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Tropopause_Fold

Christmas (Sunday) Night - Windex Potential

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I don't know what is happening down in the village but by the web cam at 800ft it looks like its dumping down there too. Pretty dark in that picture and large looking flakes. Looks the same as up here.

Keep the powder coming!

Snowstorm on Christmas in progress.

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Interesting...this very well may be an indicator of good lapse rates in the mid-levels as those echoes looked a bit convective.

Yeah I was posting earlier that if we can punch some omega into the mid-levels...we may get some heavy snow squalls later...the LL lapse rates are the only thing that is a bit marginal right now on the WINDEX parameters...but everything else...the LI spike, the LL moisture (and pretty high up into mid-levels as a bonus) look good.

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I think the intensity of echos on these mesoscale models should be ignored. I think placement of echos is more important. Maybe a met can chime in.

In my experience, the HRRR does a very good job with evolution. Errors will occur, as with all models, in timing and placement. However, the stronger the forcing the better the HRRR tends to perform. Meaning in this situation it is probably more reliable than not.

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Just got crushed today and continue to get hit. Thank you orographics.

A little over 4" at my house since 10am, and now over 5" at 1,500ft since 10am.

Christmas Clipper Event FTW!

Just dumped all afternoon.

My car when leaving work...

Ho ho ho Merry Christmas!

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Everything but south coast communities hit on 19z HRRR in the next 7 hours.

Latest from BOX

VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN NY STATE AS SEEN ON

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS TO SWIFTLY MOVE ACROSS

THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE FAST NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS

WILL HELP INVIGORATE WEAK WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY AS WELL AS

ANOTHER WEAK LOW WORKING UP THE COAST WELL OFFSHORE. SHORT RANGE

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING SYSTEM ACROSS OVERNIGHT.

ONE BIG CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE NOW DEVELOPING THE RESULTANT

LOW OFFSHORE FURTHER E THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO...LOOKS LIKE THE

MEASURABLE PRECIP FIELD WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE

AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. ALSO CUT BACK ON POPS...WITH CHANCE FOR

ALL AREAS...HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

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