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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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Another upper teens morning at my place. Yesterday had 41/19, about -5 for the day and now -1 for Nov. Might've been a bit colder this AM, as it was still 19-20 with clouds at 6:45 when I left for AUG.

Today is D7 with zero precip, fairly long stretch for Nov, though in 11/2004 I had a 14-day dry spell. Given that forecasts appear to be dry thru Thanksgiving weekend atm, we may challenge that 2004 streak. November is my only month that's never had under 2" precip (lowest is 2.37" in 2001), but unless something changes, we'll end that run this year as I'm currently at 0.80".

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I stopped in for some turns on Mt. Mansfield today, and can pass along some observations. Around midday the temperature was just a couple of degrees above freezing at the base (~1,500’) and the resort was making snow from top to bottom. For my ascent I took the Nosedive route, and found the following depths in terms of natural snow:

1,500’: 0”

1,800’: T

2,000’: 0.5”

2,500’: 2”

3,000’: 3-4”

3,600’: 4”

Today’s report from the stake indicates 4” of depth, so that’s pretty consistent with what I found. One could certainly ski the natural snow on Nosedive up above 3,000’, which was actually a nice combination of powder and some surface hoar, and I did see a couple of tracks from previous skiers, but you’d still want to use your rock skis. I descended via the snowmaking terrain however – there are certainly no coverage issues there and they continue to crank it out with these temperatures and dew points. I’ve added a couple of pictures from my outing below, and others are available in my full report from today.

15NOV12A.jpg

15NOV12E.jpg

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16F this morning at Morrisville-Stowe.... 18F Saint Johnsbury...19F at Montpelier.

9F at Saranac Lake. Brrrrrr.

Big inversion this morning though from mid/upper teens in the mountain valleys to near 30F at the summits.

With this high pressure I wonder if the inversion gets worse. This is like last year around this time when there was snow cover in the valleys and not in the higher terrain due to inversions. I still remember it being like 20-25F in town and a whopping 50F at 1,600ft in a strong breeze.

Here are photos from last November's inversion... still one of the oddest things I've ever seen around here. No snow on the ground above like 1,300ft but solid snow cover down at 700-1,200ft. The lowest elevations had the most snow depth days last November.

All these photos are from November 27 last year...Near my place in town had a solid 4-6" on the ground and then by the time I hit 1,300ft there wasn't a patch of snow to be seen.

1,300ft...and you can even see a little white off in the valley.

Usually this photo is the other way around...with the fields in the lower left of the photo being white and the fields down along the river in town being brown. Snow increasing as you head lower in elevation, lol.

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Even with a very low sun angle, aspect of terrain still makes a huge difference this time of year in snow preservation...

These photos were taken around 12pm today...and its a good example of how I can post one photo of the ski area that looks very wintery, and yet on the same day there's another part of the ski area that looks the opposite of wintery, haha.

Stowe's Spruce Peak faces due south and is snow free all the way up to the top there at 3,600ft. There's some scattered snow way up at the summit, but for all purposes its bare to 3,600ft. Also note how its in full sunlight...like a totally different world from the other two photos below.

Now compare that photo with these photos of Stowe's Mount Mansfield terrain that largely faces NE to N. Looks much different with 2-4 inches of snow all the way down to 1,800ft. This photo was taken at the same time as the photo above.

Its just amazing to me that even with such a low sun angle this time of year, one mountain is bare all the way to 3,600ft, while right across the road Mansfield has natural snow all the way down to 1,800ft. This is how the place builds a ridiculous natural snowpack in the upper, shaded elevations (where the stake is) because it doesn't see the sun from like October until the end of February. This photo below here shows how Mansfield's terrain is in the shade/shadows and it was only noon. The sun sets on this terrain around 10am in the morning this time of year...only seeing sun for roughly 3 hours a day.

Its like having two separate ski areas.... one that's sunny, warm, and only sees half the snowpack...while the ski terrain on Mansfield is cold, shaded, and has amazing snow preservation.

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17/13 this morning down at 730ft with 23F at 1,550ft and 28F at 4,000ft. Pretty classic inversion.

Last 5 low temps have been: 20F, 18F, 16F, 21F, 17F

Average is 26-27F... so 5 nights of 16-21F is pretty solid.

