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Our region's extreme run


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So basically what RodneyS is saying is that averages tend to...well...average out the peaks and valleys we can sometimes get.

At least for the last decade in DC. However, precipitation at DCA was below the 1871-2011 DC averages 12 out of 14 months during August 2001 to September 2002, with only 27.70 inches recorded during that period, versus an 1871-2011 average amount for those 14 months of 48.59 inches -- a deficit of 20.89 inches, or 43%. Further, there was a more significant drought in DC during November 1929 to April 1931. During those 18 consecutive months, precipitation was below the 1871-2011 averages in each month. During that period, a total of only 34.85 inches of precipitation were recorded, versus an 1871-2011 average amount of 59.29 inches -- a deficit of 24.44 inches, or 41%.

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  • 5 weeks later...

Added hottest spring ever record (which we've already clinched). May will be somewhere in the top 10, but the exact placement depends upon the overall temp departure for today.

I wonder if Mattie g or Ellinwood will ever admit I was right. Probably not... LOL

I think things are now finalized: May 2012 in DC checks in with an average temperature of 71.4 degrees, third on the all-time list behind 1991 (73.0) and 2004 (71.8). However, spring (March-May) 2012 easily shatters the all-time record, with an average temperature of 62.2 degrees, beating the 1977 record of 60.7 degrees by 1.5 degrees. Further, the first five months of 2012 averaged 54.3 degrees, beating the 1991 record of 52.3 degrees by 2.0 degrees. Finally, the most recent 12 months (June 2011 to May 2012) averaged 61.8 degrees, beating the two-month-old warmest 12 consecutive months record of 61.6 degrees set during April 2011 to March 2012.

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I think things are now finalized: May 2012 in DC checks in with an average temperature of 71.4 degrees, third on the all-time list behind 1991 (73.0) and 2004 (71.8). However, spring (March-May) 2012 easily shatters the all-time record, with an average temperature of 62.2 degrees, beating the 1977 record of 60.7 degrees by 1.5 degrees. Further, the first five months of 2012 averaged 54.3 degrees, beating the 1991 record of 52.3 degrees by 2.0 degrees. Finally, the most recent 12 months (June 2011 to May 2012) averaged 61.8 degrees, beating the two-month-old warmest 12 consecutive months record of 61.6 degrees set during April 2011 to March 2012.

Rodney, I noticed that LWX updated their monthly temperature numbers at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/dcatemps.txt

It now has 1944 as 71.6. My old spreadsheet placed us third, but with the update it looks like this May was 4th.

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Rodney, I noticed that LWX updated their monthly temperature numbers at http://www.erh.noaa....ca/dcatemps.txt

It now has 1944 as 71.6. My old spreadsheet placed us third, but with the update it looks like this May was 4th.

Thanks. 71.6 for May 1944 is indeed consistent with the daily figures that I have for that month. I would guess that the difference between the old 70.8 figure and the new 71.6 figure for May 1944 is the difference between using the old Weather Bureau at 24th and M Streets NW or (Reagan) National Airport for the official numbers. Weather records have been kept at National Airport since July 1, 1942, but the last I knew it was not the official source until July 1, 1945. Has that now changed?

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Thanks. 71.6 for May 1944 is indeed consistent with the daily figures that I have for that month. I would guess that the difference between the old 70.8 figure and the new 71.6 figure for May 1944 is the difference between using the old Weather Bureau at 24th and M Streets NW or (Reagan) National Airport for the official numbers. Weather records have been kept at National Airport since July 1, 1942, but the last I knew it was not the official source until July 1, 1945. Has that now changed?

I had not seen anything about it, but they must have change the website for a reason.

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Thanks. 71.6 for May 1944 is indeed consistent with the daily figures that I have for that month. I would guess that the difference between the old 70.8 figure and the new 71.6 figure for May 1944 is the difference between using the old Weather Bureau at 24th and M Streets NW or (Reagan) National Airport for the official numbers. Weather records have been kept at National Airport since July 1, 1942, but the last I knew it was not the official source until July 1, 1945. Has that now changed?

There is some uncertainty about the early 40s and where Obs were taken. 24th and M? DCA? The old airport off 395? I know snow for 43-44 just changed out of nowhere. When I used to have the written data it was confusing and inconsistent. So not sure. I think they were split at one point and/ or may have gone back and forth. Ian or Jason Samenow might know

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  • 1 month later...

Not exactly breaking news, but the DCA 2012 First Half average temperature of 58.0 degrees easily broke the previous DC record of 56.4 set in 1991. June 2012 finished at 76.2, placing it in a tie for 23rd warmest on the all-time list. First Half precipitation, on the other hand, was the 7th lowest all-time, at only 13.12 inches. June 2012 finished at 2.38 inches, marking the 6th consecutive month of below normal precipitation at DCA.

