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eyewall

The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread

548 posts in this topic

That's not the actual forecast from Farmer's Almanac, they aren't that stupid. It's actually from some clown from this joke of a website: http://weatheradvance.com/

I mean seriously, it's worse than wishcasting; it's complete, flat-out lying.

For a minute there I thought Joe Bastardi had become editor of the Farmer's Almanac.

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For a minute there I thought Joe Bastardi had become editor of the Farmer's Almanac.

lol... I thought the same thing...Looks like his map fram a couple of years back.

From everything I’ve been reading it looks like most are thinking we will have "slightly" more favorable conditions for winter weather here in the SE. It really comes down to the strength of El Nino, storm track (influenced by El Nino), the global patterns (AO, NAO), and lots of luck. As stated before my area averages about 7” of snow a year. I would be overjoyed to get that or more.

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That would be a perfect storm of -AO and El Nino on the border of weak/mdt. I'm afraid the AO will be mainly positive this winter, especially late when El Nino would normally have a better chance of creating cold. Result is only seasonable temps, not cold. Don't let your heart be troubled though. Winter will almost certainly be better than last year - I know a low bar. Split El Nino flow is a plus for the Southeast, even if mild most of the time.

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That would be a perfect storm of -AO and El Nino on the border of weak/mdt. (1) I'm afraid the AO will be mainly positive this winter, especially late when El Nino would normally have a better chance of creating cold. Result is only seasonable temps, not cold. Don't let your heart be troubled though. Winter will almost certainly be better than last year - I know a low bar. (2) Split El Nino flow is a plus for the Southeast, even if mild most of the time.

(1) I'm curious as to your reasoning for this. Please expound...

(2) Agreed.

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(1) I'm curious as to your reasoning for this. Please expound...

(2) Agreed.

I read somewhere that warmer water temps in the Arctic and more open water (less ice) causes better chances of negative AO for the following winter. It seems like the worse the Arctic does the better chances of favorable (for cold SE) global patterns for us. From the Climate discussions the Arctic is not doing great.

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That would be a perfect storm of -AO and El Nino on the border of weak/mdt. I'm afraid the AO will be mainly positive this winter, especially late when El Nino would normally have a better chance of creating cold. Result is only seasonable temps, not cold. Don't let your heart be troubled though. Winter will almost certainly be better than last year - I know a low bar. Split El Nino flow is a plus for the Southeast, even if mild most of the time.

(1) I'm curious as to your reasoning for this. Please expound...

(2) Agreed.

Sure. There has been debate about whether winter AO matches the previous summer. A look at the monthly data shows very low correlation. What the monthly data does show is streaks - 6 to 9 months at a time. If the AO flips in early summer, it can be the same for much of summer into the next winter. If the AO flips in spring, then flips again in fall, no match. I prefer looking at the streaks. Worked great last year. We bears (3-4 of us) called the mild winter in the face of brutal criticism.

This year the AO started to average positive in late spring. A brief pull-back as I type is helping ease the heat, but I forecast the +AO streak to continue (mean) into early winter. Now it could be close. The +flip was late spring. If we get a -flip middle to late winter then it could end colder. I'm actually starting to lean that way. Skiers wishcast? But my main point is I strongly favor forecasting the streak of the AO over the summer/winter deal.

Also El Nino is setting up east-based early which is not necessarily cold for the Southeast - wet but sometimes warm. The textbook cold is associated with west-based or Modoki which it may evolve to in this -PDO environment. We'll see how all the signals combine.

Cheers! :ski:

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Sure. There has been debate about whether winter AO matches the previous summer. A look at the monthly data shows very low correlation. What the monthly data does show is streaks - 6 to 9 months at a time. If the AO flips in early summer, it can be the same for much of summer into the next winter. If the AO flips in spring, then flips again in fall, no match. I prefer looking at the streaks. Worked great last year. We bears (3-4 of us) called the mild winter in the face of brutal criticism.

