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NNE Spring 2012


ctsnowstorm628

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And just like that...it's done and looks like the sun wants to come out. Got down to 37F during that burst when it changed over...already rebounding up to 39-40F again.

Had a nice convective graupel shower over this way around 11am, and as I looked across the Passumpsic River valley, I would see a sheet of white over near Burke Mtn...but it was maybe at 1,500ft ASL..below that it was much more transparent, indicating probably snow up top and graupel or rain at base elevation. Cool stuff.

47/32

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Some squalls are moving in again...Mansfield is definitely all snow above 2000ft. Down here at 950ft we are getting a pellet like rain too. Rain with frozen center. Maybe we can change over again.

Wish I had my camera as it's so cool to watch the snow streaks work over the mountains and see the distinct line where phase change occurs.

Edit: pouring grauple or small hail.

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Some squalls are moving in again...Mansfield is definitely all snow above 2000ft. Down here at 950ft we are getting a pellet like rain too. Rain with frozen center. Maybe we can change over again.

Wish I had my camera as it's so cool to watch the snow streaks work over the mountains and see the distinct line where phase change occurs.

Yeah its pretty awesome. I think if we can get some stronger convection, we can transport some of that convective graupel down to areas below 1,000ft, and possibly over to all snow if we can go somewhat isothermal within heavier bursts.

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Yeah its pretty awesome. I think if we can get some stronger convection, we can transport some of that convective graupel down to areas below 1,000ft, and possibly over to all snow if we can go somewhat isothermal within heavier bursts.

All grauple now...earlier we had legit, all snow silver dollar sized aggregates...so it doesnt seem all that hard to mix it down to here just under 1000ft.

We may be getting some help from orographic lift causing heavier fall rates though.

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All grauple now...earlier we had legit, all snow silver dollar sized aggregates...so it doesnt seem all that hard to mix it down to here just under 1000ft.

We may be getting some help from orographic lift causing heavier fall rates though.

Yeah, because we didn't get any flakes here at 1,070ft earlier. It was more 'sleety' in nature, then when it picked up and it went more isothermal, the 'sleety' precip turned more toward convective graupel/ice chunks. As soon as it let up we flipped back to rain/sleet.

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Yeah, because we didn't get any flakes here at 1,070ft earlier. It was more 'sleety' in nature, then when it picked up and it went more isothermal, the 'sleety' precip turned more toward convective graupel/ice chunks. As soon as it let up we flipped back to rain/sleet.

That's what we have been seeing except for that one 10-15 min burst of flakes.

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In response to some of the talk of upslope snow on Friday, here is the new HI-RES 12z NAM I found for total snow accumulation by 0z Saturday. Pretty accurate with a general bullseye of 4-6" on the highest summits of the greens, especially Stowe and Jay.

Nice map! That looks about right per usual upslope climo... the western half of the town of Stowe in the precipitation while the eastern half is not, lol. As usual the Village center will be the battle ground seeing rain/snow/graupel mixing with clearing skies off to the east.

It sill amazes me how localized upslope precipitation is/can be.

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Nice map! That looks about right per usual upslope climo... the western half of the town of Stowe in the precipitation while the eastern half is not, lol. As usual the Village center will be the battle ground seeing rain/snow/graupel mixing with clearing skies off to the east.

It sill amazes me how localized upslope precipitation is/can be.

Yeah no kidding. Could be one of those setups where the village get periodic graupel showers while the mountain dumps for most of the day Friday with the CAA advancing SE as the storm pulls away.

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Yeah no kidding. Could be one of those setups where the village get periodic graupel showers while the mountain dumps for most of the day Friday with the CAA advancing SE as the storm pulls away.

That sounds about right dude... that's exactly what will likely happen. Early and late season before we get good snow growth or cold temperatures that allow for the fluffy dendrites down in town, we always end up with pellet-like snow/graupel while the mountain is in consistently heavier fall rates getting semi-decent flakes to accumulate.

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That sounds about right dude... that's exactly what will likely happen. Early and late season before we get good snow growth or cold temperatures that allow for the fluffy dendrites down in town, we always end up with pellet-like snow/graupel while the mountain is in consistently heavier fall rates getting semi-decent flakes to accumulate.

Pretty pumped to get some reports from you out there...you heading to the mountain Friday?

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Borderwx... exact same scene here (even same cloud type and shade) over Mansfield down here with clear skies elsewhere. Coating of fresh white down to 2000ft on the ski trails.

