The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread

[valkhorn]

Mine was a comment on life. Yours was simply an inappropriate comment.

Riiiiiiight. Peeing is life. It involves the same equipment.

[metalicwx366]

Oh goodness ^ LOL . Why was this thread created in the middle of last winter?

[Jon]

Oh goodness ^ LOL . Why was this thread created in the middle of last winter?

Because Jeremy is a troll during winter time, especially during such a terrible winter like last year, he cancelled winter before Christmas. Who knew this thread would survive the test of time to be bumped up.

[jburns]

Riiiiiiight. Peeing is life. It involves the same equipment.

OK Mr. Superficial.

[WidreMann]

Valkhorn is the Frank Grimes of the SE forum.

[BullCityWx]

Valkhorn is the Frank Grimes of the SE forum.

Should we start calling him grimey?

[nchighcountrywx]

The perils of the review of the NCEP CFS Version1 (CFSV10) Ensemble Forecasts for Winter.

On the average, more ensemble runs look to our favor for a good winter than the ones that do not look favorable, however, the swings can be large and dramatic from to day to day.

Some, such as the one attached are real shockers for a repeat of last winter:

[WilkesboroDude]

Henry Margusity Fan Club

The climate models suggest by November we are in a true El Nino pattern with storms coming in through California and the Southwest.

Like · · Share · 138 · 5 hours ago via HootSuite ·

[griteater]

Here's a link to an interpretation of the latest Euro seasonal forecast for Sept/Oct/Nov (1st map) and Nov/Dec/Jan (2nd map) - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/first-clues-to-the-upcoming-winter/67793

He states that "the model appears to favor a tendency toward a positive NAO late fall into early winter"....but the temperatures shown in eastern Canada on the Nov/Dec/Jan map would resemble a negative NAO look, not positive.

[nchighcountrywx]

CFS Update from 22JUL12

[Lookout]

omg, fall and winter can't get here soon enough. So sick of this heat. Unlike last year, where I thought the winter would really suck (and it did), I have better hopes for this year fwiw. I know that doesn't mean much though lol

[triadwx]

CFS Update from 22JUL12

I totally wish that would happen!

On a side note, I started to listen to Trans Siberian Orchestra again the other day, and it's really putting me in the cold and snowy mood.

[LithiaWx]

omg, fall and winter can't get here soon enough. So sick of this heat. Unlike last year, where I thought the winter would really suck (and it did), I have better hopes for this year fwiw. I know that doesn't mean much though lol

Me and you are on the same track. I did not like the idea of a good winter last year. I had a bad feeling about it and just seemed to know that winter would suck. This year for some reason brings me hope. I think we end up getting a good one. All we need is that NAO to set up shop and we are in business with a Weak-Nutural Positive El-Nino. That is as good as it gets for the KATL area historically, so my sights are high for this winter. I know a wx feeling is not worth much but hey it is what it is.

[WidreMann]

Glad to see the Cold Forecasting System is still doing its job.

After this hot and slightly dry summer, I think we're going to head into a monster of a warm and lame winter. We rarely have good winters after hot summers, certainly not when the solar activity is moving upward, and the El Nino is east-based. But who knows, maybe we'll get a real cold front followed by a real high pressure system and a real low pressure system from the south, and we might get from that a few hours of wet snow before it changes to rain.

[jburns]

Glad to see the Cold Forecasting System is still doing its job.

After this hot and slightly dry summer, I think we're going to head into a monster of a warm and lame winter. We rarely have good winters after hot summers, certainly not when the solar activity is moving upward, and the El Nino is east-based. But who knows, maybe we'll get a real cold front followed by a real high pressure system and a real low pressure system from the south, and we might get from that a few hours of wet snow before it changes to rain.

Ah. The universe is back in synch.

[mackerel_sky]

I miss this!! Can't wait to see it all winter long.I think we have a good chance of atleast a few good ice events this winter.

Glad to see the Cold Forecasting System is still doing its job.

After this hot and slightly dry summer, I think we're going to head into a monster of a warm and lame winter. We rarely have good winters after hot summers, certainly not when the solar activity is moving upward, and the El Nino is east-based. But who knows, maybe we'll get a real cold front followed by a real high pressure system and a real low pressure system from the south, and we might get from that a few hours of wet snow before it changes to rain.

[SoCoWx]

Glad to see the Cold Forecasting System is still doing its job.

After this hot and slightly dry summer, I think we're going to head into a monster of a warm and lame winter. We rarely have good winters after hot summers, certainly not when the solar activity is moving upward, and the El Nino is east-based. But who knows, maybe we'll get a real cold front followed by a real high pressure system and a real low pressure system from the south, and we might get from that a few hours of wet snow before it changes to rain.

U TROLLIN?

In all fairness though, it's July. As El Nino's grow, they naturally focus further west. Also, there is little if any correlation to a Summers temperatures and the temperatures and snowfall of the following winter.

But don't fret. You'll have plenty of time to play the part of johnny raincloud down the road.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

U TROLLIN?

