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wederwarrior

Talking Winter 2012-2013

265 posts in this topic

I really hope the ski areas of pa do well

This year. Last year was atrocious! It was like boarding in a slurpee! Don't think I got any fresh powder. We'll see anyways...

Quite frankly, I'd wait till end of October to issue ANY outlook...

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All i want is a week of near or below zero weather for highs with drifts of snow of at least four feet, icicles hanging down three feet and the wind blowing for 25mph + for three days with wind chills to minus 30 and with alberta clippers every 2-3 days to keep the ground white. It has been one hell of a long time since we had weather like this around here. Two-three foot snow would be nice but unlikely in this years pattern. I would like to see the GOM more active and 4 corner lows start to develop in November for me to even get excited about Miller A's

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I forget to mention the one week of this weather would be from Dec 23- 30 only. The rest of the winter could be normal for all I care

Christmas is the only time I truely want it to snow. Other times, no.That being said, I do like the "thrill of the chase", meaning all the model watching and discussion/anticipation of an upcoming snowstorm...if one is indeed coming. Otherwise, being a trucker, I prefer it mild and dry. Tractor-trailers pretty much suck in snow and ice.

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He went with above average snowfall for Philly metro and the surrounding burbs. IIRC (if you have a link for it, and can show that I am recalling it incorrectly, by all means point it out), he said about the same thing last year, and we all know how that worked out. I don't agree that going with a "close to normal" call is the safest way to go. Personally, I think it's silly to even make a call in August, but I am interpreting this "for entertainment purposes only"...

PHL - normal 20.4", he went 23"

Cherry Hill, NJ - normal 18.9", he went 21"

Wilminington & Newark - normal 19.4", he went 20"

King of Prussia - he went 26" (normal)

West Chester - he went 25" (a little below normal)

Downingtown - he went 25" ( a little below normal)

NE Philly - he went 26" (a little above normal)

To me, these are all within noise level of normal, even though his overall map said above normal.

Agreed it is silly this early to put out actual numbers. My point was that giving a near average

forecast this far out yields a lower bust potential than swaying very high or very low when there are

still so many unknowns..

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=3853&Itemid=179

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What Tombo said, keep scrolling at the link.

http://www.erh.noaa....phi/winter.html

We need to update for the last two winters.

The last three Octobers (you know with me its always about Octobers), the departure from average Eurasian snow cover for the month correlated with the sign of the winter nao. Of course posting this is probably the kod of it working this October and winter. Unfortunately a +nao winter means a big difference to a -nao winter even during a nino. Jack's :( Newfoundland pool has to be warm for this winter. The last two pool seasons, the ssta departure se of Newfoundland coorelated to the overall winter nao. I haven't checked on the recurving tropical systems yet. Nothing in the Atlantic yet, don't know about the Pacific.

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What Tombo said, keep scrolling at the link.

http://www.erh.noaa....phi/winter.html

We need to update for the last two winters.

The last three Octobers (you know with me its always about Octobers), the departure from average Eurasian snow cover for the month correlated with the sign of the winter nao. Of course posting this is probably the kod of it working this October and winter. Unfortunately a +nao winter means a big difference to a -nao winter even during a nino. Jack's :( Newfoundland pool has to be warm for this winter. The last two pool seasons, the ssta departure se of Newfoundland coorelated to the overall winter nao. I haven't checked on the recurving tropical systems yet. Nothing in the Atlantic yet, don't know about the Pacific.

There's been one in the WPAC, but we're just getting into recurve season now.

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Did not know u lurk there...im a 2,000 club member....im kind of a big deal...jk lol

Yeah I lurk on that site a fair amount. Maybe I should become a member. :) Lots of impressive plows in that thread.

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There's been one in the WPAC, but we're just getting into recurve season now.

Yeah too early to use it, other than if we had x # of recurvatures already. I never e-mailed him to see which cat the last tropical season would have been classified.

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Agreed it is silly this early to put out actual numbers.

Absolutely. Anyone who puts out a winter forecast in public view in August is doing meteorology a bit of a disservice since people think that X or Y will happen. I'm already hearing about it from people...so and so is saying it's going to snow a lot this winter. :axe: :axe: :axe:

*yes I understand such forecasts are made in the private forecasting realm but they are for private consumption...and at this time of the year that's how it should be.

