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December 29-31st 2 Clipper Potentials


dmc76

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The GFS does not support it.

With BL temps being mild and UA temps marginal, about all we'll see around here is some RA/SN.

I think the chance is there for a slushy accumulation. More so in the evening. Predicted low here is 32°.

This might be one of those "wait and see what happens" kind of events once it gets here. lol

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MKX calling for freezing rain. That could get interesting.

...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL

TRACK FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN

AROUND NOON ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN TO

DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS IT

FALLS ON COLD ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF

FREEZING RAIN WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST AIR TEMPERATURES CAN WARM

THE COLD SURFACES BEFORE ANY RAIN STARTS TO FALL.

THE MIXED LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM

SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN

IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE ENDING

AROUND THE NOON HOUR.

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MKX calling for freezing rain. That could get interesting.

...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL

TRACK FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN

AROUND NOON ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN TO

DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS IT

FALLS ON COLD ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF

FREEZING RAIN WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST AIR TEMPERATURES CAN WARM

THE COLD SURFACES BEFORE ANY RAIN STARTS TO FALL.

THE MIXED LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM

SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN

IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE ENDING

AROUND THE NOON HOUR.

The keyword in that statement is LIGHT. I suppose even 0.01-0.05" of freezing rain could make roads slick, but it is probably not going to be worth noting, not to mention the RUC doesn't show any precip south of Sheboygan from this tiny clipper before the more significant one.

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The keyword in that statement is LIGHT. I suppose even 0.01-0.05" of freezing rain could make roads slick, but it is probably not going to be worth noting, not to mention the RUC doesn't show any precip south of Sheboygan from this tiny clipper before the more significant one.

Radar looks pretty solid right now, and the HRRR is showing a good hit (all of which it is saying is ZR): http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=rr:&runTime=2011122821&plotName=cref_q2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=q2&wjet=1

This is a fairly decent overrunning event all in all, the clipper is going to be coming right over the cold dome. Caveats are if the sfc gets too warm and we get all rain, or the sfc layer ends up being so extremely dry that we get virga. Plenty of bust potential but I'm hopeful.

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Here's part of the Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Cleveland at 719pm est this evening...

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH A FAST ZONAL FLOW

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES WILL

IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL

QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRAZE THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF

THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY. IN THE MORNING

THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW WHILE TEMPERATURES

BECAUSE MARGINAL IN THE AFTERNOON. I WILL MENTION A TRANSITION FROM

LIGHT SNOW TO A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY. IN GENERAL THIS

IS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN GENERAL WILL

BE VERY LIGHT AND I DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THE

HEELS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND

IT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS

SYSTEM ARE MARGINAL AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO

PREDICT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A

RAIN PROFILE THAN SNOW BUT...SNOW WILL DEFINITELY MIX IN THE

PRECIPITATION PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME

I WILL LEAVE A MIXED BAG OF PCPN FOR FRIDAY UNTIL THE PICTURE

BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY

BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US

WITH A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK A

LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR HIGHS ON THU AND FRIDAY. I WILL MOSTLY

LIKELY SHAVE A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE.

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You Detroit and Chicago guys will love the 00z NAM.

Granted, the temps are marginal, but still...

BTW, this one does have stark similarities to a storm from 2007-2008 that should remain nameless in this thread.

A nice swap of 3-7 inches from Chicago to Detroit!! :wub:

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You Detroit and Chicago guys will love the 00z NAM.

Granted, the temps are marginal, but still...

BTW, this one does have stark similarities to a storm from 2007-2008 that should remain nameless in this thread.

Didn't expect that with the NAM tonight! This is an evening event luckily.

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