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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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The NHC simply does not want to move that track much further west than HWY. 65 (LZK to SGF)...not sure why exactly when the Euro, GFS and NAM are clustered between Fayetteville and Tulsa. Reading between the lines of the Tulsa discussion I get the feeling they are chomping at the bit to extend the QPF further west. But it seems they are constrained by the protocols that require them to follow the NHC and probably also the HPC. Anyway, looks promising for most of us in the area if the model consensus verifies.

ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...

THE FUTURE TRACK OF HURRICANE ISAAC HOLDS THE KEY TO THIS

FORECAST. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST AND NOW SHOW A

TRACK WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND NAM ARE FURTHEST

WEST...WITH A TRACK BETWEEN OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA...WHILE THE

ECMWF...UKMET AND GEM ALL SHOW A TRACK ACROSS FAR WESTERN

ARKANSAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED

JUST ON THE OKLAHOMA SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

BASED ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE...WE HAVE RAISED POPS

CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND HAVE GONE JUST BELOW

THE HIGH GFS MOS POP NUMBERS. WILL FOLLOW HPC QPF FOR NOW WITH THE

HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE

WEST. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT QPF NUMBERS AT

THIS POINT IN TIME AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SPEED OF ISAAC WILL

BE CRITICAL AS TO WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.

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A consensus track near the AR/OK border could give some of you guys a tornado threat on Friday, though it would probably be maximized more from central AR to central/eastern MO. We shall see. I'm of course pulling for a huge westward shift (ala this morning's 06z NAM) to bring that threat well into OK.

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A consensus track near the AR/OK border could give some of you guys a tornado threat on Friday, though it would probably be maximized more from central AR to central/eastern MO. We shall see. I'm of course pulling for a huge westward shift (ala this morning's 06z NAM) to bring that threat well into OK.

Not much change on the track per 12z NAM and GFS. Still appears to move N along the AR/OK border.

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This evening south of Eureka Springs. Never seen anything like these twins (do these have a name?). Fascinating to consider what conditions existed to create a pair of these. No other cloud build ups in the area.

post-742-0-06271000-1346727361_thumb.jpg

The term "orphan anvil" usually seems like a slight exaggeration. Not this time. :lol:

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We apparently lucked out here. Just a few small limbs down around town that I saw. In fact, we had higher winds from Thursday night's storm. Several did not fare as well, however.

Did you all see the KY3 story about Branson sounding the sirens for extremely high winds? I wonder what your thoughts are on that process. Seems like a grey area for sure.

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We apparently lucked out here. Just a few small limbs down around town that I saw. In fact, we had higher winds from Thursday night's storm. Several did not fare as well, however.

Did you all see the KY3 story about Branson sounding the sirens for extremely high winds? I wonder what your thoughts are on that process. Seems like a grey area for sure.

Nope, I don't get KY3 but Joplin sounded them for high winds as well. The NWS said 70 MPH winds expected in the warning. The city isn't supposed to set them off unless they are 75+ There wasn't as much damage caused by the winds Friday as there was the other morning when no siren was sounded.

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He thinks we'll have an active winter eh?

I dunno, I've read all sorts of forecasts and nobody really agrees with what it's going to do this winter. :-\

Doug was really good last yr I thought with the overall pattern recognition (warm, dry) so am gonna ride his coattails again this winter. I feel pretty good about this winter already.

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Doug was really good last yr I thought with the overall pattern recognition (warm, dry) so am gonna ride his coattails again this winter. I feel pretty good about this winter already.

Brett Anderson posted the ECMWF seasonal outlook:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-clues-about-the-upcoming-winter/72402

The CFS v2 is now back to non-torchy on the temps for Dec.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

The CFS v2 precip map does show a correlation in the precip department with Mr. Anderson's ECMWF outlook:

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html

According to that study I posted in the previous years, ENSO neutral conditions often give us our biggest snows. It looks to be a weak El-Nino this year.

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Not real crazy about any of those maps, except for maybe the wetter than normal close by per the Euro. The +NAO doesnt sound good, but that is hard to predict this far out. I'd settle for a normal winter actually.

A lot of it has to do with the AO.

ENSO neutral with a -AO is a pretty cold look for much of the nation east of the Rockies.

winterforecastaonaoenso.png

Unfortunately it drier lol..

DJF.precip.gif

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JAMSTEC updated for September.

Colder and wetter for here, and the ENSO conditions are expected to be weaker.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

Here's the CPC long range seasonal models for DJF.

Temps:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Seas3.html

Precip:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Seas3.html

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