NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 I noticed that around 5 of the SREF members for 21z show greater than 0.5" of liquid falling as snow in UNV... http://nws.met.psu.e...mes/Plumes.html Looks like this storm will have some of everything! Erhm, says the max is .09"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Most of the region will be sustained 40mph+, pretty much unheard of for this region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Most of the region will be sustained 40mph+, pretty much unheard of for this region.. But apparently not a big deal according to U-Park emergency management since it's "not passing overhead" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Erhm, says the max is .09"... You're looking at plumes for the first city on that list which is Allentown. You can see the plumes for all major cities of PA (or any state for that matter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Erhm, says the max is .09"... ? I see a max of 1.61" with a mean of 0.30". http://nws.met.psu.edu/plumes/20121028/srefgifs/21Z/StateCollege,PA-ptype.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 WOW...Unreal. 40 is a really gusty day around hear....sustained I have never seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 You're looking at plumes for the first city on that list which is Allentown. You can see the plumes for all major cities of PA (or any state for that matter). Ah, I see it now, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We all thought the models were overestimating pressure 3 days ago, that an intensifying 950 mb storm at such a high latitude couldn't happen. We were all wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Oh dear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 OMG...that is scary Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Screw 60, let's go for 70... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Screw 60, let's go for 70... TUESDAY...RAIN. STRONG WINDS. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 40S. EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Lol that didn't take too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Had to save some images of Sandy...it is simply amazing to see. I have a hunch this thing will be an overperformer, I'll probably be wrong, but wow is it something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Things still pretty much on track, with CTP noting bumping up QPF somewhat as well as mentioning about a potential late day/evening changeover to snow starting in Somerset County and spreading across some of the Allegheny plateau with potential for >6" above 2200'. Could eventually be enough for CTP to expand a winter storm warning (or even blizzard warning, if they factor potential wind) into Somerset County with potentially an advisory for Cambria. That would be my educated guess on that matter. I also wouldn't rule out a late changeover for some of the immediatly adjacent central off the Alleghenies, especially on the ridges (Brush, Bald Eagle, Tussey, 7 Mountains, etc). If that happened there probably wouldn't be enough QPF left to have much of any appreciable accums off. But the overall snow impact will be dictated on the track and evolution of Sandys continued extratropical transition. Amazing that the prospect of yet another late October snow for some currently resides a distant third on the list of major impacts with wind and potential flooding topping it. Flooding wise I expect area wide minor-moderate flooding.. with the more minor nature in the north. When Sandy starts getting close we'll have to monitor position of what will likely be a ribbon of excessive rains located near where the center tracks as it hammers directly into PA. Areas that end up under that could see more major flooding issues. In terms of the region as a whole, any major flooding that crops up will be of the more localized manner.. mainly on smaller and intermediate tributaries. I don't think we'll see the main stem of the Susquehanna misbehave too badly, although I wouldn't rule out minor flooding on that. Current river forecasts keep it well within action stage for the time being. You know how these things can go dealing with a moisture laden tropical system, keep an eye on things if your flood prone. Either way, there's still going to big issues in the poor drainage and urban flooding department. Winds continue to be the main story for us, which is something I really hadn't been expecting several days ago. I thought models were going a little too crazy with the deepening of this system like most but here we are.. with the latest pressure 950 (thought i saw possibly 946 mb). There has been dropsondes and SMFR's from the hurricane hunters that have been picking up very high winds not too far off the deck. Saw in the main Sandy threat a recent drop had 106kts at 872mb. Just a huge strong wind field with this. Number wise for us Sus valley and south central could see 70-75mph max gusts at the height with rest of the central 60-70mph. Its going to be a long 24-36 hours comin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Things still pretty much on track, with CTP noting bumping up QPF somewhat as well as mentioning about a potential late day/evening changeover to snow starting in Somerset County and spreading across some of the Allegheny plateau with potential for >6" above 2200'. Could eventually be enough for CTP to expand a winter storm warning (or even blizzard warning, if they factor potential wind) into Somerset County with potentially an advisory for Cambria. That would be my educated guess on that matter. I also wouldn't rule out a late changeover for some of the immediatly adjacent central off the Alleghenies, especially on the ridges (Brush, Bald Eagle, Tussey, 7 Mountains, etc). If that happened there probably wouldn't be enough QPF left to have much of any appreciable accums off. But the overall snow impact will be dictated on the track and evolution of Sandys continued extratropical transition. Amazing that the prospect of yet another late October snow for some currently resides a distant third on the list of major impacts with wind and potential flooding topping it. Flooding wise I expect area wide minor-moderate