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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Holy smokes, this put me in a spring mood! There is a silver maple in front of the house starting to bud with these sweet blossoms. This afternoon the tree is swarmed with bees. Fairly loud buzzing. Trying to figure out if these are baby bees or some that are coming out of hibernation? In any case, perhaps prematurely, it feels like "real winter" is over.

post-742-0-97971100-1329687004.jpg

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00z GFS is bringing some light wintry precip in with much colder air. Been flip flopping and changing a lot.

I've kinda stopped looking at the GFS for this system cause I haven't seen two runs alike for it for at least two days :whistle:

It looked like it was dropping something on the West Coast in the 150-156 hr period but really kinda failed to dig substantially and remained broad and less amplified.

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Maybe the beginning of a trend back towards the big system that it was showing several days ago? Although the ensembles have lost the signal for the bigger amplification for the most part, with most of them showing a boring, rather zonal flow pattern in this time period.

Euro has been very consistent (pretty much has shown the same general solution since it first came into range), while the GFS has been all over the place, but with a generally less amplified pattern.

The good thing is that the resolution change/truncation hasn't changed the solution on the Euro, as it has kept the powerful west coast trough into the 168 hr period.

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Yeah mostly KS and W MO for now but still a ways out. Things will more than likely change but at least something to look at for now.

Yeah I hope so.

There are still massive model differences going on even in the short range. The Euro has really been bombing lows lately and that will have an impact on the solutions down the line.

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18z GFS, there may be precip still ongoing, south of the snow area there is an area of freezing rain over S MO with primarily rain farther south.

Most of the NWS in the area think that the moisture will be lacking and the GFS is overdoing this system. Euro also has a system but from what I read, a lot less precip. The Euro is also farther south with the cold air.

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Wow at the Euro. Looks like it's traded places with the GFS. GFS has support from the Canadian and JMA.

Yeah the Euro has been having some issues lately.

18z GFS is going dramatically colder to the north of here when compared to it's 12z run but it doesn't reach far enough south for us still.

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