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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Is it that time of year already? Wow. I sure hope it was better then last winter.

It's official, winter is coming, Spot has come back from hibernation!

Speaking of hibernation, I just saw a really fat squirrel. That's good, right?

Edit: I keep on looking at the GFS and going "well, the Euro has to look better" and then looking at the Euro and being double disappointed.

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It's official, winter is coming, Spot has come back from hibernation!

Speaking of hibernation, I just saw a really fat squirrel. That's good, right?

Edit: I keep on looking at the GFS and going "well, the Euro has to look better" and then looking at the Euro and being double disappointed.

Yea its the norm.. I think we are used that.... or we should be. lol

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I think I'm addicted to model watching, or it's an OCD thing or something. The anticipation that the "next" model run will show a complete change or a big snowstorm is somewhat like the feeling of excitement I got on Christmas morning as a kid. Lately though, It's felt like opening up socks and underwear.

Some good news though, it appears the polar vortex wants to split and that split has been moving up in time. The split will give a greater chance for a -AO in the coming weeks which will deliver more cold air if we can get the Pacific to cooperate. (no low pressure sitting offshore pumping the ridge up)

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I think I'm addicted to model watching, or it's an OCD thing or something. The anticipation that the "next" model run will show a complete change or a big snowstorm is somewhat like the feeling of excitement I got on Christmas morning as a kid. Lately though, It's felt like opening up socks and underwear.

Some good news though, it appears the polar vortex wants to split and that split has been moving up in time. The split will give a greater chance for a -AO in the coming weeks which will deliver more cold air if we can get the Pacific to cooperate. (no low pressure sitting offshore pumping the ridge up)

Yea it really was my birthday on turkey day, thanks for the happy birthday! And yep your ocd, isn't this the norm for you to do every season lol?

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Yea it really was my birthday on turkey day, thanks for the happy birthday! And yep your ocd, isn't this the norm for you to do every season lol?

yes, it usually starts mid-October and doesn't end until late March. I rarely look at the models from April to September unless severe weather is expected.

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Another 12z GFS run, another awful looking 16 days thanks to the awful amount of storminess off the west coast. The -AO is pretty extreme this run, probably off the charts. The problem is the west coast storminess and the EPO goes positive, which usually leads to zonal flow and the storminess in the west.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zgfsindices.html

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Not too worried about the lack of a good set up yet, There is still a long way to go. Let the best set ups come when the colder part of winter is here rather than "waste" them when temps are marginal at best. Meanwhile, pretty great weekend weather for almost anything outside.

That's true but I always like to see at least some light snow before Christmas to put me in the holiday spirit.

The 00z GFS took a step in the right direction tonight in the long range as it looks like it pushes that GOA low farther west and builds a ridge out west which causes a trough to form over us around the 7th or 8th, which is good for cold. It ends up being a big storm east of here though on this model run.

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Hello Everyone! I usually don't post in here very much until there is a major winter storm or tornado threat coming near or around Tulsa, but I thought I would say hi and wish everyone a wonderful winter!! Nothing could be as a bad as last year, right? I heard Bastardi talking about 50% of country will have snow on the ground around Christmas time...hhmmm...not sure I believe him...but I have faith! Here's to snow above our knees and a White Christmassled.gifsanta.gif

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Hello Everyone! I usually don't post in here very much until there is a major winter storm or tornado threat coming near or around Tulsa, but I thought I would say hi and wish everyone a wonderful winter!! Nothing could be as a bad as last year, right? I heard Bastardi talking about 50% of country will have snow on the ground around Christmas time...hhmmm...not sure I believe him...but I have faith! Here's to snow above our knees and a White Christmassled.gifsanta.gif

Well, we'll see... he hasn't been very good lately.

There seems to be a growing consensus that after the 10th-15th, there will be a change and things will get colder as a ridge builds in the Pacific and that awful Gulf of Alaska and west coast trough goes away or is displaced. Both the 18z GFS and the 12z Euro Ensembles are showing this happening. I hope that does happen and I hope we get a favorable storm track to give us some snow.

The Euro Weeklies do sound pretty meh for here though... Not sure since I can't see them. They have to GOA trough in Week 3 and 4, eh.

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The always steady and never changing GFS....

12z

gfs_namer_324_500_vort_ht_s.gif

00z (tonight)

gfs_namer_312_500_vort_ht_s.gif

I like the trend if it keeps going like the 18z/00z GFS though. Position that trough a little farther south and east and that would be looking good for us. Too bad it's still so far out and will change sad.png

I hope this winter doesn't end up like the Chiefs season has.... At the start the season everyone was calling for them to be good... Move over Manning, Chiefs will win the AFC West, the headlines said. Then came preseason and the team looked bad.... Don't worry, it's just preseason, they said...... Then came the regular season and they lost badly.... Don't worry, they are just having a slow start, they said...... Well now they are 1-10. The worst team in the NFL. Now they say.. "They'll be better next season"

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12z GFS not looking horrible still at least long range. I like what I'm seeing if that pattern develops as has been starting to show up now. Could set us up well for December. And I feel your pain on the football team deal. Being a native Texan I'm a big Cowboys fan. Talk about hype and nothing come of it every year. That team has all kinds of expectations every year and then play worse than some college teams. So in some respects that's harder than being a Chiefs fan lol.