This year the AO started to average positive in late spring. A brief pull-back as I type is helping ease the heat, but I forecast the +AO streak to continue (mean) into early winter. Now it could be close. The +flip was late spring. If we get a -flip middle to late winter then it could end colder. I'm actually starting to lean that way. Skiers wishcast? But my main point is I strongly favor forecasting the streak of the AO over the summer/winter deal.

Also El Nino is setting up east-based early which is not necessarily cold for the Southeast - wet but sometimes warm. The textbook cold is associated with west-based or Modoki which it may evolve to in this -PDO environment. We'll see how all the signals combine.

Cheers! :ski:

Thank you for the explanation. I can certainly see your perspective, and I do believe there to be merit to your thinking.

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Well, if this winter is anything like the rest of our seasons lately, it'll be either really cold and a lot of snow, or really warm and no snow. It seems the weather lately is one of extremes, either one way or the other.

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Also El Nino is setting up east-based early which is not necessarily cold for the Southeast - wet but sometimes warm. The textbook cold is associated with west-based or Modoki which it may evolve to in this -PDO environment. We'll see how all the signals combine.

Cheers! :ski:

I agree that west-based has been colder on average (since 1950), but two of the three coldest at KATL were weak, east based: 1976-7 (coldest on record) and 1969-70. If we do get the weak Nino and we get good blocking, our chance at a cold winter would be pretty decent even if east-based imho.

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I agree that west-based has been colder on average (since 1950), but two of the three coldest DJF's at KATL on record were east based weak El Nino's: 1976-7 (coldest on record) and 1969-70. If we do get the weak Nino and we get good blocking, our chance at a cold winter would be pretty decent even if east-based imho.

I should add here that the recent weekly Nino SST releases have been trending more in the direction of west based, especially when considering how much the easternmost regions (1 and 2) have cooled. Even 3 cooled slightly this week while 3.4 and 4 warmed. So, I'm not even convinced yet that the winter won't start as west-based or at least neutrally based.

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I agree that west-based has been colder on average (since 1950), but two of the three coldest at KATL were weak, east based: 1976-7 (coldest on record) and 1969-70. If we do get the weak Nino and we get good blocking, our chance at a cold winter would be pretty decent even if east-based imho.

True. I agree about the blocking. There has been 7 ( about to be 8) very distinct -NAO and blocking patterns in Greenland/North America this Spring and early June, and each one resulted in a storm track through TN Valley and NC/n GA and VA. I'm a big believer in how the blocking affects our Winters in the Southeast overall, so it's tough to forecast Winter without knowing how that variable will pan out. So far, I'm seeing it repeat over and over, the only exception is the bulk of last Winter--talk about bad luck on timing.

I haven't put all my thoughts together for Winter yet, but one thing I'm very positive of, is that if we get blocking in southern Greenland like we've done many times this Spring, then the TN valley and northern Gulf States to western Carolinas are in for the worst Winter in ages. It would probably surpass 2010 and 2011 overall, and some local spots be record setting in terms of number of snow events and cumulative snow totals. Again, I'm not forecasting that, but the blocking is a huge piece of the puzzle, and a couple years ago I put out my thoughts on the long term cycle of NAO. Now with -PDO shift, it certainly adds credence that the long term looks fascinating in the Southeast with regards to Winters.

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Finally a few thoughts about this winter(i thought thats what this thread was for!).. On another topic does anyone know what's the reason firsthandweather never posted the winter outlook yet which should have been released sunday?

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True. I agree about the blocking. There has been 7 ( about to be 8) very distinct -NAO and blocking patterns in Greenland/North America this Spring and early June, and each one resulted in a storm track through TN Valley and NC/n GA and VA. I'm a big believer in how the blocking affects our Winters in the Southeast overall, so it's tough to forecast Winter without knowing how that variable will pan out. So far, I'm seeing it repeat over and over, the only exception is the bulk of last Winter--talk about bad luck on timing.

