BowMeHunter Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Looks like a possible in&out shot of a frost/freeze for the eastern lakes early next week. Last 3 runs of the GFS in the long range have been hinting at another shot of a frost/freeze of varying degree's with the latest 06z run bringing down the hammer with even some of the white stuff possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 All I can say is anything less then 28F is disaster here...mid 20Fs will kill most fruit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Can you imagine the impact on the fruit crop in the Upper Midwest? We are talking disaster here. Wisconsin/MN/MI produce a significant amount of apples, with MI producing peaches, cherries, etc...all of which is near bloom or in bloom... 25F and its game over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Cold air will most likely be modified , no snow cover until 300-400 miles north of Canadian border. Snow cover is even further north then before the April 2007 freeze. I would not trust the coldest solutions for the Ohio valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 24, 2012 Author Share Posted March 24, 2012 Longer the inevitable freeze waits the worse off it would be probably as vegetation looks to continue popping like Alek on the dancefloor. Up in Bayfield Sconnie there is tons of apple orchards. Hope they didn't get duped in to popping during the heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 DTX already talking about this "event", expecting temps in the mid-upper 20s Monday night, along with many more borderline low-30s nights this week. Gee, who didnt see this coming? NEVER good to see early foliage this far north, and to think its probably just as advanced well north of here. Last March the last week of the month saw lows in the TEENS every day with no fanfare, now because of the epic warm spell, one night of lows in the mid-upper 20s is an "event". The only other comparable March warm spell was 1945, which looked so gaudy and eye-popping until 2012 spanked it, and here is an excerpt from the "Monthly Weather Review" on the very early greenup of spring 1945 The possibility of dangerous freezing, with vegetation, especially fruit, at such a critical stage of development so early in the season, became a reality when from April 4-7 and on the 23rd cold weather overspread central and eastern sections of the county and brought severe frosts and freezing southward as far as Oklahoma, Arkansas, the Ohio Valley and many southern Appalachian regions, with considerable damage to fruit and early gardens." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Cold air will most likely be modified , no snow cover until 300-400 miles north of Canadian border. Snow cover is even further north then before the April 2007 freeze. I would not trust the coldest solutions for the Ohio valley. The April 2007 event was not just a freeze here, it was an epic event. We were below freezing for 100 consecutive hours and had snowflakes in the air for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Wouldn't surprise me if we get a big snow. Seen it many times after a big warm up this time of year. Had big snows as late as mid May around here before. This is why I leave the snow tires on my truck until latter part of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 24, 2012 Author Share Posted March 24, 2012 Summer arrived well ahead of schedule in March and would appear to have eclipsed spring. From Superior to Sturgeon Bay and Menomonie to Milwaukee record temperatures have been set all week in the 70s and even low 80s. Many people have been out enjoying the warm weather. Devil’s Lake State Park reported large numbers of hikers out on trails over the weekend and Wyalusing State Park reported record numbers of campers for a March weekend. However, there have been some downsides to the warm weather. Hikers in Bayfield County have picked off ticks and deer flies and mosquitoes are buzzing in Vernon County. The very warm nights have had an adverse impact on spring harvest of maple sap – which requires warm days and cool nights to run -- with many trees budding, which essentially ended the season in many areas just as it began. March 22nd - Ashland DNR Service Center area Bayfield County - After all this warm weather including it being in the 70-80s all the snow is gone and the trees are trying to bud. Wildfire Report for March 22, 2012 Fire danger is also a real concern this spring.. The spring wildfire season is well underway in Wisconsin. The abundant dead vegetation that was last year’s grass, leaves, and flowering plants is prime fuel for a wildfire. People are urged to be extra cautious this time of year with anything that can cause a wildfire to start. So far this year, 164 wildfires have burned 303 acres in DNR protection areas (just over half the state). Six buildings have burned and another 67 have been threatened by fires. To put things in perspective, at this time last year only five fires had occurred on less than 2 acres. Debris burning is the main cause of wildfires