Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

June 2012 Departure Thread DCA


Deck Pic

Recommended Posts

01 80 62 - Normal Temp: 71, Actual Temp: 73.5 (82/65), Departure: +2.5

02 80 62 - Normal Temp: 71, Actual Temp: 68.0 (75/61), Departure: -3.0

03 81 63 - Normal Temp: 72, Actual Temp: 69.0 (80/58), Departure: -3.0

04 81 63 - Normal Temp: 72, Actual Temp: 68.5 (75/62), Departure: -3.5

05 81 63 - Normal Temp: 72, Actual Temp: 64.5 (71/58), Departure: -7.5

06 82 64 - Normal Temp: 73, Actual Temp: 66.5 (75/58), Departure: -6.5

07 82 64 - Normal Temp: 73, Actual Temp: 70.5 (83/58), Departure: -2.5

08 82 64 - Normal Temp: 73, Actual Temp: 72.5 (85/60), Departure: -0.5

09 82 65 - Normal Temp: 73.5, Actual Temp: 79.0 (91/67), Departure: +5.5

10 83 65 - Normal Temp: 74, Actual Temp: 80.5 (92/69), Departure: +6.5

11 83 65 - Normal Temp: 74, Actual Temp: 81.0 (90/72), Departure: +7.0

12 83 66 - Normal Temp: 74.5, Actual Temp: 74.0 (78/70), Departure: -0.5

13 84 66 - Normal Temp: 75, Actual Temp: 75.5 (82/69), Departure: +0.5

14 84 66 - Normal Temp: 75, Actual Temp: 75.5 (83/68), Departure: +0.5

15 84 66 - Normal Temp: 75, Actual Temp: 73.0 (82/64), Departure: -2.0

16 85 67 - Normal Temp: 76, Actual Temp: 72.5 (82/63), Departure: -3.5

17 85 67 - Normal Temp: 76, Actual Temp: 69.5 (77/62), Departure: -6.5

18 85 67 - Normal Temp: 76, Actual Temp: 67.0 (71/63), Departure: -9.0

19 85 68 - Normal Temp: 76.5, Actual Temp: 78.5 (88/69), Departure: +2.0

20 86 68 - Normal Temp: 77, Actual Temp: 86.0 (98/74), Departure: +9.0

21 86 68 - Normal Temp: 77, Actual Temp: 88.5 (99/78), Departure:+11.5

22 86 68 - Normal Temp: 77, Actual Temp: 85.5 (97/74), Departure:+8.5

23 86 69 - Normal Temp: 77.5, Actual Temp: 82.0 (91/73), Departure:+4.5

24 87 69 - Normal Temp: 78, Actual Temp: 82.5 (93/72), Departure:+4.5

25 87 69 - Normal Temp: 78, Actual Temp: 79.0 (89/69), Departure:+1.0

26 87 69 - Normal Temp: 78, Actual Temp: 72.0 (82/62), Departure: -6.0

27 87 69 - Normal Temp: 78, Actual Temp: 77.5 (89/66), Departure: -0.5

28 87 70 - Normal Temp: 78.5, Actual Temp: 83.0 (96/70), Departure:+4.5

29 88 70 - Normal Temp: 79, Actual Temp: 88.0 (104/72), Departure:+9.0

30 88 70 - Normal Temp: 79, Actual Temp: 84.5 (97/72), Departure:+5.5

Final. +1.1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 93
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Going to have to bump this on June 30. Even if it is .5 below it is still below :D

I know in the end it is all about average temps but you want to put up some big departures early when the norms are low. 2nd half gets really hot and 87/69 won't cut it if you built up a big deficit. We average 88/70 by the end of the month.

That said I am overjoyed to bust if I do. I hate summer heat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I told Jason not to worry. But even around normal is a pretty big bust. +1 I can "spin" and give a B-

Longer range seems to like general subtropical ridging or EC ridge. I guess the tendency for EC troughing might be a slight concern but seems hard to believe it would continue unabated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Longer range seems to like general subtropical ridging or EC ridge. I guess the tendency for EC troughing might be a slight concern but seems hard to believe it would continue unabated.

Analogs scream heat. But of course analogs don't always work well for a single month and/or I picked bad analogs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Analogs scream heat. But of course analogs don't always work well for a single month and/or I picked bad analogs.

I believe you will still be fairly close one way or the other. There was a good reason you picked those analogs and it will most likely verify.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If DCA has a negative departure again today, I think it would be the longest stretch of below normal days (5 days) since the last week of October and early November (6 days, which included the October snow).

Low of 58 this morning. Negative departure is a lock today and tomorrow. Friday could go either way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What's that...about a +5? That's pretty toasty.

