andyhb Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Was just about to post that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 00z ECMWF paints a 10+" bullseye over NW MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I agree with Baro here. It is really dry in GFK, we were upgraded to exceptional drought a few days ago and with the warm surface temps and overall dryness of the area I think it will be tough to get more than 3" even with the dynamic cooling taking place after the change over around 00Z. Personally though, I'm interested to see if we get some CSI later on this evening and tomorrow morning. Bufkit sounding for KGFK earlier showed the nose of the Theta-E advection coinciding with the diffluence at 300mb and produced around 400J/Kg, so it is certainly a possibility. Not to belittle the drought here but I we were just updated to "extreme" not "exceptional". Its bad up here but not quite THAT bad yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Looks like Larimore MN has switched over to heavy snow at 35 degrees with Grand Forks knocking on the door at 38 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Rain Snow mix in GFK(NW side anyways). I drove out to the airport and they're mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 pretty cool that temps are still in the 60's as close as 50 miles NW of the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Changed over to all snow over the last half hour to 45 minutes here in Grand Forks. Cars are coated, but it's going to take some pretty intense rates (which I suspect we will see for at least a couple of hours) to accumulate on the roads. Somewhere in the 3-5" ranges seems likely I would think. Somewhere to the northeast, between GFK and Roseau or so should be in the sweet spot with a solid 12+". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Snow has coated the ground here. Coming down at a steady clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 SmartCast Update: Tracking areas of Hallock, Thief River Falls, Swede Carlson, and Grand Forks with the greatest snow potential for next 24 hours. Grand Forks: 10Z-17Z Looking Overcast at 500Ft, visby around ½ mile, and moderate Snow, then diminishing after 17Z. Potential to see up to 4.2” of additional snowfall Hallock 10Z-00Z Overcast at 300Ft, visby around 1 mile, moderate snow, winds out of the NW at 25G35MPH. Snow rates of .6” per hour. After 00Z Light Snow, winds NW 28G41MPH, Overcast at 500FT with Visibility around 3 miles. Potential to see up to 5.6” of additional snowfall. River Falls: 12Z-22Z Overcast at 500Ft, visby between 1-3 miles, moderate snow, winds out of the NW at 25G41MPH. Snow rates of .7” per hour with periods of 1.4” rates possible. After 22Z, continue Overcast at 700Ft, visby holding at 3 miles with light snow. Winds WNW at 25G35MPH through 10Z. Total snow accumulation through 05/10Z is 10” Swede Carlson Fld: 15Z-22Z Overcast skies at 400Ft, visby around 1 ¼ mile, with moderate snow. Winds will be NW a 25G38MPH Snow rates around .8”, with isolated pockets of 1” rates. After 22Z Overcast at 700Ft, visby around 3 miles, with light snow. Winds WNW at 25G35MPH. Temperatures will be at or just above freezing which will limit accumulation. Total Snowfall will be 5.5” Complete Output: http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Grand Forks @7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Are those the apartments north of University on the west side of campus? Not a great view from the webcam, but any white is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Are those the apartments north of University on the west side of campus? Not a great view from the webcam, but any white is nice to see. Correct, right next to the RR tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Very impressive storm, especially so early in the season. Hopefully someone will end up with a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Very impressive storm, especially so early in the season. Hopefully someone will end up with a foot. I'm not sure it'll happen. Temps are at or above freezing, it was 80 degrees 2 days ago so the surfaces are melting a ton too. Lots of snow has fallen since 3 am for me but even with the good snowfall rates its melting quickly. I'm thinking 9-10 inches top end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 The best snows will be in areas that probably don't have much of a spotter network, so reports might be hard to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 SmartCast 13Z Update: Tracking Hallock, Thief River Falls, Crookston, and Grand Forks as highest threat for heaviest snowfall Hallock: Moderate to Heavy Snow from 13Z-21Z, Ceilings at 400Ft, Visby ¼ mile, with winds NW 26G38MPH. Snow rates of .5”, with tempo rates of 1/3” per hour possible. After 21Z, Light Snow, ceilings around 700Ft, Visby 1 ½ to 3 miles, winds WNW 25G35MPH. Additional Snowfall possible is 5.8”, temperatures will flirt at or just above freezing. Grand Forks: Moderate Snow from 13Z to 19Z, Ceilings at 500Ft, Visby at ¼ to ¾ mile, with winds NW at 30G42MPH. Snowfall rates of .5”, tempo 1.6” per hour possible. After 21Z, light snow tapering off, Ceilings 1,500Ft, Visby ¾ to 2 miles, winds WNW 20G30MPH. Additional Snowfall Possible will be 2.5”, temperatures holding