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All stats for DCA

Temperatures:

5th warmest April (2010)

2nd warmest Spring (2010)

Warmest and 3rd warmest June (2010 & 2011)

Warmest month and warmest July (2011), 2nd warmest July and T-2nd warmest month (2010)

Warmest and second warmest Summer (2010 & 2011)

4th warmest September (2010)

4th warmest Autumn (2010)

3rd warmest Winter (2011-12)

4th warmest Year (2011)

T-5th warmest Year (2010)

Warmest March (2012)

Warmest Jan-Mar (2012)

Longest 95+ high streak (2012)

Snow:

Snowiest December (2009)

2nd snowiest Month and 2nd snowiest February (2010)

Snowiest Winter (2009-10)

3rd least snowy Winter (2011-12)

Precipitation:

Driest February (2009)

5th driest July (2009)

5th wettest Sept (2011)

2nd wettest Dec (2009)

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 5 weeks later...
  • 5 weeks later...

The beat goes on: January-September 2012 checks in at an average 65.0 degrees, breaking the 1991 first nine months record by 1.6 degrees.

The way the first half of Oct. 2012 is looking per models, it would appear that it will likely be a good bit colder than 1991 fwiw. However, that would only put a fairly small dent in the +1.6. Nov. 1991 was quite chilly. So, it will be quite difficult for 11/2012 to be colder than that 11/1991. Now, Dec. 1991 was very warm. So, if we could get a cold Dec., rather big gains could be made then. Regardless, overcoming 1.6 F in Oct.-Dec. will be very tough.

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The way the first half of Oct. 2012 is looking per models, it would appear that it will likely be a good bit colder than 1991 fwiw. However, that would only put a fairly small dent in the +1.6. Nov. 1991 was quite chilly. So, it will be quite difficult for 11/2012 to be colder than that 11/1991. Now, Dec. 1991 was very warm. So, if we could get a cold Dec., rather big gains could be made then. Regardless, overcoming 1.6 F in Oct.-Dec. will be very tough.

I just calculated that for the average 2012 temperature at DCA to fall to 1991's average of 60.2 degrees would require a negative departure averaging four degrees in October, November, and December. That, in turn, would make those three months the 22nd coldest fourth quarter of all time in DC, and the coldest since 1989, which featured a December that averaged 27.9 degrees -- tied for the second coldest all-time.

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One interesting trend that has run somewhat counter to the multi-year warm period we're in is the lowest maximums that BWI keeps getting in October. We had:

3 record lowest maximums broken and 1 tied in October 2009

1 record lowest maximum tied in October 2010

2 record lowest maximums broken in October 2011

Since October 2009, the only other low and lowest max temperature records BWI had were: (wait for it... its a long list...)

1 record low tied in May 2011

1 record lowest maximum broken in July 2012

So there seems to be something about October- so few record lows, yet they're almost all clustered in this month; however, it doesn't always match the monthly departures overall. Both Octobers 2010 and 2011 finished with above average temperatures for the month.

It will be interesting to see if we make more record lowest maximums this October.

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I just calculated that for the average 2012 temperature at DCA to fall to 1991's average of 60.2 degrees would require a negative departure averaging four degrees in October, November, and December. That, in turn, would make those three months the 22nd coldest fourth quarter of all time in DC, and the coldest since 1989, which featured a December that averaged 27.9 degrees -- tied for the second coldest all-time.

post-1746-0-67864200-1349197389_thumb.jp

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We did it again... Record lowest maximum tied at BWI today. That's four years in a row now. I wonder if there's a connection between climate change and cold outbreaks in October like this (I'm not saying there is, just speculating). Four years in a row and eight records broken or tied is significant.

We also shattered the low maximum record for October 8th at IAD by five degrees -- 51 today vs 56 in 2000. We just missed the record low maximum in DC, with a 55 degree reading at DCA. The DC record is 54, last recorded in 1910.

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  • 3 weeks later...

The beat goes on: January-September 2012 checks in at an average 65.0 degrees, breaking the 1991 first nine months record by 1.6 degrees.

January-October 2012 averaged 64.6 degrees at DCA, breaking the 2010 first ten warmest months record by 1.4 degrees. Further, the most recent 12 months, November 2011 to October 2012, broke the five-month-old twelve consecutive warmest months record of 61.8 set during June 2011 to May 2012 by 0.2 degrees, averaging 62.0 degrees.

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BWI record Oct daily rainfall from Sandy.

BWI record low pressure, DCA close.

I believe 10/29 was also the 5th wettest day ever at BWI, but I can't recheck it since Sterling's site is still down. Once it's back up I'm going to post the top five days.

Do you or anyone else know what the records are for top wind gusts at BWI and DCA? Say, top five or top ten events. I know 7/18/10 was 72 mph at BWI, which is the highest I've ever seen in my lifetime. I assume Hazel will be the highest- I thought I saw that mentioned in another thread. I know Sandy's winds won't make the list, but it just got me curious. I'm not even sure if wind records are tracked?

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