HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If we only had a little snowcover... Thought the same thing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Hopefully for those that have a shot, the 00z runs don't come nw. It does have somewhat of a limit, but it still could screw some areas that are on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I guess we will be missing the BOX Bi-polar or whatever radar a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 NW has been the concern this winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Thursday looks like a stormy day with a significant amount of rain and wind from Boston south and east. However, it may be just cold enough for sleet or snow for part of the storm north and west of Boston, particularly from The Berkshires to the higher elevations of Worcester County to The Monadnock Region of N.H and from the intersection of routes 2 and 495 north and west. Those are the areas with the best chance of getting accumulating snow. However, some accumulation cannot be ruled out north of The Mass. Pike and in the 128 to 495 belt, as well. Winds will be gusty from the NE as this will be a mini nor'easter. Highs will range from the 30s north and west of Boston to the 40s across SE MA., Cape Cod and The Islands. This is from Harveys blog on wcvb! he likes the colder solution for 495 north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I could see a high thickness snow for many on the euro. Yeah there might be an isothermal layer, but lift, and CAA or CAD from high pressure to the north may help ensure that. It's tough to get a lot of ice with the H5 low going underneath you. Kind of an old timer rule, if you know what I mean. If it's more north than that's different..just saying as is. Yes that is true. Rarely do we get significant icing events when the vortmax travels under us. The track def argues for more snow than ice at this point, but the antecedent airmass in the mid-levels might try to make some exceptions...but as we get closer, the mid-levels have been trending colder, so it might end up snowier. We'll just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Figure with the storm within 72 hours, we could break away to a new thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31730-thursdays-storm-rain-wind-snow-and-ice/#entry1259769 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 925 temps and 850 temps regarding the 0C line are just south of ORH at 18z Thursday. Almost in the same area. Meanwhile 700 temps are like -4C at the same time. So there is going to be a pretty good isothermal layer I think. But, with good high pressure to the north, it will help the lower levels anyways. Probably aggregate city for a time, esp ORH north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Figure with the storm within 72 hours, we could break away to a new thread: http://www.americanw...e/#entry1259769 Good thinking Sam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL cmon folks! I was just poking fun at Scott for calling for a 100% cutter a couple of days ago. I did that because he poked fun at my wishcast today.. Jeez you call my post dumb but when Kevin calls for 1-2 inches tonight and ray mentions aids.. that's ok? Anyways, it will be interesting to see what the trend will be in this "new pattern" - at least heading towards a new pattern. Also the Nam really explodes Kevin's Pike special in the Atlantic.. wow No, we both admitted we were wrong......unlike you, who continues to dig the hole deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 925 temps and 850 temps regarding the 0C line are just south of ORH at 18z Thursday. Almost in the same area. Meanwhile 700 temps are like -4C at the same time. So there is going to be a pretty good isothermal layer I think. But, with good high pressure to the north, it will help the lower levels anyways. Probably aggregate city for a time, esp ORH north. I made a mistake earlier. At 925mb, I quoted where the 30F line was, not 32F. It's weird but the 925mb temps I have are in F and not C, so I made a mistake about the 925mb 0C temps being north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 925 temps and 850 temps regarding the 0C line are just south of ORH at 18z Thursday. Almost in the same area. Meanwhile 700 temps are like -4C at the same time. So there is going to be a pretty good isothermal layer I think. But, with good high pressure to the north, it will help the lower levels anyways. Probably aggregate city for a time, esp ORH north. I'm almost ready to call for a plowable snow for my northern zones...but I want to wait and see the 00z suite...still over 48h out at this point so no need to get too trigger happy. I gave them a nice warning in the Oct event...but I'm working off a bust in the 12/23 event...such is the life of forecasting. I still worry about this ripping NW along the east side of that midwest trough. Could end up more ice if that happens. But the CAD is getting stronger. Even the very warm NAM had a period of ice in the interior hills...the sfc air mass to the north is cold and dry which is what you want to see...those high dewpoint depressions. That's how we iced so effectively in 2008 despite mraginal temps...steady flow of dry air from Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm almost ready to call for a plowable snow for my northern zones...but I want to wait and see the 00z suite...still over 48h out at this point so no need to get too trigger happy. I gave them a nice warning in the Oct event...but I'm working off a bust in the 12/23 event...such is the life of forecasting. I still worry about this ripping NW along the east side of that midwest trough. Could end up more ice if that happens. But the CAD is getting stronger. Even the very warm NAM had a period of ice in the interior hills...the sfc air mass to the north is cold and dry which is what you want to see...those high dewpoint depressions. That's how we iced so effectively in 2008 despite mraginal temps...steady flow of dry air from Maine. I'm still pretty pissed about that Finally something worth watching a few models for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We finished here about 20% below avg with the mega block from hell that winter I thought you guys cashed in February into March last year, the year before was the worse of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Move on over...this has over 1000 replies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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