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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)


tornadojay

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Seems ludicrous to me. Although since it happened in late Oct, I guess it could happen now. God help any vegetation we have flowering/leafing out though if it happens.

Very true and consider the poor tomato plants planted already by fools

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Its hard enough to get snow from a swfe in the middle of winter, let alone April.

Anyone near the coast who expects snow from a weak swfe is fooling themselves.

We need a strong coastal to get snow in April.

If this storm gives someone snow, it will be the higher hills and the mountains to our north.

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Its hard enough to get snow from a swfe in the middle of winter, let alone April.

Anyone near the coast who expects snow from a weak swfe is fooling themselves.

We need a strong coastal to get snow in April.

If this storm gives someone snow, it will be the higher hills and the mountains to our north.

IIRC, April, 2003, was not a huge coastal.

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The GFS has the low sliding off of Wildwood. (6z). That's really not far from the Delmarva.

I just saw that and edited. Regardless, that storm had a 1045 high and a stronger vort with a closed H5 low over Ohio.

I would be shocked if this weak swfe gives anyone near the coast snow.

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Its hard enough to get snow from a swfe in the middle of winter, let alone April.

Not at all arguing for snow here (lol), but the trajectory of this event really isn't a typical SWFE at all. In fact the shortwave moves from the northwest to the southeast before de-amplifying and moving more easterly. There is a southwest component to the winds in the mid levels but the overall trajectory of the system prevents the big time WAA...if you're basing it off the NAM's depiction.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETANE9_6z/etaloop.html

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I just saw that and edited. Regardless, that storm had a 1045 high and a stronger vort with a closed H5 low over Ohio.

I would be shocked if this weak swfe gives anyone near the coast snow.

It wouldn't surprise me if the precip just sort of dies out as the wave deamplifies and encounters dry air/confluence. The wave already looks pretty weak, and the precip won't just generate itself.

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Finnaly nice to see snow potential.. Funny thing is to the south and west 72 hours out its torching but northeast snow potential... Now u have to factor sun angle.. Also if it happens at night or midday... Lets go -NAO -AO -AAo -EPO +PNA and 50 50 Low

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It wouldn't surprise me if the precip just sort of dies out as the wave deamplifies and encounters dry air/confluence. The wave already looks pretty weak, and the precip won't just generate itself.

Yeah...I said this yesterday too. But if the NAM has a clue, the stronger shortwave will be enough to get isentropic lift/precipitation going in a good spot for us. That being said I'm not sold on the fact that, even if the NAM is right, the BL would be cold enough to support snow. I guess we may never know :lol:

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Finnaly nice to see snow potential.. Funny thing is to the south and west 72 hours out its torching but northeast snow potential... Now u have to factor sun angle.. Also if it happens at night or midday... Lets go -NAO -AO -AAo -EPO +PNA and 50 50 Low

I give it maybe a ~1-2% chance of happening. I think the more likely scenario is the wave gets crushed and sheared out under confluence and we stay dry. Or it gets suppressed. The only model really harping on this is the usually over done NAM.

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1045 high to our north. Also had a stronger vort and a closed H5 low in OH.

Your first point is very valid. As for the second point, that closed ull was in the Plains and was very disconnected from the situation that affected us that day. A weak wave actually broke off from this ull and shot eastward. There was a WAA omega bomb shot of hvy snow that produced big time for us (unexpectedly).

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