In all fairness though, it's July. As El Nino's grow, they naturally focus further west. Also, there is little if any correlation to a Summers temperatures and the temperatures and snowfall of the following winter.

But don't fret. You'll have plenty of time to play the part of johnny raincloud down the road.

We had a brutally hot summer in 2010 followed by a very cold winter. We had a brutally hot summer in 2011 followed by a very warm winter. So yeah, based on that I would say there is no correlation between summer temps and winter temps. It seems like we are definitely due for a pattern switch to below normal temps. It seems like since February 2011 we have had almost nonstop above average temps.

[WilkesboroDude]

Glad to see the Cold Forecasting System is still doing its job.

After this hot and slightly dry summer, I think we're going to head into a monster of a warm and lame winter. We rarely have good winters after hot summers, certainly not when the solar activity is moving upward, and the El Nino is east-based. But who knows, maybe we'll get a real cold front followed by a real high pressure system and a real low pressure system from the south, and we might get from that a few hours of wet snow before it changes to rain.

[Busick]

WidreMann, on 23 July 2012 - 10:29 PM, said:

Glad to see the Cold Forecasting System is still doing its job.

After this hot and slightly dry summer, I think we're going to head into a monster of a warm and lame winter. We rarely have good winters after hot summers, certainly not when the solar activity is moving upward, and the El Nino is east-based. But who knows, maybe we'll get a real cold front followed by a real high pressure system and a real low pressure system from the south, and we might get from that a few hours of wet snow before it changes to rain.

More Debbie downer.... This guy just gets on my last nerve

[Brick Tamland]

Well, if this winter is anything like the rest of the weather the last few years, we're going to have tons of snow, or none at all. It seems that is the way the weather seems lately, either one extreme or the other.

[SN_Lover]

Remember when WidreMann hypothesized that we would get a warm winter last year and most of yall criticized him? Was he right? Yes. So I would not be so quick to criticize him this go-around.

Regarding precipitation. Here is a neat statistic that was brought up in a other thread.(quote below)

A quick drought-related thought...

June 2012 ranked as the 10th driest June on record for the contiguous U.S. Since 1895, 20/30 (67%) of such cases also saw the summer rank as among the 30 driest. To date, summer 2012 appears on course for such an outcome.

An exceptionally dry summer often heralds a dry winter. Among the 30 driest summers on record, 20 (67%) were followed by among the 50 driest winters. 11 (55%) of those dry winters were followed by a dry fall (50 driest on record), while 9 (45%) were followed by a wet fall (50 wettest on record).

For the first 6 months, 2012 was the 16th driest year on record. The last time the U.S. had less precipitation in the first half of the year was 2002 (11th driest). Whether or not the U.S. has moved into a regime that will feature generally dry years remains to be seen.

[SoCoWx]

Remember when WidreMann hypothesized that we would get a warm winter last year and most of yall criticized him? Was he right? Yes. So I would not be so quick to criticize him this go-around.

Regarding precipitation. Here is a neat statistic that was brought up in a other thread.(quote below)

Pardon my interjection, but I believe the point is that he never bothers to post here unless it's to be a raging pessimist and bring the whole thread down. I think that's the point people are trying to make. He is, in essence, a troll.

[metalicwx366]

Pardon my interjection, but I believe the point is that he never bothers to post here unless it's to be a raging pessimist and bring the whole thread down. I think that's the point people are trying to make. He is, in essence, a troll.

lol

[SN_Lover]

Pardon my interjection, but I believe the point is that he never bothers to post here unless it's to be a raging pessimist and bring the whole thread down. I think that's the point people are trying to make. He is, in essence, a troll.

Sorry science does not run on ones wishcasting.

[jburns]

Pardon my interjection, but I believe the point is that he never bothers to post here unless it's to be a raging pessimist and bring the whole thread down. I think that's the point people are trying to make. He is, in essence, a troll.

If it wasn't for trolls, all the living space under bridges would be wasted.

[Isopycnic]

Pardon my interjection, but I believe the point is that he never bothers to post here unless it's to be a raging pessimist and bring the whole thread down. I think that's the point people are trying to make. He is, in essence, a troll.

Joel may be a troll/pessimist but he is correct more often than not.

[Brick Tamland]

Remember when WidreMann hypothesized that we would get a warm winter last year and most of yall criticized him? Was he right? Yes. So I would not be so quick to criticize him this go-around.

Regarding precipitation. Here is a neat statistic that was brought up in a other thread.(quote below)

i think this summer has been one of the wettest in recent memories in my neck of the woods. My grass is actually green at the end of July.

[triadwx]

i think this summer has been one of the wettest in recent memories in my neck of the woods. My grass is actually green at the end of July.

Yes, same here. Our grass looks like we put out fertilizer on it, but we didn't put down any, yet I have had to mow every week since the first week in March. Hopefully it cools down enough that I only have to mow another 2 and a half months or show.

2 acres every week sucks.

[DaculaWeather]

4.88" here so far this month. Better than I was expecting anyway.