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Absolutely. Anyone who puts out a winter forecast in public view in August is doing meteorology a bit of a disservice since people think that X or Y will happen. I'm already hearing about it from people...so and so is saying it's going to snow a lot this winter. :axe: :axe: :axe:

*yes I understand such forecasts are made in the private forecasting realm but they are for private consumption...and at this time of the year that's how it should be.

Even there its not very common to have a forecast for winter in the summer...at least not one that any client takes seriously. Most of the stuff people take at least somewhat seriously is in October.

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Gaurino loves snow, but he doesn't let it influence him much. He has predicted low snow totals before. His prediction might be a good call this far out. I bet he will update later.

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Absolutely. Anyone who puts out a winter forecast in public view in August is doing meteorology a bit of a disservice since people think that X or Y will happen. I'm already hearing about it from people...so and so is saying it's going to snow a lot this winter. :axe: :axe: :axe:

Absolutely agree. A friend of mine with his own Facebook weather page asked the question the other night if it's too early to put out a winter forecast. Putting aside my warmista weather attitude, I told him he should wait until at least October. He's a snowlover who bleeds white so I don't know if he'll listen. I'm not the most scientifically weather savvy person around, but I think a more accurate (and credable) forecast can be made later in the fall (October/November) as opposed to during the summer months.

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Absolutely agree. A friend of mine with his own Facebook weather page asked the question the other night if it's too early to put out a winter forecast. Putting aside my warmista weather attitude, I told him he should wait until at least October. He's a snowlover who bleeds white so I don't know if he'll listen. I'm not the most scientifically weather savvy person around, but I think a more accurate (and credable) forecast can be made later in the fall (October/November) as opposed to during the summer months.

I just looked at the correlation between the Eurasian October average snow cover and the nao for the ensuing winters for weak and moderate el ninos (as defined by the CPC). Yup another kod post, but there's a 78% success ratio there in the past.

Here we go:

October Eurasian Snow Cover.......NAO average for the ensuing winter

1968.....above...............................negative

1976.....above...............................negative

1977.....above...............................negative

1986.....below.................................negative

1987.....below................................positive

1994.....below................................positive

2002.....above...............................negative

2004.....above................................positive

2006.....above...............................negative

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At least it's all downhill from here :)

http://www.snowforec...nterParkResort2

" Clouds increase along with the wind as a low pressure system clips Colorado after moving across the northwest US. Cooler temperatures are expected, and a dusting of snow is possible mainly above 12,000 feet as "free air" temperatures (in the atmosphere, not caused by radational cooling like in valley areas overnight) drop to near freezing at those 12,000+ foot elevations. Temperatures above 12,000 feet show the first signs of breaking summer's grip with this system."

"

--Next Friday through Sunday we may see a further increase in moisture and clouds across the area, as stronger low pressure moves into the northwest US. The moisture would be pulled in out of the southwest deserts. This same storm system may also drop a few inches or more of snow across the 6,000+ foot areas of the Oregon/ Washington Cascades, and into the northern Rocky Mountains. This is nothing shocking, but a cool reminder of the upcoming season."

As far as my forecast, I'm not a meteorologist so...... I'm frankly just looking forward to it not being able to get hot again for a long time. :)

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I seem to recall that there are those who believe the loss of ice may encourage a negative AO. Don't quote me on that, though.

Oh, that's the biologist who thinks he's a meteorologist. Never mind.

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We'll have plenty of time to discuss winter. A week to moderate el-nino particularly if not east-based can lead to some fun this winter as some outlooks are calling for. However a lot is still up the air.

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We'll have plenty of time to discuss winter. A week to moderate el-nino particularly if not east-based can lead to some fun this winter as some outlooks are calling for. However a lot is still up the air.

i hope so. As soon as daylight savings time kicks in and the models come in an hr earlier, its game on. Are you new to the board? From this area?

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AH, this El Nino Winter we will be able to use the "October Box" which rightly predicted the majority of all DJF periods NAO since 1950...

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