Awesome photo. On my drive in I was wishing i brought the camera but you captured the scene nicely. Just change the mountain and it was the same lol.

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Mountain snow is on the way...the Lamoille County Zone Forecast looks nice:

Friday

Rain. Snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Friday Night

Snow or rain likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

And here's BTV's discussion:

Abundant moisture and stiff northwest flow behind the front will set the stage for precipitation to become more orographic in nature tonight...with upslope rain/snow continuing through much of the day Friday. Indeed...higher elevations are likely to see some light to moderate snow Friday...with totals by midnight Friday possible totaling 3-6 inches above 2500 feet...and maybe a dusting to an inch from 1500-2500 feet.

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Mountain snow is on the way...the Lamoille County Zone Forecast looks nice:

Friday

Rain. Snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Friday Night

Snow or rain likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

And here's BTV's discussion:

Abundant moisture and stiff northwest flow behind the front will set the stage for precipitation to become more orographic in nature tonight...with upslope rain/snow continuing through much of the day Friday. Indeed...higher elevations are likely to see some light to moderate snow Friday...with totals by midnight Friday possible totaling 3-6 inches above 2500 feet...and maybe a dusting to an inch from 1500-2500 feet.

Pretty much dead on with guidance and a lot peoples thoughts here. Nice!

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Mountain snow is on the way...the Lamoille County Zone Forecast looks nice:

I just looked at the point forecast for the higher elevations of Mt. Mansfield, and it also looks appealing:

Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 29. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 22 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday: Snow showers likely, mainly before 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Windy, with a northwest wind between 29 and 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

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I just looked at the point forecast for the higher elevations of Mt. Mansfield, and it also looks appealing:

Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 29. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 22 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday: Snow showers likely, mainly before 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Windy, with a northwest wind between 29 and 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST

RAINS OCCURRING NOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO THE

CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z AND EXIT

THE REGION AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TURN

NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT

OF UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FOR SYNOPTIC

PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF

RAINFALL.

UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO GET GOING OVER THE

ADIRONDACKS AFTER ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT AND COMMENCE IN THE GREENS

AFTER ABOUT 09Z. WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AND INVERSION

STRENGTHENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK...EXPECT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST ACTIVITY

ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN BACKING

UP INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES POST-FRONTAL WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SO

MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING OVER

TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...ONGOING UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW EVENT

WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN

SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS BEFORE INVERSION LIFTS AND WINDS

TURN MORE WESTERLY...FORCING THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALONG

AND EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREENS BY THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE

WILL GRADUALLY BE DEPARTING SO MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING

OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...EXPECT

UPSLOPE LIQUID AMOUNTS TO BE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES ALONG THE

SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES...AROUND A

TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND

NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST ELSEWHERE. WILL

LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-7 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST

PEAKS...AND 1-2 INCHES ABOVE 1500 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.

COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH DOWN TO ABOUT

1000 FEET. OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...CHILLY...AND BREEZY DAY.

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WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-7 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS...AND 1-2 INCHES ABOVE 1500 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH DOWN TO ABOUT 1000 FEET.

I can’t see an obvious snow line from here at the house, but it’s down to at least the 2,000’ because accumulation and falling snow is visible on the Bolton Valley Live Web Cam:

27APR12A.jpg

The temperature reported by the weather station at the resort base is 31.4 F, so it’s below freezing there. It will be interesting to see what’s gone on atop Mt. Mansfield so far, as the temperature hit 32 F there around 3:00 A.M., and there’s already been a decent shot of precipitation. As of this morning’s 6:00 A.M. CoCoRaHS report there’s 0.43” of liquid in the gauge here at the house, and the weather station at the base of Stowe (1,640’) reports 0.34” of liquid and a temperature of 34.7 F.

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Picked up 0.32" last night--sounded like more than that hitting the roof, but apparently not, lol. Now at 3.43" for the month of April. Starting to make up some ground.

Cool (38F) and breezy this morning but no snow. I looked at the Coles Pond cam thinking for sure I'd see some white at 2.2k but not even there...

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Ripping good sized flakes...slush building on windshields. Actually decent visibility reduction now...started as white rain but now it's actually steady nickel sized flakes for last 20 minutes.

Edit...car roof tops are turning white, if this steady snow continues I wonder if we can get brief measurable down here under 1000ft.

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