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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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I know this will change shortly, but there is a growing "storm cancel" vibe among people around me, who have waited all day for the expected 1-2" of rain, and still no more than a brief morning shower so far.

Agreed... it is interesting that where the cutoff line set up yesterday evening, it basically stayed. We finally managed to get some precip overnight, but again the line has pivoted back west again. The difference in a few miles right now is the difference between 1" of rain and upwards of 5".

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Although the rain has not lived up to expectations, last nights gust front was surprisingly strong (50mph) and perhaps higher next door where the neighbor's marginally engineered hobby greenhouse (but fairly well anchored) was ripped from the "foundation". Also some shingle damage to a well built roof. The suddenness and the noise made me wonder for a second if we had a little spin up for a few seconds.

post-742-0-65484400-1332268152.jpg

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We may see some isolated severe out of this tomorrow. If we get daytime heating, it's not out of the realm to see some thunderstorms with hail, damaging winds and cold air funnels or brief tornadoes tomorrow afternoon/evening.

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Cold air funnels.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

521 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

OKZ025-212245-

OKLAHOMA OK-

521 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OKLAHOMA COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM

CDT...

AT 518 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHOCTAW...MOVING NORTH

AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MIDWEST CITY...CHOCTAW...SPENCER...JONES...NICOMA PARK...LUTHER...

TINKER AIR FORCE BASE...FOREST PARK AND LAKE ALUMA.

FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IF TORNADOES DO

DEVELOP...WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TORNADOES WILL BE

RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER... RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND

SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER IS OBSERVED.

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Only 2.25" of rain here through the duration. I feel a little ripped off after all the hype. I didn't want 8-10" but a little bit more would have been nice. ;)

Yeah I know how you feel 24/7 I was starting to think the same thing until today's rain. Steady rain here all day has pushed my total to 3.2 so a good comeback. By looks of radar estimates I think Barry, Greene and some of the adjacent counties picked up the least amount of rain. Big winners were W and S of here and over the eastern Ozarks. Very nice soaking rains the past 48 hrs though.

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Looking forward to the cold core of that upper low coming over the area tomorrow evening. Wonder what kind of surprises it may have in store for us?

I would like to see a cold air funnel. Probably the only type of funnel cloud I'd want to see, lol

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We ended up with 3.45" over the 3 day period, which on balance, is just about perfect for ending the dry-ish start to the year. The 2012 total prior to this storm was only 4.79".

Meanwhile tonight there is a very cool looking ground fog that is so shallow that the stars show through easily.

Regarding Thursday - This snippet from the evening Tulsa AFD -

TOMORROW LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AS

COLD CORE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NE OK.

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Regarding Thursday - This snippet from the evening Tulsa AFD -

TOMORROW LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AS

COLD CORE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NE OK.

12 AM Aviation update:

UPPER LOW TRACKING DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST OK DICTATES

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY WIDESPREAD HAIL MAKERS

MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT INCLUDE HAIL AT

TAF SITES BECAUSE OF LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE RIGHT

AT SITES. HAIL IN THE VICINITY OF AT LEAST SOME TAF SITES

A FAIR BET.

SPC OUTLOOK:

..CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...OZARKS

COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL

RESULT IN SUITABLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT MIDDAY INTO

AFTERNOON...AMIDST WEAK MLCINH. CONVECTION SHOULD

DEVELOP...GREATEST TSTM COVERAGE BEING ALONG CYCLONICALLY CURVING

MESOSCALE BANDS OVER NRN/ERN SEMICIRCLES OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUT POCKETS OF 300-800 J/KG MLCAPE

ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS.

NON-SUPERCELLULAR FUNNELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MORE VIGOROUS

UPDRAFTS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

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Got an upgrade down south.

day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

..SERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX...

STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM

AND IN EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KT JET STREAK AT 500 MB WILL GIVE RISE

TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM

INVERTED TROUGH OVER ERN OK/WRN AR SWD/SEWD ALONG WIND SHIFT INTO

NERN TX. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...BUT RECENT RAINFALL

MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THIS AFTERNOON...BOOSTING

DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 50S F. WHEN COUPLED WITH 500-MB TEMPERATURES

AROUND -20 C...MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 500 J/KG.

THE CO-LOCATION OF ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WITH A 30-40

KT LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 45-55

KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-300 M2/S2.