in the state. If burning leaves and fallen brush is part of your spring clean up routine, consider alternatives like composting or chipping the material instead. Anyone who does burn leaves and brush must adhere to burning permit restrictions. Northern Region Spring came early to northern Wisconsin. Fire crews are staging for a prolonged and dangerous fire season due to extensive blow down from last summer’s storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Good idea BowMe to start this. I think the danger is very real. We could be looking at several shots of freezing air at night starting with tomorrow night. Forecasted lows are getting close to freezing around here. Central MI has lows in the upper 20s now for Monday night. A snowstorm would be devastating and 25° is game over for the fruit trees like DLL said. It was mentioned before a snow is actually better because it insulated things better, but then you have to concerned about the weight of the snow on leafing out trees. A dry, Canadian air mass with dewpoints low enough could easily bring 20s into the Midwest - even without snow right down to the border. In October when you have no snow cover until you get way up into Canada, temperatures easily drop into the 20s with the right air mass. MKX now talking about starting frost and freeze watches early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 24, 2012 Author Share Posted March 24, 2012 Cherry Trees Already Budding, Growers Concerned About Frost and Pollination http://www.9and10news.com/story/17203773/cherry-trees-already-budding-growers-worry-about-frost cherry trees are ready to bloom, but farmers fear the weather won't stay this warm; frost is a possibility through much of May. Once the trees start to bloom, they're at risk if temps drop back down. Adding to their concerns, trees will be ready for pollination before the bees get here. In order for nature to take its course, growers require a very specific timeline. Mid-May is when we typically start to see cherries if mother nature plays by the rules. Now, they could be just weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 lol You said the same thing when I mentioned 90's back in early March for the upcoming torchapalooza.. And then what do you know, what happened in Mi this past week?? lolololololololo lolo lolo lol lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 You said the same thing when I mentioned 90's back in early March for the upcoming torchapalooza.. And then what do you know, what happened in Mi this past week?? lolololololololo lolo lolo lol lol lol There were no 90s in MI to my knowledge, but several 88s. Nevertheless, the torch meant business, big time.....it was no joke, and neither is the threat of freeze to the early blooms. 12z MOS has 26F (NAM) to 30F (GFS) for DTW monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 You said the same thing when I mentioned 90's back in early March for the upcoming torchapalooza.. And then what do you know, what happened in Mi this past week?? lolololololololo lolo lolo lol lol lol I doubt he's loling at the concept itself, moreso that the 312 hour GFS was posted. I would agree that the next couple weeks is a period to watch as simple climo put the most area of this forum at risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 The April 2007 event was not just a freeze here, it was an epic event. We were below freezing for 100 consecutive hours and had snowflakes in the air for a week. I know it was 19 here one night with a high of 32 and a trace of snow. Snowstorms are most likely done for my part of Ohio, the latest big snowstorm recorded here was in early April I believe. It may flurry here but that will be it, that is why it would be pointless to get cold again here. In the upper Midwest/Great lakes winter lasts 1-2 months longer then here it seems, I don't know how anyone can stand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Can you imagine the impact on the fruit crop in the Upper Midwest? We are talking disaster here. Wisconsin/MN/MI produce a significant amount of apples, with MI producing peaches, cherries, etc...all of which is near bloom or in bloom... 25F and its game over... I'm sure something like this wouldn't help either.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 That April 2007 cold snap was a dozy. About 84 hours of sub freezing temperatures and a snowstorm to boot. I don't think the vegetation was this far along though. Edit: In fact I know it wasn't this far along because I've never seen it this green this early! Notice the 6z run, Beast? Snowstorm over the central Plains into the Lower lakes! Hours 340+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 We had accumulating snow in LAF, albeit light, in mid April 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 This is crap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Wow...before that cold shot, temps would probably surge to 80F+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 I don't think the cold shots are going to be that significant...but still I was always afraid