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downeastnc

Coastal Snow SC/NC?

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I hate to be weenish but should I even bother myself with this for MBY? Wouldn't mind just seeing a rouge snow flake...seems like there could be a chance though for me seeing something just haven't invested anything into it.

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I hate to be weenish but should I even bother myself with this for MBY? Wouldn't mind just seeing a rouge snow flake...seems like there could be a chance though for me seeing something just haven't invested anything into it.

LOL, I think for any of us to see a snowflake we are going to have to be awake between 4-7am...

GFS_3_2012030318_F21_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

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LOL, I think for any of us to see a snowflake we are going to have to be awake between 4-7am...

GFS_3_2012030318_F21_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Its nice to look at but so hard to believe anything close to that could actually happen.....

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I just looked at the 12z Euro, it doesn't even have precip in RDU, just some drizzle really, not sure I buy these american models. Maybe east of 95 could see some flakes per the Euro.

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I just looked at the 12z Euro, it doesn't even have precip in RDU, just some drizzle really, not sure I buy these american models. Maybe east of 95 could see some flakes per the Euro.

What vendor are you using, I see 0.5" for RDU over the next 48hrs, not nearly as bullish compared to the nam, no surprise, but to state it does not have precip for RDU, likely false, at least per my maps.

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What vendor are you using, I see 0.5" for RDU over the next 48hrs, not nearly as bullish compared to the nam, no surprise, but to state it does not have precip for RDU, likely false, at least per my maps.

Hmmm...Accuweather, let me check SV.

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Hmmm...Accuweather, let me check SV.

Never mind, my error, looks like most of that was from 6hrs, on the 12z run, so till about 1pm today. Yeah, I see what you mean, sharp cutoff along and east of 95 in NC. Draw a line from CAE to RDU,and that is the western edge, mainly a fringe job for Raliegh, sorry about that, should have looked at what fell within e first 6 hours of the run. :)

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What vendor are you using, I see 0.5" for RDU over the next 48hrs, not nearly as bullish compared to the nam, no surprise, but to state it does not have precip for RDU, likely false, at least per my maps.

On the Euro maps I have is less then a 0.1 overnight tonight for RDU, the cut off of heavy precip is I-95.

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Never mind, my error, looks like most of that was from 6hrs, on the 12z run, so till about 1pm today. Yeah, I see what you mean, sharp cutoff along and east of 95 in NC. Draw a line from CAE to RDU,and that is the western edge, mainly a fringe job for Raliegh, sorry about that, should have looked at what fell within e first 6 hours of the run. :)

The NAM did double its precip outlook for RDU from the 12z to 18z run.

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Where's Millzpirate at? Time to start now-casting... SE mosaic and RAH's in house WRF, 12z run valid +24hrs, so tomorrow morning.

post-382-133081455971.jpg

post-382-133081458038.jpg

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Where's Millzpirate at? Time to start now-casting... SE mosaic and RAH's in house WRF, 12z run valid +24hrs, so tomorrow morning.

Gonna be close to bad there isnt a 500-600 ft tall building or hill around here......

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Hard to tell with the 12hr maps, but wetter compared to 6z same time, sharp cutoff along 95, @ 12hrs 18z ens mean has a 1003 ~75 miles east of ILM. +12hrs not even close, 24hrs we are dry, what happens in between who knows, hopefully all the mems are still on board with some tokens, based on this 24 hr map, bet they are.

18zgfsensemblep12024.gif

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I'm here. Living in DC now. Watching from afar and rooting for you guys

not missing much man, 0z NAM has trended warmer compared to 18 and 12z, looks like any chance for mixing would be after sunrise, compared to maybe the early morning hours, after 3am. +12hr thickness plots is in the wintery mix category, ~1545/1305 here.

00znamp06thickpmsl_MA012.gif

Heights crash after sunrise, but as usual marginal cold chasing the moisture, here is 18hrs...

00znamp06thickpmsl_MA018.gif

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GFS is still painting a large swath of snow from SC up through NC into VA. I don't think that there will be that much accum but i do think there could be some big fat flakes flying in the air. The soundings just look to warm at the surface to support a huge snow event.

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GFS is still painting a large swath of snow from SC up through NC into VA. I don't think that there will be that much accum but i do think there could be some big fat flakes flying in the air. The soundings just look to warm at the surface to support a huge snow event.

Yeah, I agree, 52/50 atm, hoping to be in the upper 30's around sun up but even that seems like a stretch at this point. Keep in mind there is a lot of variability in the algorithms used to generate these sn maps. While the 0z NAM sn map on Allan's site hardly showed anything, the ones on Earl Barker's page do. This is from the 0z NAM using the Kuchera algorithm

CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_24HR.gif

0z NAM total sn-fall using a stock 10:1 ratio with sn flag set

CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_24HR.gif

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Yeah, I agree, 52/50 atm, hoping to be in the upper 30's around sun up but even that seems like a stretch at this point. Keep in mind there is a lot of variability in the algorithms used to generate these sn maps. While the 0z NAM sn map on Allan's site hardly showed anything, the ones on Earl Barker's page do. This is from the 0z NAM using the Kuchera algorithm

Good point... it's easy to forget about how the snow maps are generated and how much hope to put on snow maps...soundings and liquid precip is the way to go. Thanks for keeping us folks too lazy to track this storm informed...the severe event and previous snowstorm wiped me out.

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Ya good points. This might be a look out your window and see what it is doing. There is a lot of heavy rain coming in and that might generate enough cooling to change some to snow. Also just a side note, all this rain is great for the people down east with the drought. Great to see some nice steady rains moving in.

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Well its hard to think the models suggesting snow for us were right given the current temp/dp however just west of Raleigh DP are in the 20's if that air works in then who knows.....My earlier hope for this event are waning and I guess I will hope to see good news when I wake up.

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Well its hard to think the models suggesting snow for us were right given the current temp/dp however just west of Raleigh DP are in the 20's if that air works in then who knows.....My earlier hope for this event are waning and I guess I will hope to see good news when I wake up.

dp still around 50 here, some mid 40's coming in from the south, Kinston has 46, Kenansville same, so likely going to be driven by rates in the morning, if we do in fact mix or changeover for a period. 3km HRRR consistent every run painting an inch or so through here. Doubt see how the nam and GFS AF that far out in left field with the SN maps. Either the models SN products are really off, or we do in fact see some tokens out of this, who knows. Not much invested in this one, kind of a novelty tracking over the last 48hrs. 0z EC has us below 0 at 850 by 7am, around 3-4 tenths fall thereafter. Should be done by noon. Need the rain, seeding some grass yesterday in anticipation of it. Be nice to see a surprise with ptype, been awhile since we have had one, but they do happen from time to time around here. Even last year when mhx got 6 or 7, the models did not have them changing over till late afternoon, and it was marginal, yet it started around mid day and temps did not make it out of the upper 20's for them, we were hanging out eating mexican while the coast got crushed. Stayed up too late, need sleep, later

Edit: airport just picked up a n wind, dp down 9 degrees in the past 45 minutes

4b6e341a-11a2-237e.jpg

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Well the NAM paints no snow but the GFS still has a big swath of snow along the coastal areas. I think the caost maybe hard pressed to see any flakes at this point. Temps are still warm with temps in the mid 40s. Some may get lucky as the moisture pulls away up in NE NC but the soundings still look very warm and i don't think the cooling in the upper layers is deep enough to transfer to the surface.

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MHX saying we might have some snow in the area around daybreak from the clipper hopefully it pans out I would like to see more than a handfull of flakes for this winter...

Monday: A slight chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Southeast wind 6 to 16 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected

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