flooding.. with the more minor nature in the north. When Sandy starts getting close we'll have to monitor position of what will likely be a ribbon of excessive rains located near where the center tracks as it hammers directly into PA. Areas that end up under that could see more major flooding issues. In terms of the region as a whole, any major flooding that crops up will be of the more localized manner.. mainly on smaller and intermediate tributaries. I don't think we'll see the main stem of the Susquehanna misbehave too badly, although I wouldn't rule out minor flooding on that. Current river forecasts keep it well within action stage for the time being. You know how these things can go dealing with a moisture laden tropical system, keep an eye on things if your flood prone. Either way, there's still going to big issues in the poor drainage and urban flooding department. Winds continue to be the main story for us, which is something I really hadn't been expecting several days ago. I thought models were going a little too crazy with the deepening of this system like most but here we are.. with the latest pressure 950 (thought i saw possibly 946 mb). There has been dropsondes and SMFR's from the hurricane hunters that have been picking up very high winds not too far off the deck. Saw in the main Sandy threat a recent drop had 106kts at 872mb. Just a huge strong wind field with this. Number wise for us Sus valley and south central could see 70-75mph max gusts at the height with rest of the central 60-70mph. Its going to be a long 24-36 hours comin up. 5am advisory is 946mb and 85mph winds though recon found a few 91mph obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 5am advisory is 946mb and 85mph winds though recon found a few 91mph obs Wow that's unreal!! No rain or wind here yet this morning. DC, Maryland and Delaware are getting pounded looking at the radar. Was looking at the stream predictions for here. It appears, unless the system stalls we should be ok. http://water.weather...dex.php?wfo=ctp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That is amazing considering the fact that: 1. Penn State is an institute of higher learning staffed by what one would think would be reasonable intellectuals. 2. has a reputable meteorolgical department and program. What is it with people of influence and stature (Bloomberg for example) irresponsibly downplaying what could be an historic, and potentially dangerous, storm? Lol that didn't take too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Traffic was lite on the way in this morning, i wonder how many businesses shut in Harrisburg, did the state close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Did something change? Watched local tv guy said no big deal, maybe a gust or two to 45 or 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That is amazing considering the fact that: 1. Penn State is an institute of higher learning staffed by what one would think would be reasonable intellectuals. 2. has a reputable meteorolgical department and program. What is it with people of influence and stature (Bloomberg for example) irresponsibly downplaying what could be an historic, and potentially dangerous, storm? does anyone actually think the PSU administration is capable of acting responsibly and in the best interests of the students/University? Have the events of the past year already been forgotten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Did something change? Watched local tv guy said no big deal, maybe a gust or two to 45 or 50. Was he talking about today, or the duration? NWS forecast for williamsport- Today - Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 50. Windy, with a north wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 24 to 29 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight - Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 42. Very windy, with a north wind around 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tuesday - Occasional rain. High near 47. Windy, with a northeast wind 33 to 38 mph becoming east 23 to 28 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like we'll be dryslotted in an hour or two, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like we'll be dryslotted in an hour or two, I've been dryslotted since about 9:00PM last night. It rained (0.09") for about an hour and a half after supper. Since then nothing. The roads were even dry when I woke up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That is amazing considering the fact that: 1. Penn State is an institute of higher learning staffed by what one would think would be reasonable intellectuals. 2. has a reputable meteorolgical department and program. What is it with people of influence and stature (Bloomberg for example) irresponsibly downplaying what could be an historic, and potentially dangerous, storm? West Virginia University is just as stupid. I'm sitting at work since I'm required to be here since the campus is not closed (Logic being, we're not in the path of the storm since we're not even close to the coast). At the moment it's moderate rain with light winds, probably gusting to max 20 mph (enough to get lights to flicker occasionally), but we're not even close to getting the best of sandy yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Great timing - KCCX is down - has been for 30 min + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Altoona closed and the Facebook Riot continues on Penn State's page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy is getting stronger!! Winds on GFS are just insane and so is the rain. This is going to be insane. By 2pm I am going to be running around like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy is getting stronger!! Winds on GFS are just insane and so is the rain. This is going to be insane. By 2pm I am going to be running around like crazy. red bull my friend, red bull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The state is shutdown across all the Commonweath. For PSU to remain open - Ivan maybe understand until noon or early afternoon today - is completely unfathomable. And yes WITF is reporting gusts 45-55 only for done reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.