around or just above freezing. Thief River Falls: Moderate to Heavy Snow from 13Z to 19Z, Ceilings at 500Ft, Visby ½ to ¾ mile, with winds NW at 30G45MPH. Snow rates of .8”, tempo of 2.1” per hour possible. Additional snowfall possible is 13.5” Crookston: Moderate Snow from 13Z to 18Z, Ceilings at 200Ft, Visby ¼ mile, with winds NW at 30G42MPH. Snow rates of .8” per hour, tempo 1.9” per hour possible. Additional Snowfall possible of 4.8”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 It looks to me like things are winding down quicker than expected. Roseau's point predicts 10-14", but given the current obs of light snow/34F and the way this is winding down, I don't know how that's possible. Looks like only 4 hours or so of snow left at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 3.5" storm total in Grand Forks. Not bad for October 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Here's our video from the snow event. All residential areas were in the city limits of Grand Forks and the middle of nowhere shots were out about 5 miles east of the border. The storm was a bit of a let down, but it always had high bust potential and I wouldn't call it a bust. It was still really incredible seeing this much snow this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Wow, about where we expected the heaviest snow. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FGF&product=PNS&issuedby=FGF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 14" of snow is just nuts for this time of year, hell thats a lot for any time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Evidently someplace did get hammered. Pretty limited area though. Yeah that 3.5 inches in Grand Forks is down to patchy half inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Just a slushy coating of snow here in Winnipeg today, with about 0.65 inches of rain and melted snow, our greatest precip amount in over 6 weeks. Snow picks up rapidly east of the city with 4-8" of snow towards the Ontario and Minnesota borders. Maximum reported was 10" in Vita MB near the Minnesota border, a town that was evacuated just two days ago due to a wildfire brought on by high winds and tinder dry conditions. In that respect, the snow today was most welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Here's our video from the snow event. All residential areas were in the city limits of Grand Forks and the middle of nowhere shots were out about 5 miles east of the border. The storm was a bit of a let down, but it always had high bust potential and I wouldn't call it a bust. It was still really incredible seeing this much snow this early. Get used to it. If you take into full perspective though, 2-4" is impressive for this time of year. GFK and those areas hardly ever jackpot for snow amounts. It takes huge Gulf Lows (Christmas 2009 for example) and very localized mesoscale forcings. GFK jackpots, if anything, with ground blizzards Dec-Feb, even the best rarely ever drop more than 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 The northwest winds on the backside of the low have induced a lake effect snow band off of Lake of the Woods. 3-5" predicted with a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Have to love seeing green leaves on trees in the middle of a snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Have to love seeing green leaves on trees in the middle of a snowstorm! Take a look back at the October storm we got in the northeast last year. First time Fall foliage was ruined by 8" of snow Crazy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 First major winter storm of the season to impact e SD & much of MN tonight thru sunday. Blizzard conditions likely over western MN on sunday with storm total 5-8" of snow. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 8 2012 ...A STRONG STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE REGION IT WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE SYSTEM AND HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD LATER EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-090215- /O.CON.KABR.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-121209T1200Z/ /O.CON.KABR.BZ.W.0002.121209T1200Z-121210T0000Z/ TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK- CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...ABERDEEN... BRITTON...SISSETON...WEBSTER...REDFIELD...CLARK...WATERTOWN... MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...CLEAR LAKE 1202 PM CST SAT DEC 8 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY... ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY... * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...15 TO 20 MPH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOWFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VERY COLD AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES BELOW ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Yowch. -19F on the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Yowch. -19F on the 4km NAM Everybody has been "spoiled" when that map seems super cold. In 2000, there was a string in December where Grand Forks had double digit below zero readings all but one day (-7) from the 10th through 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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