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November 26th-29th (Snow?) Storm


Powerball

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We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt.

I think the Euro is the outlier at this point. I'd be a lot more concerned with a really suppressed solution if it still has a couple days from now.

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We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt.

The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.

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I think the Euro is the outlier at this point. I'd be a lot more concerned with a really suppressed solution if it still has a couple days from now.

The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.

Great minds think alike. :lol:

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The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.

IMO, I think he GEM has been the most consistent thus far, I'm just having a hard time buying it, the - PDO what it is, cold air will pour in before the storm gets wrapped up.

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I think even though the Euro is a outlier as compared to other models, I think it's solution is the correct one

Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January.

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Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January.

Backing that up, looking at the GFS Ensembles, there are divergent solutions, with a few looking like the GEM and UKMET. Interestingly, those solutions do not diverge until about 96-102 hrs out, illustrating how much time we are likely going to have to wait until the model discrepancies resolve themselves.

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Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January.

It's really not that cold. there are disjointed pockets of colder air moving South. But along the front, it's really not that cold at all. And it's also November 27th.

The average high is 49 low 33 in STL that day.

Look's like the models all handle the strength of the short wave much differently, the GEM and EURO are light years apart on the piece of energy and subsequent amplification.

The suppression would be even worse if the GFS solutions of the lead Northern stream piece of energy were more like a few days ago with a or without a strong system diving into the trough.

00zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA120.gif?t=1353570962

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As tough as it is to bet against such a superior model, I'm pretty confident the non-storm scenario the EURO is depicting is wrong. Even its ensemble mean has a broad slp center around E PA. Not exactly a UKIE/GGEM solution, but enough to relegate the 0z OP EURO as a major outlier (unless you want to count a few of the GEFS members, which on account of their cold bias are always suppressed).

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From IWX:

UPR FLOW WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO ENERGY SET

TO MOVE SE AND EVENTUALLY HOOK NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.

WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUES WITH MODELS WITH ECMWF THE

FURTHEST SOUTH (NO PRECIP FOR THE AREA) VS GFS/GEMNH THAT BRING THE

SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. GEMNH REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH PLACING BULK

OF SNOWFALL INTO WI/MI MUCH LIKE GFS DID A FEW DAYS AGO. GFS REMAINS

FURTHER SOUTH BUT IN MIDDLE OF SOLUTIONS TO WARRANT USING AS A

COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT. CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS WOULD BE

FUTILE GIVEN THE NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH ENERGY NOT FULLY

SAMPLED IN UPPER AIR DATA AS OF YET. SUSPECT THAT WITH TIME...MODELS

WILL CONVERGE ON WHAT MAY EVOLVE INTO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR

SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MIX PRECIP MENTION KEPT MON THROUGH

TUESDAY AND THEN ALL SNOW TUES NGT BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD

DIMINISH.

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People in Northern OH will love the 06z GFS

People in Northern IN aren't complaining either. wink.png

Ahhhhhh....finally something to track. It doesn't look like anything major, but I have been waiting many months. Good luck to everyone in the region, someone should see an accumulating snow.

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Loving the potentials for this region.

I guess being in the middle is the best place to be 5 days out. Euro doesnt have much of a storm anyway, but what precip does fall is WAY WAY south of us. GGEM has a nice storm tracking NW of us giving us mostly rain. GFS gives us snow, with its ensembles showing everything from a nice snow, to rain, to dry with a suppressed storm (though most do show an appreciable storm). All you can do is wait and hope!

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