Wx 24/7 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Hey all... looks like the clouds stayed around a lot longer than forecasted. It helped keep temps in check. I only made it to 44º today instead of the upper 40's. Oh, and MoWeatherGuy... I have your son in class! How cool is that?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Hey all... looks like the clouds stayed around a lot longer than forecasted. It helped keep temps in check. I only made it to 44º today instead of the upper 40's. Oh, and MoWeatherGuy... I have your son in class! How cool is that?! Yeah 24/7 he told me he spoke with you yesterday about how you and his dad (me!) have a common interest and love for the weather. Small world eh?! I think that's awesome. You let me know if he gets out of line lol. I had to laugh when he said you made mention of the one time you may use your phone during class would be during a severe weather outbreak checking on radar. I told him you were a storm spotter for KSPR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 That is funny (and cool). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Unbelievable, the same area of AR that got the snow last time is cashing in again on the 00z GFS tonight. It looks very cold long range.. details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Unbelievable, the same area of AR that got the snow last time is cashing in again on the 00z GFS tonight. It looks very cold long range.. details TBD.One good thing I see next week is a pretty good shot at rainfall around midweek. Beyond that is anybody's guess. 0z Euro and Canadian have nothing like the GFS in the 7-10 day range. The 6z GFS brings the snow further north into our area in the 180-216 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The 18z GFS sure was cold. Looks like we have some big stratospheric warming going on that should unleash the Arctic cold if it decides to come down on this side of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 And the 00z GFS is back to snowfall for NE OK/SW MO/NW AR primarily... in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Just hope we can keep the rain chances in the forecast for Wed PM and Thursday AM. We really need moisture of any kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 And the 00z GFS is back to snowfall for NE OK/SW MO/NW AR primarily... in a week or so. And gone again on the 12z lol. I know we are projected to get colder in the long range but it sure looks like a dry and cold pattern at this point. Not really excited about our propects the next couple of weeks. Hope I'm wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 And gone again on the 12z lol. I know we are projected to get colder in the long range but it sure looks like a dry and cold pattern at this point. Not really excited about our propects the next couple of weeks. Hope I'm wrong! And we're back on the 18z.... A bit farther north this time. It's going to be a pain for the models to sort all that energy dropping into the west out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 And we're back on the 18z.... A bit farther north this time. It's going to be a pain for the models to sort all that energy dropping into the west out. Beat me to it! Looks like a 3-6 in. snowfall up the 44 corridor from NE OK thru SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Setup for Saturday has me a bit worried. We should have a pretty wide open Gulf for a couple of days. Friday should be quite balmy. If models are ejecting the system too fast on Saturday as they seem to do this far out, then we may have some severe issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 And we're back on the 18z.... A bit farther north this time. It's going to be a pain for the models to sort all that energy dropping into the west out.Wow.. and gone again on the 0z. Models really struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Wow.. and gone again on the 0z. Models really struggling. Still sort of there, mostly across Arkansas and SE MO. It depends on what happens with that southern piece of energy lifting out. There's a lot of stuff in the west to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 for the longest times all models had us getting a good .35+ , now, both nam and gfs, and to extent, euro, have really backed off the precip. looking at .15-.25 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 for the longest times all models had us getting a good .35+ , now, both nam and gfs, and to extent, euro, have really backed off the precip. looking at .15-.25 now It really is amazing that, no matter what modeling suggests in the days prior to a storm, dry still begats dry. For this reason I look for a really quiet winter around here. Really sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 It really is amazing that, no matter what modeling suggests in the days prior to a storm, dry still begats dry. For this reason I look for a really quiet winter around here. Really sucks. Yea the way we are going it could be less snow than last season, which was utter crap. I think I got 3.5" last season lol. So far about an inch at best this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 We are going to have a return to cold. The stratosphere and past blocking episodes are signaling that. Both the Euro and GFS are signaling -EPO and -AO which is a cold look.The issue is if we will have any storms or moisture. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Already a couple chances for frozen on the 00z GFS. One around Saturday Night and again on Sunday Night and Monday. The Monday event looks bigger. Probably a bigger chance of freezing rain/sleet during these events.Best chance of snow looks to be NW of I-44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 00z NAM looks icy on Saturday Night into Sunday with a stripe of snow on the backside.* *However, it is the NAM and your standard disclaimer about how terrible it is applies. 00z GFS also has ice/snow Saturday Night, not as much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Apparently the HPC is thinking ice as well for Saturday night - Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Lets lock it in. Need some excitement around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I have been watching the models for anything decent around here, and low and behold the 12Z Euro shows a major winter storm...oh wait for it...across the Red River Valley again!!! Grrrr....why are all these storms going due east and south of us instead of NE?? This is not a normal pattern for us. We barely got any moisture from this previous event, and I'm about to waive the white flag. If Dallas gets snow again and Chicago doesn't ....there is something majorly wrong!!! When will the torture end...sorry for the rant! I've been holding it in for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Sharp cutoff on the 12z Euro on precip across the area Sat PM into Sun AM. JLN showing .08 total precip with 850 and surface temps below frz. TUL showing .01. FAY showing .62 but temps are above frz. SGF showing .45 with .35 of that at temps below frz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Sharp cutoff on the 12z Euro on precip across the area Sat PM into Sun AM. JLN showing .08 total precip with 850 and surface temps below frz. TUL showing .01. FAY showing .62 but temps are above frz. SGF showing .45 with .35 of that at temps below frz. Yea doug doesnt think this will be anything major at all. Just so very dissapointing, even with this current storm system I hardly got any rain....just a few light rain showers here and there so far and we need some rain badly. The stream behind the house here is usually roaring and way up at this time of year but its just bone dry from the hot dry summer. Something has got to give eventually, just turning into another boring winter season. Even back home on the east coast my mother said the temps are all whacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Did anyone else read the NWS discussions from Tulsa and Springfield today? They seemed extremely contradictory to me. Tulsa stated "SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A LESSER ISSUE TO THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE IN HIGH ADVISORY CRITERIA." Springfield doesn't think it's going to be much of an event to be too worried about even for far SW MO. They said: SINCE THIS IS NOT A TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT IS SHALLOW IN NATURE...I`M NOT BULLISH ON AN ICE STORM. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT EXPERIENCES A MIXTURE OF SLEET...SNOW...AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL EXPERIENCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE LONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN WITH IMPACTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Honestly... I sometimes wonder what is going on with Springfield. They seem really out there and yank their forecasting thoughts back and forth, while Tulsa seems pretty steady as she goes. While I am certainly not saying Tulsa will be right and Springfield will be wrong... that seems to be the case more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 00z GFS Still looks like a mix on Sat Night and Sun morn. Also extremely cold in the extended once again. The strat warming is going to cause a lot of flip flopping probably but it should be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Looks like models are converging on a minor winter event for much of the I 44 corridor tomorrow nite, along with adjacent portions of NW AR. 0z Euro actually came in a bit wetter and further north. Has a storm total of .50 at JLN with over half of that when temps are below frz. SGF at .53 in a similar thermal profile. TUL at .40 but most of that occurs prior to subfreezing temps. FAY at .66 but with more rain/frz rain than any other precip type. So a mixed bag but a fairly potent little precip maker this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 12z GFS now churning out a snow max tomorrow nite of 3-6" from Joplin NE'ward into C MO. NAM not nearly as aggressive with snow amounts. Euro totals in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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