I haven't put all my thoughts together for Winter yet, but one thing I'm very positive of, is that if we get blocking in southern Greenland like we've done many times this Spring, then the TN valley and northern Gulf States to western Carolinas are in for the worst Winter in ages. It would probably surpass 2010 and 2011 overall, and some local spots be record setting in terms of number of snow events and cumulative snow totals. Again, I'm not forecasting that, but the blocking is a huge piece of the puzzle, and a couple years ago I put out my thoughts on the long term cycle of NAO. Now with -PDO shift, it certainly adds credence that the long term looks fascinating in the Southeast with regards to Winters.

Wow! That was an exciting read. I know you're not making a forecast, but just hearing discussion concerning potentials is making me itch for that colder weather even more. I take great stock in what you have to say, and I truly respect the time, effort, thoughtfulness, knowledge, and courtesy with which you fill your posts. Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts.

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True. I agree about the blocking. There has been 7 ( about to be 8) very distinct -NAO and blocking patterns in Greenland/North America this Spring and early June, and each one resulted in a storm track through TN Valley and NC/n GA and VA. I'm a big believer in how the blocking affects our Winters in the Southeast overall, so it's tough to forecast Winter without knowing how that variable will pan out. So far, I'm seeing it repeat over and over, the only exception is the bulk of last Winter--talk about bad luck on timing.

I haven't put all my thoughts together for Winter yet, but one thing I'm very positive of, is that if we get blocking in southern Greenland like we've done many times this Spring, then the TN valley and northern Gulf States to western Carolinas are in for the worst Winter in ages. It would probably surpass 2010 and 2011 overall, and some local spots be record setting in terms of number of snow events and cumulative snow totals. Again, I'm not forecasting that, but the blocking is a huge piece of the puzzle, and a couple years ago I put out my thoughts on the long term cycle of NAO. Now with -PDO shift, it certainly adds credence that the long term looks fascinating in the Southeast with regards to Winters.

You'll be getting an additional subscriber soon. I'll be busy this winter with school and will not be up for the Euro runs like years past, so I'll need your posts to keep me informed. Looking forward to this winter and reading what you have to say!

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...Now with -PDO shift, it certainly adds credence that the long term looks fascinating in the Southeast with regards to Winters.

When the AMO comes around to -AMO in a few years, then the party will really start! I hope. You gotta like historical winters through decades witth both -PDO and -AMO on long-term (decadal) averages. Only about 1/3 of decades have the overlap, since the cyles are offset, but they were snowy. Cheers!

:ski:

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Kirk Mellish in Atlanta offered his early views on the up coming winter season..

http://www.wsbradio....winter-weather/

Kirk is a fantastic met. I've had a good feeling about this winter for a while now. This is just more reason to believe winter will be good. Something about this winter just seems like it's going to be a very good 1 for much of the southeast. The more information we get about the upcoming patterns possible the more excited I get that this will be a good 1.

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I agree that west-based has been colder on average (since 1950), but two of the three coldest at KATL were weak, east based: 1976-7 (coldest on record) and 1969-70. If we do get the weak Nino and we get good blocking, our chance at a cold winter would be pretty decent even if east-based imho.

I just don't buy analogs from that time period until that type of cold shows up again in the south...it has been a long time since we have seen below zero in these parts. Perhaps a shift in AMO will facilitate that or perhaps there is a real shift in climate and we won't see that again (and I certainly do not want to start that argument in this forum!)

I think it is a little too early for a winter forecast until we can see how strong the Nino is going to be as well as the precip patterns going through early to mid fall...I am just glad summer ended somewhat early....otherwise, the summer forecast would have been a total bomb this year.... :bag:

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You'll be getting an additional subscriber soon. I'll be busy this winter with school and will not be up for the Euro runs like years past, so I'll need your posts to keep me informed. Looking forward to this winter and reading what you have to say!

Great plan. Oh, and see you on here at 1am, 2 days before the first real threat is forecast to arrive. :)

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Here is a question for some knowledgeable people. Do periods of a negative north atlantic oscillation in summer correlate to winter either way good or bad? One thing is for certain the pattern this summer is nothing like it was last summer leading into a terrible winter. That alone gives me hope.

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