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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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3.75" here at 1050ft. Buddy called from 1300ft and they are up to 5.25". Wow this is over performing here. Still moderate snow.

This seems the to be the theme of our few snow events of the season so far. Each time we have been forecasted to get a few flurries there seems to be a dusting - 1". I may be just thinking wishfully but hey, whatever gets me through the night! Anyway, this may be overperforming in terms of accumulation but the timing was forecasted dead on. For the last several days, Roger Hil (WXHeights, red tag here) has been saying it would start at the evening commute in the Barre-Montpelier area and it started dumping right when I was leaving work in Montpelier at 4:30. Up to 3" and still coming down lightly. 22F

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Awesome, not bad for a 30 second snow with the front.

Yeah, I saw that in the forecast discussion. It made me smile as I felt pretty certain we would do better than that. (But not this well...)

Not sure we fully need that brand of sarcasm in a forecast discussion, though.

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Yeah, I saw that in the forecast discussion. It made me smile as I felt pretty certain we would do better than that. (But not this well...)

Not sure we fully need that brand of sarcasm in a forecast discussion, though.

How much you got down?

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What an awful wx disco comment that was at btv. West side of greens looks like 6-12 inches. Once again the greens win. I'd like to see what wildcat area gets they were prog'd .50 qpf and ratios are huge so let's see, if it verifys. Mt wash had like a .78 on the btv wrf modeled, so that would be like 2 feet w these ratios

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What an awful wx disco comment that was at btv. West side of greens looks like 6-12 inches

000

FXUS61 KBTV 292048

AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

348 PM EST THU NOV 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILLMOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING.

SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SQUALLS WILL ACCOMPANY THE

FRONT, RESULTING IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE COLD,

THOUGH DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM

SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A WARMING TREND

ALONG WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 340 PM EST THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS JUST CROSSING THE

INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS I TYPE. GOT TO BE HONEST, IT DOESN`T HAVE

TOO MUCH WITH IT. PERHAPS 30 SECONDS WORTH OF SNOW. STILL WILL

LIKELY SEE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT AS IT

PUSHES SOUTH AND COMES INTO A REGION WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE

(THAT WOULD BE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE VERMONT -- WHERE WE`VE

HAD SOME LIGHT SNOW THE PAST FEW HOURS).

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL QUICKLY FLIP TO NORTHWEST AND

GUST 20-25 KNOTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES. SO WE

WILL VERY WELL STILL SEE A FEW SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES

FALL BELOW FREEZING.

CONTINUE TO RELY ON 4KM LOCAL WRF RUN FOR THE SCENARIO, THOUGH IT

SEEMS TO BE 1 TO 2 HOURS SLOW AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THAT IN THE

GRIDS. FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE BURLINGTON `METRO` AREA BETWEEN

5P AND 6P. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMISH AS THE FRONT PUSHES

SOUTH, SO SOUTHERN VERMONT WONT SEE ALL THAT MUCH.

BEEN ADJUSTING THE QPF DOWN, SO NOW IT LOOKS LIKE NOTHING MORE

THAN 0.05" MELTED AT MOST. RUNNING THAT THROUGH A ROUGHLY 20:1

RATIO WHICH IS EXPECTED IN THESE SITUATIONS GIVES ABOUT 1". EXPECT

SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT, SO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE UPWARDS

OF 2 TO 3

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What an awful wx disco comment that was at btv. West side of greens looks like 6-12 inches. Once again the greens win. I'd like to see what wildcat area gets they were prog'd .50 qpf and ratios are huge so let's see, if it verifys. Mt wash had like a .78 on the btv wrf modeled, so that would be like 2 feet w these ratios

Even here in the NEK we have 3" at 700ft, 4" at 1,050ft, 6" at 1300ft, and 7" at 1800ft at Burke mountain. Probably 8-9" at the top. Crazy over performer. Strong cross barrier flow and ample lower level moisture combined with the upward motion generated by the front.

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Ctsnowstorm awesome snow for you there, impressed by the degree that elevation helpd. I'm on my cell but anyone have the latest obs at mt. Washington I envision a blizzard from hell at the summit.

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Steve that disco is lol worthy. What is ur take on the whites, bretton woods/wildcat area, I bet northern coos get 4-6+

Their earlier forecasts were at least more on target though (from their facebook):

2q3sxex.png

2v7z7gg.png

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3F at the house this morning with 4.25" of snow from the event (uncleared snow board) and a snow depth of 6.0". Clear skies and fresh powder has allowed the temp to plummet. Had no idea we would be near 0F this morning... MVL at 3/0 right now.

6F at 1,500ft with 7.2" wind packed snow on the snow board at the base of the mountain. Groomers report up to 12" at the summit. Calling it 7-11" for now.

Looks beautiful out there... full on after snowstorm full moon look with sparkling white everywhere.

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3F at the house this morning with 4.25" of snow from the event (uncleared snow board) and a snow depth of 6.0". Clear skies and fresh powder has allowed the temp to plummet. Had no idea we would be near 0F this morning... MVL at 3/0 right now.

6F at 1,500ft with 7.2" wind packed snow on the snow board at the base of the mountain. Groomers report up to 12" at the summit. Calling it 7-11" for now.

Looks beautiful out there... full on after snowstorm full moon look with sparkling white everywhere.

Damn dude--3F? Cold!

Down to 9F here--our first single digits of the season.

3" of snow last evening...even here, east of the spine, gasp! ;)

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Damn dude--3F? Cold!

MVL is now down to 1/-2!!

I wonder if the ASOS can kiss 0F for the first time this season out in the valley. Perfect combo of fluffy snow in the evening, then clear/calm conditions after midnight.

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Damn dude--3F? Cold!

Down to 9F here--our first single digits of the season.

3" of snow last evening...even here, east of the spine, gasp! ;)

MVL is now down to 1/-2!!

I wonder if the ASOS can kiss 0F for the first time this season out in the valley. Perfect combo of fluffy snow in the evening, then clear/calm conditions after midnight.

6.1° at my house and a final total of 3". Of course because it snowed right when I was coming home, all the melting snow on my car froze up. It was quite a chore chipping it open this morning. I need a garage.

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Even here in the NEK we have 3" at 700ft, 4" at 1,050ft, 6" at 1300ft, and 7" at 1800ft at Burke mountain. Probably 8-9" at the top. Crazy over performer. Strong cross barrier flow and ample lower level moisture combined with the upward motion generated by the front.

I think we had elements of three types of forcing to help maximize this event. You had the WAA ahead of the wave aloft that would have generated some light mood snows regardless. Then you had the WINDEX like enhancement along the Arctic boundary. Finally, you had the upslope component that lingered well after Arctic fropa.

I have to say the local WRFs, although a bit bullish on QPF, were definitely the closest to reality in the end. I think if I had taken our local WRF QPF verbatim two days ago, it would have given me around a foot of snow on the rock pile. Not bad for the far end of its forecast range.

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MVL is now down to 1/-2!!

I wonder if the ASOS can kiss 0F for the first time this season out in the valley. Perfect combo of fluffy snow in the evening, then clear/calm conditions after midnight.

currently zero SLK, 6 inches of snow at whiteface last night. low was -2

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what is with this "over performing" junk...this front looked juicy as heck all week. The high res models looked great. Anything in the 4-6 range was super predictable...

4" at 1000ft? Definitely not expected. 7.5" at 1800ft? Definitely over performed. Guidance called for 2-3" tops below 1500ft with 3-5" above that. 9" at the top of Burke was also over the projected 5ish".

Oh yeah, and it was 3F last night lol

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