CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Oops, I mean Feb 8-15, not day 8-15. Yeah I figured..lol. The 11-15 day wasn't the greatest imo, but still some big differences. Still doesn't look great to me, though after the 14 or 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 cold is out by hr 168 on the 12z GFS...short blast of cold...hardly anything unusual for February even though the mad man in State College thinks it's going to get to "near" 0 on Monday in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 cold is out by hr 168 on the 12z GFS...short blast of cold...hardly anything unusual for February even though the mad man in State College thinks it's going to get to "near" 0 on Monday in NYC. JB is smoking something special this year. The man is completely delusional. The last time the temp got below 10 in Feb in NYC was 8F on Feb 5, 2007. And that was following a bitter latter half of Jan and WITH widespread snowcover. The only other time in the past decade that we've gotten below 10 is back in 2003 on Feb 15 (9F). And we all know what was happening then... I believe the last time we got to 0 or below was in Jan 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 cold is out by hr 168 on the 12z GFS...short blast of cold...hardly anything unusual for February even though the mad man in State College thinks it's going to get to "near" 0 on Monday in NYC. I think he was quoted wrong, from reading his tweets he never says thats his forecast. He said the euro shows it getting down that cold. Never actually saw him say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I think he was quoted wrong, from reading his tweets he never says thats his forecast. He said the euro shows it getting down that cold. Never actually saw him say that. WB post from last night: Below the euro 48 is the arctic attack it has and implications, with -23 air at 5k, sub 495 thk and north wind and a snowcover to boot from the arctic wave that passes through on the weekend, is that NYC could get darn close to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 WB post from last night: Below the euro 48 is the arctic attack it has and implications, with -23 air at 5k, sub 495 thk and north wind and a snowcover to boot from the arctic wave that passes through on the weekend, is that NYC could get darn close to 0. yea but hes quoting what the euro shows...he doesnt say he is forecasting 0 in nyc..or is that what you are implying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 JB is smoking something special this year. The man is completely delusional. The last time the temp got below 10 in Feb in NYC was 8F on Feb 5, 2007. And that was following a bitter latter half of Jan and WITH widespread snowcover. The only other time in the past decade that we've gotten below 10 is back in 2003 on Feb 15 (9F). And we all know what was happening then... I believe the last time we got to 0 or below was in Jan 1994. You forgot Jan 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Seeing as how NYC has only gotten to 0 or below in Feb 27 times since 1876, the last time being in 1978, I'm gonna have to go with highly unlikely on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 You forgot Jan 04. Jan 04 in the park got down to 1, but never 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Jan 04 in the park got down to 1, but never 0. Nvr mnd, I missed the "in feb" part of your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yea but hes quoting what the euro shows...he doesnt say he is forecasting 0 in nyc..or is that what you are implying? It's often difficult to discern what his actual forecast is. Giving him the benfit of the doubt, In this case I think he's picked the model showing the most extreme event as in 'this is what could happen'. Can't imagine anyone forecasting for their livelihood actually predicting 0 in NYC in this pattern. I'd say 15 is a realistic number even with a little snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 His zero potential for NYC hinges on the "emperor of the north" putting down snow with the "suprise weekend" event from the mason dixon line on north....and then the number busting low level artic air over the fresh snow. All that said....White Plains maybe NYC....no It's often difficult to discern what his actual forecast is. Giving him the benfit of the doubt, In this case I think he's picked the model showing the most extreme event as in 'this is what could happen'. Can't imagine anyone forecasting for their livelihood actually predicting 0 in NYC in this pattern. I'd say 15 is a realistic number even with a little snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 His zero potential for NYC hinges on the "emperor of the north" putting down snow with the "suprise weekend" event from the mason dixon line on north....and then the number busting low level artic air over the fresh snow. All that said....White Plains maybe NYC....no Yea to get NYC to 0 you'd need fresh snow and 850s down to like < -30C. Last winter we had ~20" on the ground and bitterly cold 850s (not sure how low but I think they were around -25C) and the park only got down to 6F (holy hell was that a cold morning though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yea to get NYC to 0 you'd need fresh snow and 850s down to like < -30C. Last winter we had ~20" on the ground and bitterly cold 850s (not sure how low but I think they were around -25C) and the park only got down to 6F (holy hell was that a cold morning though). I lived in NYC for 30 some odd years and its not easy at all. You also need the completion of the cold air advection to coincide directly with the night and for the surface winds to remain due north. The Euro ensemble means 850 temps have remained about 5-10C warmer than the op 12z run(s), I know you're going to lose some of the detail from faster or not as southward departure of the cold core, but that's a pretty sizeable discrepancy. BTW none of the 00z NAEFS ensemble members bring NYC even down to 5F (0% chance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I