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt.

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We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt.

I think the Euro is the outlier at this point. I'd be a lot more concerned with a really suppressed solution if it still has a couple days from now.

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We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt.

The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.

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I think the Euro is the outlier at this point. I'd be a lot more concerned with a really suppressed solution if it still has a couple days from now.

The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.

Great minds think alike. :lol:

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Even the NOGAPS takes the surface low into Ohio.

Yep, the Euro is definitely an outlier.

I have a good feeling I'm going to be wasting my Thanksgiving away looking through models. :lol:

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The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.

IMO, I think he GEM has been the most consistent thus far, I'm just having a hard time buying it, the - PDO what it is, cold air will pour in before the storm gets wrapped up.

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I think even though the Euro is a outlier as compared to other models, I think it's solution is the correct one

Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January.

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Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January.

Backing that up, looking at the GFS Ensembles, there are divergent solutions, with a few looking like the GEM and UKMET. Interestingly, those solutions do not diverge until about 96-102 hrs out, illustrating how much time we are likely going to have to wait until the model discrepancies resolve themselves.

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It was just last year on Nov 29th that I picked up 6 inches, north of Lansing jack-potted the storm with 12 inches.

It was my only 3+ inch storm of the winter.

Jon

A measly 0.6" on the backedge of the storm last nov 29/30. Shocked you didnt get 3"+ on feb 10/11, had 4.9" imby.

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Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January.

It's really not that cold. there are disjointed pockets of colder air moving South. But along the front, it's really not that cold at all. And it's also November 27th.

The average high is 49 low 33 in STL that day.

Look's like the models all handle the strength of the short wave much differently, the GEM and EURO are light years apart on the piece of energy and subsequent amplification.

The suppression would be even worse if the GFS solutions of the lead Northern stream piece of energy were more like a few days ago with a or without a strong system diving into the trough.

00zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA120.gif?t=1353570962

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The Gem. GFS, and Euro, the scales are different, the Euro's depiction of the system wouldn't even show up on the first two maps.

5 Days out, talk about all over the place.

00zggem500mbvort120.gif?t=1353571611

00zgfs500mbvort120.gif?t=1353571862

121122081104.gif?t=1353571979

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As tough as it is to bet against such a superior model, I'm pretty confident the non-storm scenario the EURO is depicting is wrong. Even its ensemble mean has a broad slp center around E PA. Not exactly a UKIE/GGEM solution, but enough to relegate the 0z OP EURO as a major outlier (unless you want to count a few of the GEFS members, which on account of their cold bias are always suppressed).

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Since this isn't phasing, I suspect a consensus will build this weekend as better sampling of the energy comes into play. That is one good thing about non-phased systems(outside the late January 2009 one, I still don't know what the models were thinking on that one lol).

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From IWX:

UPR FLOW WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO ENERGY SET

TO MOVE SE AND EVENTUALLY HOOK NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.

WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUES WITH MODELS WITH ECMWF THE

FURTHEST SOUTH (NO PRECIP FOR THE AREA) VS GFS/GEMNH THAT BRING THE

SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. GEMNH REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH PLACING BULK

OF SNOWFALL INTO WI/MI MUCH LIKE GFS DID A FEW DAYS AGO. GFS REMAINS

FURTHER SOUTH BUT IN MIDDLE OF SOLUTIONS TO WARRANT USING AS A

COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT. CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS WOULD BE

FUTILE GIVEN THE NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH ENERGY NOT FULLY

SAMPLED IN UPPER AIR DATA AS OF YET. SUSPECT THAT WITH TIME...MODELS

WILL CONVERGE ON WHAT MAY EVOLVE INTO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR

SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MIX PRECIP MENTION KEPT MON THROUGH

TUESDAY AND THEN ALL SNOW TUES NGT BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD

DIMINISH.

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People in Northern OH will love the 06z GFS

People in Northern IN aren't complaining either. wink.png

Ahhhhhh....finally something to track. It doesn't look like anything major, but I have been waiting many months. Good luck to everyone in the region, someone should see an accumulating snow.

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Yep, the Euro is definitely an outlier.

I have a good feeling I'm going to be wasting my Thanksgiving away looking through models. :lol:

Every year for me.

Jon

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The 12z GFS ensemble mean is actually PERFECT for SE MI, but you know what an ensemble mean is....some too far NW (ie, rain), some good for nice snow, some suppressed...but at least a storm of some kind should impact someone in the region.

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