Ozarkwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No support from the Euro and the snow vanishes on the 06z GFS. What a winter.. Sure seems like it is time to let go of the pipe dream of a good storm. That might actually help us get one, lol. Sort of like when you can't sleep and finally give up, and then fall asleep right after that. In any case, you can enjoy vicariously the action in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 In any case, you can enjoy vicariously the action in the NE. No I can't. It makes me jealous, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 OK fellow weather buddies time to move on and wait for next winter. Hopefully we won't have back to back to back stinkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 OK fellow weather buddies time to move on and wait for next winter. Hopefully we won't have back to back to back stinkers. yeah it was apparent in Oct-Nov, the "Heady" or LRC pattern wasn't going to work out for us. I'm still holding out hope for a big late Feb or early March storm but this winter has been pretty awful from a snowfall perspective. The big thing that makes ya mad though is the models were showing storms this year in the long range, they just never materialized when we got to the short range due to the split flow screwing things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Time for spring Im done with this craptastic of a winter! On a side note looking forward to watching this east coast monster storm unfold, hopefully my sister takes some pics! Times like these it makes me want to move back home cause I get too jelous lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It appears Mother Nature is making us pay for our Blockbuster Winter of 2011. The GFS/Euro keeps pushing all the storms south of our area...WHY??? I am just hoping for a good 2-4 inches here, but I really need to stop holding my breath. All I have seen here in Tulsa is a few flakes....terrible! If only would could get half of what the NE is getting!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 What looked like a favorable long range pattern for the middle of the country a few days ago has now become storm after storm for the eastern and SE US. When it's not your year I guess its just not your year. That's all we can say at this point. I dont care about MJO phase, SOI crash, etc, etc. The cards may appear to be lining up and in our favor but when the rubber hits the road it still comes down to the atmosphere doing its thing and its thing is not for us this year. I've lived in MO for most of 15 yrs now and I dont recall having a winter where we didnt at some point see at least a couple of inches of snow on the ground for a couple of days, until this year. Two duds in a row. OK I'm done rambling. See you all for severe storm season - if there is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Watching the east coast get pounded with a ton of snow, then looking at the 00z GFS and seeing another storm hitting that area in 5 days, followed by more chances of storms....... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 What looked like a favorable long range pattern for the middle of the country a few days ago has now become storm after storm for the eastern and SE US. When it's not your year I guess its just not your year. That's all we can say at this point. I dont care about MJO phase, SOI crash, etc, etc. The cards may appear to be lining up and in our favor but when the rubber hits the road it still comes down to the atmosphere doing its thing and its thing is not for us this year. I've lived in MO for most of 15 yrs now and I dont recall having a winter where we didnt at some point see at least a couple of inches of snow on the ground for a couple of days, until this year. Two duds in a row. OK I'm done rambling. See you all for severe storm season - if there is one. haha, we posted at the same time. This must be the eastern trough portion of the LRC/Heady pattern. It should switch back the western trough just in time for severe weather season probably which worries me. Still thinking we may get at least 1 good storm between now and the middle of next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I hope you are right JoMo I'm running out of optimism this year. And now the 6z GFS brings the snow back over our region next week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Watching the east coast get pounded with a ton of snow, then looking at the 00z GFS and seeing another storm hitting that area in 5 days, followed by more chances of storms....... wow. Man it reminds me of way back in my childhood growing up in south jersey. I remember getting a foot of snow a week or it snowing all the time! Thank goodness for great memories when we have winters this crappy and boring ya know lol. I think it was 2 winters ago they were also getting nailed week after week. Been some crazy winters back home lately! Oh and my mom said they got missed by this one for the most part, pretty bad coastal flooding and rain...she said it switched over to snow last night but it was light for the most part, they got a few inches thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I hope you are right JoMo I'm running out of optimism this year. And now the 6z GFS brings the snow back over our region next week lol. And it's pretty much gone..... We were due to have a couple of quiet years I guess. 2002-2003 was very snowy and probably the best winter in a long time. (+1) 2003-2004 started off good with some early December snowstorms but finished up with not much happening. (push) 2004-2005 looks like it was a dud. (-1) 2005-2006 looks like a dud as well. (-1) 2006-2007 was snow and ice stormy.(+1) 2007-2008 was very icy. (+1) 2008-2009 wasn't that good either (-1) 2009-2010 was pretty snowy here, not so much there (+1) 2010-2011 was pretty snowy as well including the blizzard (+1) 2011-2012 was pretty bad. (-1) 2012-2013 is pretty bad so far. So +5 'good winters' And -4 'bad winters' That doesn't count 2012-2013 which probably should be 'bad' unless we get like a 24" snowstorm in March or something so it pretty much evens out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The GFS and GGEM this morning still look decent for Tuesday-Wednesday along a WSW-ENE swath that may include some of us. NAM and ECMWF not so much. Will be very sensitive to when and if a closed low can develop as that leftover energy kicks out. Have to err on the side of "fail" for now given the drought and seasonal pattern so far. For recent winters here, 09-10 is really the only one I'd consider great from a snow perspective. Then 10-11 had a couple events during that cold period, but OUN got shafted a bit both times. Feb 2011 was the last snowfall of 2" here. Before the Christmas 2009 Blizzard, I want to say the last time we'd seen 3" was Nov 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 10/00z NAM turns up the teasing a notch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Big move N on the NAM tonite. Hopefully it's not just a teaser. If Euro makes more move N tonite we may be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 But, it's the NAM...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 00z GFS has warmer temps but it may mix with snow, especially in some of the higher elevations of NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think this is defin a watcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 There is no artic air pressing behind this storm currently moving over the plains so the suppression could be overdone on the models, hence the move N today. Ridging could be stronger as well over the SE US which would imply a NW shift. Of course we could deal with boundary layer temp issues as per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yeah the problem will be with temps, as they will be close. If we get a stronger storm though, it could sort those issues out and we may get some snow. GGEM will be out soon, then the Euro to say "no" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yes all eyes on the Euro now. If it closes the door at this range then we're probably out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 B & W charts of the GGEM not that impressive. Maybe a tad N of its 12z run but not much precip this far north. Maybe .10 from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z NAM looks great. Bad news is it's still the NAM. 0z Euro just kinda bleh so still not too excited about this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Still holding out hope the Euro and GFS both shift N closer to NAM as we approach Tue PM. Call me an optimist but I think they will. If most of the system comes thru at night we have a better chance of accum snows, since boundary temps are gonna be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Channel 40/29 in Fayetteville has spent the first 4 stories on impending snow. They're talking about preparations for snow already. That's crazy. I still don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well, the NW trend is not letting up at this point, so I think the window is closing for most of us. May still have a shot for some of you in SW MO to pick up several inches, but this is looking like primarily a Panhandles/NW OK/S KS event. They desperately need the moisture, so hopefully the aggressive NAM QPF verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Norman still looks good to pick up at least a couple of inches, IMO. Probably a better chance there due to some colder temps. We may be in trouble here due to temps, even if the wetter NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 00 GFS a little colder and north here in bartlesville ,3 to 4 inches of course if the forecast dont change that will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 0z GFS looks a bit wetter at first glance. Looking closer to NAM. Amarillo to Atlantic City axis of heaviest snow - mark it down baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GGEM looking similar to GFS with timing, strength, precip. General 2-3 in snowfall across NE OK, far NW AR and SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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