No offense, but I hope you bust huge!

It's around a +3. I am enjoying the cold weather. Don't get me wrong. I hate summer. But I am going out on a limb here. A more reasonable forecast would be to finish the month around normal. But sometimes I like to go for a home run.

I don't think we see another below normal stretch. But after this weekend it diesnt look like any kind of death ridge until about 7-10 days from now. If it doesnt come by next weekend I am probably toast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

(

It's around a +3. I am enjoying the cold weather. Don't get me wrong. I hate summer. But I am going out on a limb here. A more reasonable forecast would be to finish the month around normal. But sometimes I like to go for a home run.

I don't think we see another below normal stretch. But after this weekend it diesnt look like any kind of death ridge until about 7-10 days from now. If it doesnt come by next weekend I am probably toast.

OK - must have gotten my calculations wrong. Either way, a +3 is pretty warm, especially if we're not seeing a hint of a big ridge in the near term.

I'm not a cold weather lover, and prefer summer over winter (for all kinds of reasons), but I don't like huge heat. The last two summers were ridiculous, and the heat got old pretty quick. I'd rather not start off too hot, since we all know that July and into August will, at some point, feature some kind of big heat.

I personally don't expect anything much over normal for JJA - in fact, I'm thinking normal to slightly below. But that's more based on hunch (law of averages) rather than science like the rest of you guys.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

(

OK - must have gotten my calculations wrong. Either way, a +3 is pretty warm, especially if we're not seeing a hint of a big ridge in the near term.

I'm not a cold weather lover, and prefer summer over winter (for all kinds of reasons), but I don't like huge heat. The last two summers were ridiculous, and the heat got old pretty quick. I'd rather not start off too hot, since we all know that July and into August will, at some point, feature some kind of big heat.

I personally don't expect anything much over normal for JJA - in fact, I'm thinking normal to slightly below. But that's more based on hunch (law of averages) rather than science like the rest of you guys.

we should be under a mean ridge starting this weekend with some short wave troughs bringing some average days here and there....the big daddy ridge should be here in a week...if it doesn't come to fruition my forecastis probably toast....I am expecting an extended period of 87-91/67-71 starting in 7-10 days..we'll see what happens...persistence is a nasty nasty monster...like an old stalker...a TRO can't keep him away for long

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hard to have too much faith but lr models seem pretty insistent on a west coast trough with tendancy for ridging on the EC. through the more realistic period we see continues troughiness to the north/northeast. hard to be sold that type of pattern won't try to continue once we get into the lr. in the short term our problem in adding up some + may be that many of the warm days end up tainted by storm chances. still, hard not to think it could be quite toasty at least a few day to week stretch by d8-10 if the euro is right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hard to have too much faith but lr models seem pretty insistent on a west coast trough with tendancy for ridging on the EC. through the more realistic period we see continues troughiness to the north/northeast. hard to be sold that type of pattern won't try to continue once we get into the lr. in the short term our problem in adding up some + may be that many of the warm days end up tainted by storm chances. still, hard not to think it could be quite toasty at least a few day to week stretch by d8-10 if the euro is right.

models are pretty bullish..just not sure how quick we pop into a sustained hot pattern...if we have more than a couple 83/66 days this week it will probably hurt my ambitious forecast..I need a lot to work out to get to +2 after the cold start...i think around normal is a safe bet..we can still get some pretty big departures for the next 2 weeks...the last week of the month is pretty hard unless we have a ring of fire parked over us or to the southwest...DCA is dropping pretty easily at night still...not sure how long that will last...I could see a 58-61 again tonight...until we get stickier and the river gets hotter, mins might hurt my chances..the nights where it is 85-88 at 11pm are a while off (hopefully)

my analogs suggest a normal July which might not be that hard with norms jumping up 0.8 degrees this summer..August is always scorching..silly to deviate from that until we have another cool one..it has been 8 years I think

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If DCA has a negative departure again today, I think it would be the longest stretch of below normal days (5 days) since the last week of October and early November (6 days, which included the October snow).

We eked out our seventh consecutive negative departure today (Friday, June 8th) at DCA, making it the longest such streak in well over a year -- since a 12-day negative stretch during March 23-April 3, 2011.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We eked out our seventh consecutive negative departure today (Friday, June 8th) at DCA, making it the longest such streak in well over a year -- since a 12-day negative stretch during March 23-April 3, 2011.

Up my way, we also had a nine-day stretch of negative departures April 22-30 of this year. April 23 had the largest departure during that stretch, with a 46/37 max/min reading, against historical averages of 70/47 for that day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...