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NNE Heart of Winter


Allenson

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Is that the big hockey tournament? I didn't know it was this weekend. Pumped if it is!

No, the big fishing derby. You're in for quite a treat. Just go to Meredith this weekend... prize time is Sunday afternoon.

This is supposedly the first year *ever* that the ice in Meredith Bay is iffy. Could be interesting when they get a few thousand people, bob houses, food vendors, snowmobiles, trucks and the helicopter out there. :yikes:

Oddly, center harbor, alton, 19 mile, and 20 mile bays are all reported as nice and thick according to the rotary club.

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No, the big fishing derby. You're in for quite a treat. Just go to Meredith this weekend... prize time is Sunday afternoon.

This is supposedly the first year *ever* that the ice in Meredith Bay is iffy. Could be interesting when they get a few thousand people, bob houses, food vendors, snowmobiles, trucks and the helicopter out there. :yikes:

Oddly, center harbor, alton, 19 mile, and 20 mile bays are all reported as nice and thick according to the rotary club.

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Wow, There brave, I would not be out there with all that weight on the ice, They cancelled the Seabago lake derby, And that is $100,000.00 in prizes because of unsafe conditions with the thousands of people that woulkd have been out there

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I'm a little surprised that they will let all those people out there....or maybe they won't? From what I heard, the ice was iffy in Meredith and Eek confirmed it.

It's a narrow shallow bay which usually freezes about 18-20 inches thick... enough to support about 18-20 tons so normally it's plenty safe.

As of a few days ago, there wasn't even a way out onto the ice there. The town shut off the aquatherms around the docks to help the water freeze right up to the boat launch/access point.

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It's a narrow shallow bay which usually freezes about 18-20 inches thick... enough to support about 18-20 tons so normally it's plenty safe.

As of a few days ago, there wasn't even a way out onto the ice there. The town shut off the aquatherms around the docks to help the water freeze right up to the boat launch/access point.

Oh ok. That will work.

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Wow, There brave, I would not be out there with all that weight on the ice, They cancelled the Seabago lake derby, And that is $100,000.00 in prizes because of unsafe conditions with the thousands of people that woulkd have been out there

2nd time in 3 yr it's been canceled, though in 2010 they started it, had some people break thru (all got out safely) and it was stopped. At least one other derby in S.Maine has been pushed back to late Feb due to poor ice. They did get to run the dogsleds in Farmington last weekend, but I imagine the runners were scratching the dirt in places.

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2nd time in 3 yr it's been canceled, though in 2010 they started it, had some people break thru (all got out safely) and it was stopped. At least one other derby in S.Maine has been pushed back to late Feb due to poor ice. They did get to run the dogsleds in Farmington last weekend, but I imagine the runners were scratching the dirt in places.

A few people out on the ice and a few vehicles is one thing, But that many that were going to participate forget it, I am quite sure the lake north of Frye Island heading back towards the Songo is open, It takes a lot of cold for the big part of the lake to freeze......

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I was just looking through some of BTV's past storms and was looking at some of the graphics from that Dec 28 upslope event that was focused on the western slopes due to a ridge-top inversion. We only had 2-5" in Stowe village, while the western side of the mountain had 8-13". I've been trying to look at inversion levels and how they distribute the snowfall around here and its amazing how the inversion level pretty much tells you if the snow will be heavier on the west side, right over the Spine, or on the eastern side. The higher the inversion level, the further east the heavier snow makes it.

The Dec 28 event had the inversion centered around the 4,000ft ridgeline, or right around 875mb.

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With that type of inversion level we get blocked flow and it dumps on the west side.

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And I wish I had access to this type of radar scan... this is awesome. The cross section across the Lake/BTV/Spine. The higher the inversion level is, the further east the heaviest snow makes it. If it had been 100mb higher up, the heaviest probably would've been centered right over the Spine and split between both the east and west sides.

Figure7.png

That's how boring the weather has been lately... its time to go back and look at past events, lol. Hopefully we can get some upslope going with the arctic fronts this weekend.

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Well, whatever happens, there'll a hulluva cold shot coming Sunday night. GFS prints out -32C (-27F) at 4,700ft (850mb) and -26C (-15F) and 2,400ft (925mb).

The Euro has impressive numbers as well getting the -28C isotherm at 850mb into NNE.

I could definitely seeing some areas in the Dacks like SLK getting close to -25F while most of NNE gets down to -15F. Mansfield could easily get to -30F if the Polar Vortex parks itself over us Sunday night.

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Well, whatever happens, there'll a hulluva cold shot coming Sunday night. GFS prints out -32C (-27F) at 4,700ft (850mb) and -26C (-15F) and 2,400ft (925mb).