DESPITE THE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE DEGREE OF

FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST AN INCREASED

LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF

DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. AS

SUCH...THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0134 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221834Z - 222000Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME HAIL /MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND SOME

FUNNELS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN

OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN MO. A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

AS A CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW MOVES LITTLE OVER THE

SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...A SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET EXIT

REGION CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN

PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER CYCLONE. THIS IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS

OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH MODEST CLOUD BREAKS/LOW-LEVEL HEATING

ALONG/JUST NORTH OF A NORTHWARD-PIVOTING WEAK ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL

CONFLUENCE/WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT

PARTICULARLY WARM/MOIST ACROSS THE REGION...INHIBITION HAS DIURNALLY

ERODED IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ACCORDINGLY...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY

FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS/WESTERN MO. MEAGER TOTAL

BUOYANCY WILL TEMPER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER

STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL NONETHELESS BE CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL.

FUNNELS MAY OCCUR AS WELL GIVEN A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE

PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMBIENT VORTICITY IN PROXIMITY TO THE

COLD/STACKED CYCLONE...BUT EVEN BRIEF TORNADOES SEEM UNLIKELY. GIVEN

THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER

MARGINAL/ISOLATED...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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Pretty rare to see these in the area.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

201 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

MOZ077-088-089-221930-

BARTON MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO-

201 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BARTON...NORTHEASTERN

JASPER AND WESTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 158 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUDENVILLE...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF

CARTHAGE...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH

THIS STORM. COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM

BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.

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Strong/Severe storms possible today. Especially if a complex gets going across KS and moves SE. Going to have to watch the low-level CAPE values as they are pretty high and any boundary in the area may cause a spin up.

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EAX thoughts on the severe weather potential in and near Kansas City today, tonight, and Thursday.

Attention then turns to later this afternoon and evening for

convective development initially further west across portions of

central Kansas. The stalled frontal boundary will act as the focus

for shower and thunderstorm activity as moisture pools along and

south of the front and a subtle upper short wave trough currently

across eastern CO translates across the region. Sufficient ascent

from the aforementioned wave coupled with moderate to high

instability (ie SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg) should prove adequate for

convective initiation along the boundary across central Kansas. This

activity is expected to initially remain semi-discrete and with

adequate veering wind profiles with height to support a few supercell

structures. The capping inversion will eventually weaken eastward

down the boundary to support convection into east-central

Kansas/west-central Missouri by late this afternoon and evening.

Freezing heights will be relatively low by this time frame, which

coupled with aforementioned moderate to high instability and

steepening lapse rates would support large hail development in the

more vigorous updrafts. Cannot rule out giant hail development as

well should supercell structure be realized. In addition, DCAPE

values climb at or above 1000 J/kg which should support a damaging

wind threat.

Uncertainty then arises as to the eventual evolution of any

convection that develops. Current thinking is that the afternoon and

evening activity will eventually congeal into a thunderstorm

complex/MCS once cold pool processes begin to dominate. 0-6 Bulk

shear of 35-40kts, MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg, and

perpendicular low level wind vectors would support a forward

propagating complex likely following the instability gradient

southeastward across east-central Kansas into western and eventually

central Missouri tonight. Should this evolution take shape, a

transition to a predominant wind threat would likely take place.

Depending on the mesoscale evolution of tonight`s activity, Thursday

will once again provide adequate ingredients for severe weather

potential. A more prominent upper short wave trough will move into

the plains by Thursday afternoon with weak cyclogenesis across

central Kansas. The stalled frontal boundary will begin lifting

northward as a warm front as the sfc low shifts into eastern

Nebraska. Convection is expected to initiate by the afternoon within

the warm sector as the system shifts east. Fairly impressive

directional shear profiles will develop along with overall

increasing deep layer shear as the upper short wave trough

approaches. All facets of severe appear possible by Thursday

afternoon with again large to potentially giant hail given the

ambient instability and certainly with any supercells. The tornado

potential looks to increase by the late afternoon and evening as H85

flow strengthens, increasing low level helicity. However given the

relatively light sfc flow, tornado potential will be more likely

near the triple point and closer to the warm front.

Activity will shift through the remainder of the area overnight

Thursday and should exit by Friday morning. A nice weekend in the

offing as broad upper ridging shifts overhead keeping the warm

temperatures in place. The next upper short wave trough looks to

slide into the plains by late in the weekend providing the next

chance for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday night/Monday morning.

Thereafter, may see some cooler temperatures push into the region

through the beginning of the work week as the sfc ridge builds

southward.

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