MDstorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sandy looking better organized over the last 3 hours. Let's see how wide to the right she swings over the next 24 hours....that will determine where she eventually makes landfall. Buckle up for what appears to be a wild ride over the next 4 days. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 6Z NAM coming in even more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Christ... this right here is just crazy. Maybe never see this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Flood watch, you guys FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 439 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ054-271645- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.121029T0600Z-121030T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...ALEXANDRIA... FALLS CHURCH 439 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. * FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING * SANDY IS PROJECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE MONDAY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES IN THE I-95 METROPOLITAN CORRIDOR. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. * EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD CAUSE CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE QUICKLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND FLOOD LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS MAIN STEM RIVERS COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING DURING MIDWEEK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SANDY HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 020/09. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS SANDY WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHARP NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL...BUT THE MOST NOTABLE TREND THIS CYCLE IS TOWARD A FASTER MOTION AS THE CYCLONE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AND SHOWS THE CENTER INLAND AT 72 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE AND LANDFALL LOCATION...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Flash Flood Watch here..no wind advisories. PHL has one for their forecast area. KInda odd, but maybe LWX is thinking we're outside the watch window? Eh, I dunno, but I'm sure these guys got a handle on it. Looks like the worst for us is Monday PM into Tuesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Flash Flood Watch here..no wind advisories. PHL has one for their forecast area. KInda odd, but maybe LWX is thinking we're outside the watch window? Eh, I dunno, but I'm sure these guys got a handle on it. Looks like the worst for us is Monday PM into Tuesday afternoon I don't see why basically all of Maryland wouldn't have High wind watches. Only need Sustained at 40mph for 3 hrs and/or gust to 58mph+, both which I think is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Christ... this right here is just crazy. Maybe never see this again. I remember a few years ago the buzz word one winter for a few weeks was "triple phaser". Is that what we're potentially seeing with this setup? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Flash Flood Watch here..no wind advisories. PHL has one for their forecast area. KInda odd, but maybe LWX is thinking we're outside the watch window? Eh, I dunno, but I'm sure these guys got a handle on it. Looks like the worst for us is Monday PM into Tuesday afternoon Don't worry. I just issued a travelers advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 is getting beyond scary I think... bought a generator thinking Murphy's Law would come into play... looking like a solid investment! thanks to all for the updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 7.7" on the 06z NAM at DCA. Yikes. 06z GFS has much lower winds at 850mb. (at DCA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 A few days back I remember models showing the strongest of the winds to the SW of the c.o.c. But the wind maps from the more recent models don't seem to portray it that way... any idea why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 3-5 inches in LWX flood watch seems a tad low to me - I'd think we could get higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 And shes back to a 'Cane.... Central Pressure of 960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What are the thoughts on NHC leaving it up to the local offices for watch/warning/advisory products? With the recent intensification I might be inclined to say public would take more seriously with legit TS warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm sure that today, by sometime this morning, they will put out the appropriate alerts/watches/warning. LWX won't leave us high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Point and click is interesting. Sustained about 40mph for almost 24 hours. Interesting that LWX decided not to talk much about wind in their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ocean looking angry this morning http://www.avalonpier.com/wavecam.html I hate this storm already; I know I'm losing power, I always do in these things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Pressure is plummeting on Sandy. Recon last pass 957mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Also winds are strongest on the SW side, which we maybe on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Really seems a poor decision to pass headlines off to local WFOs. End up losing all central coordination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Point and click is interesting. Sustained about 40mph for almost 24 hours. Interesting that LWX decided not to talk much about wind in their discussion. My point and click for Mon-Tues says "very windy". I live in north MoCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 My point and click for Mon-Tues says "very windy". I live in north MoCo. I was looking at the hourly forecast graph. A sample click in northern Montgomery shows a similar length, but even windier. Sustained at 48 mph Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So models had this as about a 972mb at 8am and it is 957mb. Wonder how that will change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I was looking at the hourly forecast graph. A sample click in northern Montgomery shows a similar length, but even windier. Sustained at 48 mph Tuesday afternoon. Weather Underground is showing highest winds during the period at 20 to 30 with gusts to 40 for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So models had this as about a 972mb at 8am and it is 957mb. Wonder how that will change things. If I recall correctly, the Euro has been modeling the storm stronger and shows a further South solution. My guess would be that a stronger system will not be as sensitive to the upper level winds that swing the storm far out to the East before the recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro ensembles were S NJ into C NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If I recall correctly, the Euro has been modeling the storm stronger and shows a further South solution. My guess would be that a stronger system will not be as sensitive to the upper level winds that swing the storm far out to the East before the recurve. Wouldn't that same logic make it harder for the trough to capture it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wouldn't that same logic make it harder for the trough to capture it? Not sure about the pressure part but the tropical vs exptropical means a lot irt to track and capture. From what I read, if the storm maintains trop characteristics longer then it will take longer to phase. The one think I keep weeding through threads in is what happens if it's stronger but xtropical? I think someone said the phase happens earlier and it makes the turn earlier. Don't quote me on this. On another note, sat loops looking very impressive right now. Especially on the NW side of the center and the expanse to the w - sw. It's a very large cylcone already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You would also think a stronger storm could push through that NE block a little better too. The post storm analysis will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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