The Euro has impressive numbers as well getting the -28C isotherm at 850mb into NNE.

I could definitely seeing some areas in the Dacks like SLK getting close to -25F while most of NNE gets down to -15F. Mansfield could easily get to -30F if the Polar Vortex parks itself over us Sunday night.

If H85s like those verify and there's good radiational cooling, SLK might get closer to -35 than -25. N Maine (PQI) reached -20 last night with a far less impressive package of cold air.

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If H85s like those verify and there's good radiational cooling, SLK might get closer to -35 than -25. N Maine (PQI) reached -20 last night with a far less impressive package of cold air.

True. Only issue is that there may be LL moisture and orographic snows sunday into sunday night as another arctic front pushes through, therefore eliminating radiational cooling for some. Still 96h out so we'll see how that plays out. But yeah, if its clear and light wind, watch out for some serious cold air approaching -30 or -35

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True. Only issue is that there may be LL moisture and orographic snows sunday into sunday night as another arctic front pushes through, therefore eliminating radiational cooling for some. Still 96h out so we'll see how that plays out. But yeah, if its clear and light wind, watch out for some serious cold air approaching -30 or -35

SLK hit -40 in January 2009 with 850s around -30C, so I would think they'd get down to at least -30F, perhaps colder.

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It looks like our upslope potential is less with the storm tracking further NW down near SNE... the front sort of washes out too... I'm thinking 1-3" at this time for the weekend up here.

Oh well, I honestly hope that storm down south comes solidly NW to hit a good chunk of eastern New England. The BOS crowd deserves some snow this season, too. Also you Maine guys on the coast look to be in the game on the NAM in a big way. Hopefully that continues and even up towards Dendrite if that ticks a bit more NW. Its certainly something to watch.

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Awesome web cam capture!

Another really nice day with highs in the mid to upper 30s and not a cloud in the sky. Lows in the teens, highs in the 30s, sunshine... may be boring as all lleh, but not going to lie I've been enjoying it on the mountain. Its like Colorado weather with low humidity and recycled dry powder still hiding around the mountain. First time all season I've seen south facing slopes soften up to a manky mush. Very springlike feature to also see south facing road-sides melting out quickly. Stuff south-facing and under evergreens down here in town has really opened up... still a rock solid snowpack in the shade and anything but south facing slopes, however it is a reminder that spring is coming quickly.

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Long range GFS has been showing a potential weenie pattern with a lot of quick moving storms. Unfortunately a good chunk of them would be mixed events, but I'd take my chances with a stormy pattern right now. with at least some things to track. I think we'd be in a decent situation here in NNE if we were to get into a little more robust pattern with regards to a parade of shortwaves.

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Well, not much to report, lads.

Pretty nice days, coldish at night, our crusty 6-8" is hanging on & the road/driveway is glare ice. Buckets of sand on hand.

I went night skiing for the first time in my life last night. I'm almost 42, I've been skiing since I was about 5 or so and have never, until last night gone night skiing (under lights, meaning). I was pretty surreal.

I subbed for a buddy of mine (sunning himself in the Virgin Islands) who's on a team in a racing league down at Whaleback--very icy course and I haven't run gates in about ten years. Anyway, two successful runs... ;)

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Listening to the morning weather broadcasts, it sounds like it’s going to be pretty decent on the slopes for Saturday – some snow is coming in, and temperatures are now expected to stay in the mid 20s F. It does get colder by Sunday though. For snow accumulations, based on comments from Roger Hill and the Eye on the Sky crew, the potential is there for 4 to 5 inches through the weekend in the mountains, with lower amounts in the valleys. Our point forecast calls for up to a couple of inches through tomorrow, but snow is in the forecast from tonight right through to Sunday night:

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We could use a freshening of the snowpack though; we’ve now elapsed one third of the month and I’ve only recorded 3.4 inches of snowfall at our location. February is (marginally) the snowiest month around here according to the snowfall data I have collected, with a five-year mean of ~45 inches at our spot in the valley, and certainly substantially more than that in the mountains. With this early February dry stretch, season snowfall has now dropped to 70.9% of average relative to the past six seasons (including this one). Snowfall is still running well ahead of 2006-2007 (58.2 inches as of this date), but that is likely to change by the beginning of next week because 2006-2007 had a dramatic increase in snowfall (~30 inches) due to the Valentine’s Day Storm. That event shot the season snowfall up to near 90 inches at that point, and I don’t see this season getting there by the beginning of next week, so 2011-2012 will likely move into the bottom spot in my records for the coming stretch.

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