NavarreDon Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 JoMo or anyone in Joplin....can you confirm this KJLN obs fron last night? 20 Feb 11:21 pm CST 32 18 55 22 E 15G84 10.00 OVC034 30.10 29.058 T Caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 JoMo or anyone in Joplin....can you confirm this KJLN obs fron last night? 20 Feb 11:21 pm CST 32 18 55 22 E 15G84 10.00 OVC034 30.10 29.058 T Caution Yeah, that didn't happen. Our ASOS screws up from time to time for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well picked up a coating of zr on everything then about 3 or a lil more inches of sleet! Seen tons of lightning and heard tons of thunder!!!! I never seen so much sleet in my life, springfield and the nws thinks there might be some snow up this way later this afternoon and tonight on the tail end of this thing....up to 2" possible. Would be nice to see beings Im at about 1.4" of snow still for the season lol. How did things pan out for yall in south missouri and northern arkansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Tons of sleet here and some freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Not too much of anything here, although enough ice to make the roads a mess. The lightning was pretty cool and a few brief ZR downpours were too. I think Waterboy and I have somehow managed to end up with least amounts on every opportunity this season. These things tend to even out, but it is odd when FSM and even LZK repeatedly get snow and we don't, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 regardless of what you got that picture is beautiful ozarkwx!!!!!! Looks awesome and peaceful right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Man this freezing drizzle is causing havok on the on ramp here onto highway 13 by our home. Watched 3 cars lose it now, and 2 people got stuck in the middle of our road coming around the bend and up the hill.....everyone be careful out there tonight!!! And now its snowing, crazy crazy weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So, Sunday-Monday system is looking a bit more interesting, especially for those in central Kansas up the KC right now, but the trend has been farther south. The 12z GFS is finally catching up with the system (it had been the farthest north) The Euro is probably the farthest south. Keep hoping for a southerly trend like this last system! Couple of good thumps on the 12z GFS Ensemble: Edit: 12z NOGAPS/FIM are delivering great hits to the area. Edit 2: The 12z FIM is actually a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lock it in! I would like some nice snow. This ice is the pits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lock it in! I would like some nice snow. This ice is the pits! 12-14" of wet snow here on the 18z NAM in the 'long range'... what could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Um...so what's the odds this could go further south? Tulsa is right on the line again, and I don't want to get that mixed bag of crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Just lol @ the NAM. Its precipitation shield from last night's 00z barely even overlaps today's 18z. H5 low track has jumped south by an average of ~75 miles per run. So yeah, I'd say the odds it could go further south are considerable, particularly since the current snowpack is being greatly underestimated by most models. Even as-is, the 18z run would be close to nailing TUL. I'm sure Norman will find a way to blow this regardless, but at least we should have plenty more entertainment and drama over the next 48 hours, as if this month hasn't provided enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 hmmmm...maybe this could dig a little further south....keep it coming:) Special Wx Statement from Norman......WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.RAIN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST AND WESTERNOKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ONMONDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ANDMONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDSWILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCEVISIBILITIES AND CREATE TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITSHEAVIEST SNOW. FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN.And the AFD...AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK253 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013.DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND COLDERTEMPERATURES TO THE REGION HAS SINCE MOVED INTO THENORTHEAST...LEAVING US WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONSAND CLEAR SKIES. WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK OVER NORTHWESTOKLAHOMA...MAX TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.THIS WILL ALSO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS...AND EXPECT AT LEAST ONE ORTWO SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BEAIDED BY A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CALMWINDS AND OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THESE POINTS INMIND...HAVE GONE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSSCENTRAL OKLAHOMA.A WEAK WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TOMORROW...DESPITE WIDESPREADMID/UPPER CLOUDS...LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANYPRECIPITATION FROM FALLING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIMEHEATING...AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLEX HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAYTIME FRAME. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TX/OKPANHANDLES WILL RESUME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...BRINGING MODESTMOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAYNIGHT...A COMPACT BUT POTENT CUTOFF LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THISSAME AREA...SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGHTHE DAY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THISSYSTEM...OUR AREA IS IN FOR MULTIPLE FACETS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER.THE PRIMARY CONCERN ATTM IS WINTER WEATHER...WITH POSSIBLEMODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERNOKLAHOMA. GIVEN MODEST YET SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN...AT LEASTAN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST AS WIND FIELDS WILL BEHIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOTBE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED SUNDAYAFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ASUNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PROMOTE FALLING HUMIDITIES ANDWINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THISSYSTEM...THOUGH MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON ADEEPER...SLOWER...AND MORE SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK THROUGH MONDAYEVENING. EXACT ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIP REMAIN UNKNOWN...BUTCONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CERTAIN LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSSNORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WILL SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5INCHES OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 For Central Kansas atleast, the NAM did well with the last storm. From the outset, it locked on to the southern solution and higher-end QPF. It still struggled from the same temperature sensitivities as the other models. It looks like the temperature profile may not be a problem while precip is falling (up here atleast) this go around...though the 18z NAM was a tad warm Sunday during the day in the snowpack area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wichita AFD: SUN NGT-MON NGT:THE SITUATION IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY OMINOUS. A DEEPENING MID-UPR DECKTROF WILL EXPERIENCE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT DIGS SE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIESTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/WRN KS REGION. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESISWOULD ENSUE OVER THE WRN/SWRN PLAINS. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMINGINCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS WHILE IT MOVES E OVEROK VERY MOIST WRAP-AROUND/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE GREATLY. WITHTIME A TROWAL WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN KS SUN NGT. THE TROWAL WILL SHARPENCONSIDERABLY MON MORNING OVER CNTRL & SC KS. AS THE MID-UPR CYCLONE DIGSOVER THE TX PANHANDLE UPR-DECK DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE. THE RESULT: AWINTER STORM IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS FOR SUNDAY NGT& MON. THE CYCLONE WILL WIND UP LIKE AN ALARM CLOCK AS IT VENTURES EALONG/NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER ON MON. THIS WOULD INDUCE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TOBACK TO A NLY COMPONENT & INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. A BLIZZARD WATCH MAY BEISSUED FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR MON. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEENTHE GFS & ECMWF...BUT THOSE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING. SNOWFALLS OF 5-7INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS BY MON EVE & WITH N/NW WINDS OF20-30 MPH BLOWING & DRIFTING WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT. HAVE CHECKED SWINGON ISSUING ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSORS TO STUDYMODEL TRENDS. THESE PERIODS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY! PLEASE STAY TUNED. And Tulsa: THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS THESLOWER...STRONGER...MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WITH THE NEXT STORMSYSTEM THAT THE ECMWF...UKMET AND GEM HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ONSINCE YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTSA CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDEDTHUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY.THE ECMWF TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WINTERWEATHER HOWEVER THERE ARE CAVEATS WHICH THREATEN TO MAKE THISBASICALLY A NON-EVENT AS FAR AS WINTER WEATHER GOES IN OURFORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES SO WRAPPED UP THAT WARM AIRWRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY LATEMONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING DELAYING ANY POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER TOSNOW UNTIL WE ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATIONIS WINDING DOWN. THUS WILL ONLY FORECAST RAIN OR SNOW FOR NOWMONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. ALL OF THIS ISSUBJECT TO CHANGE OF COURSE. THE BEST ANALOG TO THIS SYSTEMAPPEARS TO BE THE MAJOR WINTER STORM OF LATE NOVEMBER 1992. INTHAT CASE...THE MODEL FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH WAS SIMILAR TOTHIS ONE...BUT THE ACTUAL TRACK ENDED UP A BIT FURTHER NORTH (ALA12Z UKMET RUN TODAY) AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW FELL IN OUR FORECASTAREA DUE TO WARM LOW LEVEL AIR BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH SIDEOF THE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 good gosh it sounds like this one may be worse for the Joplin mo area maybe ???? early thoughts???? anyone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Springfield thinks maybe a rain over to snow scenario with just an inch at best over northern areas. Of course night time right now is key in my eyes, the sun angle works hard against us during the day. I know one thing my entire yard is just one solid 3" mass of ice!!!! I can barely walk out there without falling on my A^& lol, and im clumsy haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 354 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEM (MAJOR!): POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM INCREASINGFROM SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.SUN NGT-MON NGT:THE SITUATION IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY OMINOUS. WITHTIME A TROWAL WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN KS SUN NGT. THE TROWAL WILL SHARPENCONSIDERABLY MON MORNING OVER CNTRL & SC KS. AS THE MID-UPR CYCLONE DIGSOVER THE TX PANHANDLE UPR-DECK DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE. THE RESULT: AWINTER STORM IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS FOR SUNDAY NGT& MON. THE CYCLONE WILL WIND UP LIKE AN ALARM CLOCK AS IT VENTURES EALONG/NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER ON MON. THIS WOULD INDUCE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TOBACK TO A NLY COMPONENT & INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. A BLIZZARD WATCH MAY BEISSUED FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR MON. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEENTHE GFS & ECMWF...BUT THOSE DIFFERENCES ARE NARROWING. SNOWFALLS OF 5-7INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS BY MON EVE & WITH N/NW WINDS OF20-30 MPH BLOWING & DRIFTING WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 00z NAM moved back northwest. The snow track looks pretty similar to the storm that just happened. W OK across central KS up towards KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 00z NAM moved back northwest. The snow track looks pretty similar to the storm that just happened. W OK across central KS up towards KC. Do you really believe anything that model says? lol. How did it handle the last one that just passed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This from the Norman Forecast Office: ...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILLAFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOWACROSS NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER CENTRALSECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY.ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE OVER A FOOTOF SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWINGAND DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CREATETREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND ITSHEAVIEST SNOW. FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I for one am very skeptical about this next round bringing much winter this far south. Unless the snowpack to the north has a southerly influence on this low pressure no chance here IMO. And yes the NAM is junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Do you really believe anything that model says? lol. How did it handle the last one that just passed? Handled it well for this area. I do not know about other area's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 i think im in love LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Do you really believe anything that model says? lol. How did it handle the last one that just passed? I don't really trust the NAM that much at all. It does show a storm in the vicinity though which is always a good thing. Looks like a 00z GFS finally caught on to the snowpack across Kansas as it has drastically lowered temps in that area. I'm actually waiting on the Euro to see what it shows since it has been very consistent over the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I for one am very skeptical about this next round bringing much winter this far south. Unless the snowpack to the north has a southerly influence on this low pressure no chance here IMO. And yes the NAM is junk. I'm kind of in agreement with you. The 00z GFS is playing catch up but it's pinpointing the same area as the 00z NAM basically as being the area with snow. It's wrapping up hard, and too far west for us but it's wrapping up so much there might be some impressive wraparound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Not our year in SW MO man. Many areas to our south get bombed this winter and now all areas to our north as the winter draws to a close. Maybe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Not our year in SW MO man. Many areas to our south get bombed this winter and now all areas to our north as the winter draws to a close. Maybe next year. Seems like this is all we say anymore lol, maybe next year. Next year Ill most likely be living in fayetteville and the storms will be hitting north haha, oh well it is what it is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 FWIW, the 23/00z GGEM annihilates all of us near the I-44 corridor. Sfc low Texarkana to Jonesboro. Big outlier for now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Now if the Euro heads the direction of the GGEM my interest is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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