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A change to a wintry pattern emerging after November?


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The 12z and 18z GFS are starting to lock into a much colder pattern with troughiness in the east.

About the most accurate prediction I can make is that with further signs of cold the usual suspects will suddenly go quiet like they always do - until a storm misses them by 20 miles and they post to complain about it.

They've already been mysteriously absent of late.

By the way, the 18 and 12z both are showing good troughiness in the east, and it could supress the real moisture a bit after the next strong cold front or two. The 18z is putting out a possible overrunning snow event for the I20 corridor in the super long range with a lot of lake effect over the great lakes and NW flow snow over the OH Valley.

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The 12z and 18z GFS are starting to lock into a much colder pattern with troughiness in the east.

About the most accurate prediction I can make is that with further signs of cold the usual suspects will suddenly go quiet like they always do - until a storm misses them by 20 miles and they post to complain about it.

They've already been mysteriously absent of late.

By the way, the 18 and 12z both are showing good troughiness in the east, and it could supress the real moisture a bit after the next strong cold front or two. The 18z is putting out a possible overrunning snow event for the I20 corridor in the super long range with a lot of lake effect over the great lakes and NW flow snow over the OH Valley.

The GFS does look good but man it's 11 to 12 days out. I really hope it holds the general look. Until then we have a modified cold front coming through in a few days. That will just (maybe) get us dowm to normal.

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The 12z and 18z GFS are starting to lock into a much colder pattern with troughiness in the east.

About the most accurate prediction I can make is that with further signs of cold the usual suspects will suddenly go quiet like they always do - until a storm misses them by 20 miles and they post to complain about it.

They've already been mysteriously absent of late.

By the way, the 18 and 12z both are showing good troughiness in the east, and it could supress the real moisture a bit after the next strong cold front or two. The 18z is putting out a possible overrunning snow event for the I20 corridor in the super long range with a lot of lake effect over the great lakes and NW flow snow over the OH Valley.

I post when I'm in the mood to post. I know you think I have a radar that alerts me to bust potential and compels me to go and post about it, but that's not so.

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I post when I'm in the mood to post. I know you think I have a radar that alerts me to bust potential and compels me to go and post about it, but that's not so.

No. You're just a nattering nabob of negativism. I didn't even call you out by name and wasn't even thinking about you in my post. Guilty conscious much?

The GFS does look good but man it's 11 to 12 days out. I really hope it holds the general look. Until then we have a modified cold front coming through in a few days. That will just (maybe) get us dowm to normal.

It's the trend you're looking for. Yes it's a ways out but as with the GFS you want to look at the trend. The trend is towards more troughiness (yes trough, it is NOT spelled 'trof') in the east according to the op and the ensembles. It's showing a lot of variability in the long range but it is showing a trend towards much colder weather. The devil will be in the details later. Plus climatology is on our side. Odds are good for strong fronts or polar vortexes to come down this year, and it would be a very unusual December if one didn't.

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Looks like the Euro loves the idea of the GOA death star vortex. It appears to have plans to keep that there all winter.

I'm continuing my thinking from Friday night. I'm going to assume no SUSTAINED cold til at least 1/1. That is not a forecast, but rather an assumption due to uncertainty. If we happen to get it late in Dec., great! If not, great for walking! A winner either way. There's always a good side to not getting sustained cold in winter even though I'd like to see the sustained cold.

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I'm continuing my thinking from Friday night. I'm going to assume no SUSTAINED cold til at least 1/1. That is not a forecast, but rather an assumption due to uncertainty. If we happen to get it late in Dec., great! If not, great for walking! A winner either way. There's always a good side to not getting sustained cold in winter even though I'd like to see the sustained cold.

That is a good, positive, and reasoned way to look at it. I, on the other had will not accept anything other than sustained cold and snow, and my will will be bent against warmth with every fiber of my being.

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