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12z GFS not looking horrible still at least long range. I like what I'm seeing if that pattern develops as has been starting to show up now. Could set us up well for December. And I feel your pain on the football team deal. Being a native Texan I'm a big Cowboys fan. Talk about hype and nothing come of it every year. That team has all kinds of expectations every year and then play worse than some college teams. So in some respects that's harder than being a Chiefs fan lol.

yeah it didn't look too bad, of course it's a different solution from the 00z run but it's been pretty consistently showing a trough developing, just not sure of the amplitude or location. The Euro weeklies had more of an east coast trough and west coast ridge which didn't look too hot for here and we'd probably have NW flow.

I've always been a Chiefs fan.... as back in elementary school, the Chiefs visited my school. I remember meeting Bill Maas (lineman) and Christian Okoye (running back) and they were extremely nice. Chiefs were good in the 90's and if not for Lin Elliott (kicker that sucked), may have gone to the Super Bowl. Not a lot of famous people come to Joplin, unless we get hit by a tornado, so that was cool.

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yeah it didn't look too bad, of course it's a different solution from the 00z run but it's been pretty consistently showing a trough developing, just not sure of the amplitude or location. The Euro weeklies had more of an east coast trough and west coast ridge which didn't look too hot for here and we'd probably have NW flow.

I've always been a Chiefs fan.... as back in elementary school, the Chiefs visited my school. I remember meeting Bill Maas (lineman) and Christian Okoye (running back) and they were extremely nice. Chiefs were good in the 90's and if not for Lin Elliott (kicker that sucked), may have gone to the Super Bowl. Not a lot of famous people come to Joplin, unless we get hit by a tornado, so that was cool.

I remember those players very well. Bill Maas and the Nigerian nightmare.

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That was a fun 00z GFS run. The ridging off the west coast is stronger this run and it develops a bit earlier. It's also a bit more active with several storm systems tracking close by us. I hope the trend continues :)

Yes both the 0z and 6z look a lot better for storm set-up 10 days or so down the road. Plenty of time for details but it appears the pattern may be about to grow more favorable.

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Beautiful I-44 fantasy storm on the 12z GFS today.

gfs_namer_300_10m_wnd_precip_s.gif

I'm seeing consistency with the GFS of building the ridge in the Pacific run after run. The systems haven't been all that far off from each other run to run either. Ridge breaks down and it goes back to zonal at the end of the run though.

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Hey guys, I've been silently reading and checking in from time to time. Like all of you I love winter and hope this year is better than last. Loved the weather/football analogy. I'm a Razorbacks fan (this year was a major meltdown) and a Falcons fan (go figure) so this year has been up and down. I'll take that in both football and the weather. Falcons need to win a playoff game or two and we need at least 1 or 2 decent snows.

I watch the models but know very little so I always appreciate the "expert" opinions on here. Keep 'em coming. Checking in on here is my daily drug of choice!!!

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Hey guys, I've been silently reading and checking in from time to time. Like all of you I love winter and hope this year is better than last. Loved the weather/football analogy. I'm a Razorbacks fan (this year was a major meltdown) and a Falcons fan (go figure) so this year has been up and down. I'll take that in both football and the weather. Falcons need to win a playoff game or two and we need at least 1 or 2 decent snows.

I watch the models but know very little so I always appreciate the "expert" opinions on here. Keep 'em coming. Checking in on here is my daily drug of choice!!!

Hey Waterboy good to hear from you. Hog fan here as well and man was this yr a disappointment huh. Hogs were really stretching thinking they might lure Miles away from LSU. How does it feel to actually root for a good NFL team lol.

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Hey Waterboy good to hear from you. Hog fan here as well and man was this yr a disappointment huh. Hogs were really stretching thinking they might lure Miles away from LSU. How does it feel to actually root for a good NFL team lol.

Sounds like the whole Miles thing was a crock anyway. Thank God. No way I wanted him. But he got a big raise out of it today. Gotta love how that works.

For some crazy reason I've been a Falcons fan all my life and suffered through horrible years (ala the Chiefs the past decade) so it's nice to actually enjoy watching a game now. I was born and raised in Arkansas so I have no clue why I started rooting for them when I was young. I think it was the cool red helmets back then.

Anyway, since this is a weather forum and not a sports forum let me add something weather related:

LET IT SNOW!!!!

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Doug Heady about gave everyone a heart attack on Facebook, lol....

He posted:

"I have greatly enjoyed serving the 4-state area over the past 10 years as the chief meteorologist for KOAMTV & FOX14. I do have to say that tonight will be my last night. The reason is because I will be winning the powerball. So all of you with tickets just go ahead and throw them away, I have the winner, lol. Now if I am here tomorrow I guess there was a mistake because I am sure I have the winner, lol."

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