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September 21 OV Severe Threat


snowlover2

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There's a slight risk area for parts of eastern IL and western IN today. There is now a decent chance of a watch being issued for said area.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0136 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...WCNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211836Z - 212000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS

CNTRL IL INTO WRN IND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND

DAMAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT

COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME

NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION ONCE THE SCENARIO BEGINS TO UNFOLD.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING AND INCREASING

IN INTENSITY JUST TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW CENTERED OVER

NE MO. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AND ON

THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST

NORTHWEST. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS

CREATING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS IN SPITE OF THE

WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE WSR-88D VWP AT SPRINGFIELD IL

CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING

WITH HEIGHT FROM 2 TO 3 KM. THIS COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT AS

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD INTO THE MCD AREA AND INSTABILITY

INCREASES. 500 MB TEMPS OF -15 C TO -19C WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. IN

ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SOME ACROSS ECNTRL

IL INTO WRN IND AS SHOWN ON MESOSANALYSIS WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES

NOW AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AT

LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS MATURE LATE

THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP

ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN ROTATE AND PERSIST.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/21/2012

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