The last thread didn't work - upcoming threats discussion

[Baroclinic Zone]

PREDICT THE 18Z GFS GAME

1) Flat with no reflection:

2) Flat but out to sea:

3) Open wave coastal cyclogenisis (no phase):

4) Open wave insland cyclogenisis to Miller B (no phase):

5) Deep open wave OV cyclogenesis to Miller B (no phase):

6) Deep open wave OV cyclogenesis merge with Miller A/Miller B hybrid (some limited phasing):

7) Deep open wave closing with PV partial phase, OV cyclogenesis to Miller B:

8) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, OV cyclogenesis to Miller B:

9) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, OV/GULF Miller A/Miller B hybrid:

10) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, Miller A Miller B merger:

In 1 to 10, weakest to most intents resulting system.

[moneypitmike]

PREDICT THE 18Z GFS GAME

1) Flat with no reflection:

2) Flat but out to sea:

3) Open wave coastal cyclogenisis (no phase):

4) Open wave insland cyclogenisis to Miller B (no phase):

5) Deep open wave OV cyclogenesis to Miller B (no phase):

6) Deep open wave OV cyclogenesis merge with Miller A/Miller B hybrid (some limited phasing):

7) Deep open wave closing with PV partial phase, OV cyclogenesis to Miller B:

8) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, OV cyclogenesis to Miller B:

9) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, OV/GULF Miller A/Miller B hybrid:

10) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, Miller A Miller B merger:

In 1 to 10, weakest to most intents resulting system.

18z will show #10.

00z run will #2

34.8/31

[earthlight]

#3 seems the most likely to me. 18z NAM, for the little that it's worth, is overbearing with the PV and refuses to split it like most other guidance.

[OKpowdah]

18z GFS will show #6

00z GFS will show #3

[free_man]

#3 seems the most likely to me. 18z NAM, for the little that it's worth, is overbearing with the PV and refuses to split it like most other guidance.

The 18z gfs will show the most fascinating, desirable solution possible.   5-6' of snow for SNE over a 3 day period.     However, reality will probably with #3-#5. 

[ineedsnow]

I dont care what it shows i was just happy to see this

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Damage In Tolland]

ECMWF ensembles are just a bit SE of the benchmark at 144h....they look good right now.

Without having to read the rest of the nonsense..this is all i needed to see.. Game on all of SNE

[Typhoon Tip]

Without having to read the rest of the nonsense..this is all i needed to see.. Game on all of SNE except Mt Tolland area of CT

Fun killer.

[cpickett79]

18z nam looks to hit the area with more showers thru the overnite.....perhaps snow showers

also shows .25-.50 qpf worth of a hit in central and N-central region of NH overnite tonite. with 850's of 0c or lower falling quickly this evening to 128 and to the coast by 9pm.

so plymouth NH keep an eye out tonite......nam shows advisory level snows.

[Zeus]

18z nam looks to hit the area with more showers thru the overnite.....perhaps snow showers

also shows .25-.50 qpf worth of a hit in central and N-central region of NH overnite tonite. with 850's

so plymouth NH keep an eye out tonite......nam shows advisory level snows.

850's for everyone!

You should issue a Winter Weather Advisory!

[Bostonseminole]

PREDICT THE 18Z GFS GAME

1) Flat with no reflection:

2) Flat but out to sea:

3) Open wave coastal cyclogenisis (no phase):

4) Open wave insland cyclogenisis to Miller B (no phase):

5) Deep open wave OV cyclogenesis to Miller B (no phase):

6) Deep open wave OV cyclogenesis merge with Miller A/Miller B hybrid (some limited phasing):

7) Deep open wave closing with PV partial phase, OV cyclogenesis to Miller B:

8) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, OV cyclogenesis to Miller B:

9) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, OV/GULF Miller A/Miller B hybrid:

10) Deep open wave closing with PV purer phase, Miller A Miller B merger:

In 1 to 10, weakest to most intents resulting system.

[powderfreak]

BTV takes a look into fantasy land this afternoon and I like what they see:

LOOKING EVEN FARTHER AHEAD INTO FANTASY LAND, IT DOESN`T APPEAR

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE APPRECIABLY BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THUS I`D PUT

MY MONEY ON A SOLID SNOWPACK FOR US ALL COME DECEMBER 25TH.

[weathafella]

I just turned around to a spectacular sunset with pink and violet hues as the sun drops and it darkens. Beautiful!

[cpickett79]

since this isn't occuring i put in upcoming threats i.e tonite

also looks like some nice convective showers soon to be mixing with snow in higher elevations (this evening) .....from between fiskdale - amherst north toward the monads region. 850's now below 0c in monads and some of these showers seem quite heavy ....some mixing occuring soon in those areas esp. SW nh. accums to follow?

[cpickett79]

my hiney for everyone!

You should issue a Winter Weather Advisory!

you came out of posting hibernation for this gem?

you don't think the central NH area will see accumulating snows tonite?

[powderfreak]

since this isn't occuring i put in upcoming threats i.e tonite

also looks like some nice convective showers soon to be mixing with snow in higher elevations (this evening) .....from between fiskdale - amherst north toward the monads region. 850's now below 0c in monads and some of these showers seem quite heavy ....some mixing occuring soon in those areas esp. SW nh. accums to follow?

It appears as though this thread has morphed into a discussion regarding the threat late in the weekend/early next week. I'm thinking someone should start a thread specific to that threat as it is gathering the most posts.

No one knows what to talk about in this thread... its all over the fooking place.

[Zeus]

you came out of posting hibernation for this gem?

you don't think the central NH area will see accumulating snows tonite?

I don't pay attention to areas that aren't my backyard. And really, we may never know if central New Hampshire receives advisory-level snows tonight; no one lives there to spot it.

And, as already evidenced by your inability to complete one sentence before moving on to the next, your powers of observation are a bit lacking; I've been posting for over a week now.

Nice work with the gay joke edited into the quoted text, though. Haven't seen that done here before, much less anywhere else on the Internet.

Your "Originality in Humor" ribbon is in the mail.

[weathafella]

It appears as though this thread has morphed into a discussion regarding the threat late in the weekend/early next week. I'm thinking someone should start a thread specific to that threat as it is gathering the most posts.

No one knows what to talk about in this thread... its all over the fooking place.

Here:

[Zeus]

It appears as though this thread has morphed into a discussion regarding the threat late in the weekend/early next week. I'm thinking someone should start a thread specific to that threat as it is gathering the most posts.

No one knows what to talk about in this thread... its all over the fooking place.

Right. Let's move discussion about the most significant upcoming threat out of the upcoming threats thread in order to reduce confusion.

Why didn't I think of this?

[powderfreak]

Right. Let's move discussion about the most significant upcoming threat out of the upcoming threats thread in order to reduce confusion.

Why didn't I think of this?

Haha. Well apparently that is the *point* of sub-forums. If we wanted to talk about everything from tonight's snow to next Monday's event in one thread, we might as well go back to the old style.

In my opinion, there are like 3 or 4 "threats" this week... tonight, then ULL and retrograding system on Wed/Thurs, then the weekend and early next week.