The ground has been rock hard lately and the frost isn't even melting anymore during the daytime on north facing aspects. Gotta think ground temps are pretty freakin' cold after this stretch.

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17/13 this morning down at 730ft with 23F at 1,550ft and 28F at 4,000ft. Pretty classic inversion.

Last 5 low temps have been: 20F, 18F, 16F, 21F, 17F

Average is 26-27F... so 5 nights of 16-21F is pretty solid.

The ground has been rock hard lately and the frost isn't even melting anymore during the daytime on north facing aspects. Gotta think ground temps are pretty freakin' cold after this stretch.

Low teens at my place, probably tying (or breaking) the month's low of 13 on 11/7. Last 4 days have been quite even-flow, with highs 41, 38, 39, 40, and lows 19, 18, 19, 18.

Seems like every 2nd gfs run has a sleetfest for early Dec, but they all have the cold rain for late Nov. Still way out there.

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Just about the best possible weather for hiking ... lows in teens and highs in the 30s. Last week's torch killed off the snow except in patches on the high summits. Here's a look at Crawford Notch from the bare ledges on Crawford Dome.

Just went through there the other evening (Friday) but thanks to sunset being so early I didn't see anything. Beautiful view!

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I want more snow... the extent of the natural snow on Mansfield is about 3-4" (from the 4" that fell last Monday night following the 60-70 degree temps that wiped out the previous natural snow), and judging by bare south facing slopes, the natural snowfall is only on east and north facing areas in the Greens.

At least we can ride the chairlift up over natural snow cover instead of being brown to the summit.

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We thought that we were done with our work days up at Bolton Valley this season, but with the good weather and a glade area in need of some touching up before opening, one of our coordinators called an impromptu session today. Our work brought us up to around the 2,800’ elevation, so I can pass along snow observations up to that level. Similar to what I saw at Stowe on Thursday, snowpack starts at roughly the 1,700’ – 1,800’ elevation along the Bolton Valley Access Road, just a bit above the Timberline Base. The snow depth increases pretty quickly after that, and there was an inch or two around in the village at 2,100’. The depth increased to a more consistent 2+ inches by 2,800’, with a big change in the higher elevations being that those areas with the most southern exposure that might be melted out below, were supporting good coverage. I’m not sure how high the freezing level went today, but the ground was frozen everywhere. The current snow is also generally fluffy and winter-like – I suspect that the dry air that’s been in the area has really helped to preserve it. Anyway, it was a nice morning of tromping around in the snow, even if it made footing somewhat more difficult. Being up in the high country today with the extensive snow cover and cold temperatures definitely attested to winter already being here; I think the big addition that’s needed on the 25th, or whenever we get a pattern change, is an influx of wintry precipitation. On that note, precipitation is finally starting to appear in the point forecasts after our current lull; Mt. Mansfield point forecast at the end of the week:

  • Friday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  • Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  • Saturday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

I also grabbed some text from the BTV forecast discussion earlier today, so it certainly seems like things will be changing:

IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO

SATURDAY AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. HAVE

INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO

CLEAR THE AREA...THUS DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO

MENTION THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS

AND PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL

NORMALS.

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d10-15 ec ens look possibly wintry for NNE. Chance for something 28/29th and maybe into early Dec. Cold too with widespread 20s/30s for highs. It's coming.

I agree. Lots of support for this idea. Aside from the fact that it just likes to make powz on/about the first few days of dec. (esp. 12/15). Consistently over the last few days all the major global weather models have shown signs of east coast storminess from day 10-15. Makes total sense. This boring, stable pattern can't last forever...bring on the storms.

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Coldest temp of the season so far here...20F...still a late shot at 10s.

The euro gives ME and N NH a weenie late blooming coastal next weekend, but the ens aren't on board. There's still time to work more on the 28/29th event. The 00z euro was definitely a littler colder/south of 12z and closer to th ens.

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Looking good for the mountain peeps this weekend ... should be able to wring out a few inches of upslope for 'freak and the boys.

Yeah, I was just listening to Roger Hill’s Forecast, and starting Saturday into Saturday night, he indicated the potential for accumulating snow down to the valley floors and more substantial amounts for the mountains. We may have to watch out for holiday travel issues on Sunday morning, but there doesn’t appear to be much to worry about until that point.

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