of something like this happening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 I believe this setup has the makings of a far reaching agricultural disaster. First off any freezing weather over the next month is going to cause significant damage to fruit crops across the Midwest, but another problem is going to present with the corn crop. Corn has been planted for two weeks in some locations across Illinois and some seed companies have warned their farms to quit planting because the seed supply is so tight. From here on out if there is a significant weather problem and replanting of corn becomes necessary then there is not going to be enough of the "top shelf" seed to plant. This could lead to some real big problem in production and a move to more soybean acres, especially with the price of beans currently. That in turn could lead to tighter supplies and higher commodity prices across the broad. Overall the threat of a significant cold stretch could really play havoc on grain farms across the Corn Belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 The AO & NAO look like they have started a new trend. NAO is negative for the first time since Valentines Day. Both negative today and forecast to stay lower territory through the 2 week period. The models could be picking up on this. This is not the right time for the other shoe to drop in the middle of a green out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 We have some things going for us. Time of year (longer days), warm soil (even far to the north), lack of snowcover (that could change?), its the GFS at nearly 300hrs... Still...its something to watch closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 24, 2012 Author Share Posted March 24, 2012 Hard to believe on March 6th 2012 this it what an ancient Bayfield Apple orchard looked liked. Forward to March 21st. The Forsythia are in full bud, red maple (Acer rubrum) is in full bloom. Daffodils are five or six inches high in the herb garden. March 23rd. Crocuses bloomed spontaneously yesterday, and a few Forsythia blossoms are opening today. Back in 2008 on this date today it was 10 degrees in Bayfied WI @ 8:30 am. March 31st 2009 - A snow storm was commencing in Bayfield. The start of the torch spring of 2010 had snow free ground up in Bayfield on this date and it remained that way until dropping several inches of snow on apple orchard country on May 8th. Last yr on this date it was 16 degrees in Bayfield and they were still waiting for maple sap tapping season which started on the 29th. April 27th brought several inches of snow and even some flakes in May. Kinda neat blog I stumbled upon earlier this am.. Wish it went back in time farther as I'm sure the ole man has a endless supple of stories. http://artsbayfielda...c.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 The AO & NAO look like they have started a new trend. NAO is negative for the first time since Valentines Day. Both negative today and forecast to stay lower territory through the 2 week period. The models could be picking up on this. This is not the right time for the other shoe to drop in the middle of a green out. Interesting. I dont follow NAO values but I do remember Valentines Day, as it was the perfect winter day here. Over an inch of fresh snow fell ATOP SNOWPACK/SNOWBANKS for the FIRST time all winter, and it was a true deepwinter feel, watching any gray in the snowbanks turn white again, finally felt like winter was here to stay awhile (Jan 20th had 2.5" fall ontop of 0.8", but thats not exactly a snowpack ). But needless to say the NAO apparently went + and for but a few cold days and a few snows, the heat has been on ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 24, 2012 Author Share Posted March 24, 2012 I doubt he's loling at the concept itself, moreso that the 312 hour GFS was posted. I would agree that the next couple weeks is a period to watch as simple climo put the most area of this forum at risk. I was pretty much loling myself the whole while starting this topic becuase of it so far out...but climo and the gfs has for 4 runs now been hinting at a possible cool down in the longrange so maybe there is a slim chance this does have legs. So instead of me just trolling the March and furure April thread I figured I would just start a serious freeze threat thread to cut off my trolling and get a decent discusion going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Wouldn't surprise me if we get a big snow. Seen it many times after a big warm up this time of year. Had big snows as late as mid May around here before. This is why I leave the snow tires on my truck until latter part of May. Lets hope for some major LES. Looks like the lakes are warmed up to June levels... it won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Just taking a quick look at the climate reports since 07, Madison has had snow and hard freezes every April. That's the reality of the upper Midwest and I don't expect this year to be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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