lived in NYC for 30 some odd years and its not easy at all. You also need the completion of the cold air advection to coincide directly with the night and for the surface winds to remain due north. The Euro ensemble means 850 temps have remained about 5-10C warmer than the op 12z run(s), I know you're going to lose some of the detail from faster or not as southward departure of the cold core, but that's a pretty sizeable discrepancy. BTW none of the 00z NAEFS ensemble members bring NYC even down to 5F (0% chance). Yep, that due north wind coming down the Hudson is absolutely necessary, and it has to be there at 4-6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 yea but hes quoting what the euro shows...he doesnt say he is forecasting 0 in nyc..or is that what you are implying? See Paul's comment but he was also showing the model and saying it supported the idea of near 0 in NYC. Considering the coldest the Euro was in recent days for NYC was maybe -20 at 850...even with snow cover, you're hardpressed with urban heating to get near 0 in New York with a -20 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Last 10 days of Feb are looking pretty similar to the last 10 days in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 rain storm has been showing up consistently for later next week, more great news for ski season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Here is JBs stand on a wintry weekend in the area "The GFS is a) rushing energy in the northern branch out to fast..normal for it does not understand energy is coming from the southern branch, not all of it but enough. In fact snows will break out in the southern plains later tomorrow and MERGE near the mid atlantic with this Saturday c) is not focusing the height fall center. While no map is issued yet, and arcing 3 inch plus area from NJ to southern New england is my current idea , with other areas over 3 in the mountains of wva and va and across the lower lakes. The arctic low should travel ese and probably have its pressure fall center move through the midwest and along the mason Dixon line while a new low takes over the NC coast Saturday. The entire euro sequence is closer to my idea. Its also better on Sunday and Monday too,with the coldest air of the season into the northeast and with snow cover i am looking at 0 in boston and single digits in NYC. So there I stand there." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 rain storm has been showing up consistently for later next week, more great news for ski season It's been brutal at Spring Mountain. It looks like they've been skiing (when they can - some nights and weekend days they are closed due to rain and temps above 40) on a combo of man-made snowcone glop and mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Last 10 days of Feb are looking pretty similar to the last 10 days in Jan. Yeah, can't wait...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Yeah, can't wait...lol. And as an added bonus we get an extra day of it this year. The cold shot this weekend is good, too many plants are way ahead of schedule, our red maples are already starting to pollinate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The long range storm on the GFS looks better, though still rain - goes south and develops off the coast. Would like to see some Canadian highs before it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 His zero potential for NYC hinges on the "emperor of the north" putting down snow with the "suprise weekend" event from the mason dixon line on north....and then the number busting low level artic air over the fresh snow. All that said....White Plains maybe NYC....no I like Iceman's 15 to be perfectly honest and like the others this past winter right or wrong I'll post the final answer on Monday or Tuesday. Getting back to our part of the world, 4th straight run (and 3rd different state) that the Euro norluns on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It's been brutal at Spring Mountain. It looks like they've been skiing (when they can - some nights and weekend days they are closed due to rain and temps above 40) on a combo of man-made snowcone glop and mud. i took my son there on thursday for a lesson, he still had fun 12 gfs looks better for later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 May be we'll get something out of this before it goes back to the circle of death. Graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS216.gif I know it's 216 hours out but that is a pretty strong signal for a storm on the east coast from the Euro Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like Iceman's 15 to be perfectly honest and like the others this past winter right or wrong I'll post the final answer on Monday or Tuesday. Getting back to our part of the world, 4th straight run (and 3rd different state) that the Euro norluns on Saturday. If the EC from last night is right that 15 is pretty reasonable for a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS216.gif I know it's 216 hours out but that is a pretty strong signal for a storm on the east coast from the Euro Ensembles. Yeah, it's a strong signal for a storm, but it's not a strong snow signal for the coast. It could happen, but it would have to be a thread the needle type thing with no block and no ambient cold air. Still, a much better signal than we've seen most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah, it's a strong signal for a storm, but it's not a strong snow signal for the coast. It could happen, but it would have to be a thread the needle type thing with no block and no ambient cold air. Still, a much better signal than we've seen most of the winter. Yeah i didn't call it a snowstorm, just a strong signal for a storm. I think the Euro and the ensembles have been beating this drum for a few runs in a row now. Hopefully for us snow lovers it trends colder and for you tropical guys, you just have to wait a little longer for the warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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