Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NAM clown map...probably overdone by at least a factor of 3. LOL in the Kev Lolli Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't see any model solution that gets anything other then maybe 1-2" of a Cumby Chill Zone up this way Euro and gfs graze nne over the event...1-2" is probably the upper end...lol more like 1-2 flakes hahah but there are some solutions grazing my area in NE VT maybe not so much over in maine out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Eh, what do they know I don't think we should really expect any accumulations here in Boston with round 1. We may end as some flakes but I highly doubt any of it sticks unless something closer to the 18z NAM happens with stronger and more developed mid level lows and even with that type of solution I still think the BL is too warm close to the coast. Storm 2 on the other hand is much more interesting for accumulating snows getting all the way to the coast with the tipeostrophic flow sucking the cold air down from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Tipeographic? What is that? Tip on a tailpipe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 LOL in the Kev Lolli Eric might paint in a patch of red there. 49.6/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 these aren't exact...but more or less the time I start check on the various models NAM: 9:45/3:45 (AM/PM) GFS: 11:30/5:30 (AM/PM) Canadian/UK/NOGAPS: 12:30ish (AM/PM) Euro: 2:15 (AM/PM) keep in mind...these will all shift an hour earlier when DST ends Thank god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm hoping being out in the Burbs this year nets me a little more snow. I don't think we should really expect any accumulations here in Boston with round 1. We may end as some flakes but I highly doubt any of it sticks unless something closer to the 18z NAM happens with stronger and more developed mid level lows and even with that type of solution I still think the BL is too warm close to the coast. Storm 2 on the other hand is much more interesting for accumulating snows getting all the way to the coast with the tipeographic flow sucking the cold air down from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ugh I can't wait for DST to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 BOX says congrats all of us hill folks..and even lowlanders too PRELIM THINKING ON SNOW ACCUM IS 2-6" OVER HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MA AND S NH...BUT ONLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF I495 BELT. NO ACCUM BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 BOX says congrats all of us hill folks..and even lowlanders too PRELIM THINKING ON SNOW ACCUM IS 2-6" OVER HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MA AND S NH...BUT ONLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF I495 BELT. NO ACCUM BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. How is N Mass S NH you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Tipeographic? What is that? Tip on a tailpipe? For whatever reason I always mess up ageostrophic and baroclinic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 How is N Mass S NH you? I'm in the 1-3 zone if you read between the lines since I'm NW of BOS-PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Love that 10 inch line over my house. LOL The 18Z NAM certainly shared the love.... NAM clown map...probably overdone by at least a factor of 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Thank god Exactly! I'm a lover of DST...and really like the decision to extend it 6 weeks each year. But at the time I never really considered the ramifications in model wait time. The switch in the spring is especially frustrating after getting used to the 'earlier' run times for the whole winter...makes you feel like a jonesing addict having to wait an extra hour for your crack . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 For whatever reason I always mess up ageostrophic and baroclinic. Lol. Maybe we can have a new term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Exactly! I'm a lover of DST...and really like the decision to extend it 6 weeks each year. But at the time I never really considered the ramifications in model wait time... Same here, Love the late daylight for summer activitys, But really sucks for model runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NAM still showing best ML frontogenesis across NNE ... I'm still interested to see whether some banding of better echoes forms across S VT into C NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm in the 1-3 zone if you read between the lines since I'm NW of BOS-PVD Well, you beat me senseless last year... I read it as north of me even. But an inch or 2 near you would not surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Love that 10 inch line over my house. LOL The 18Z NAM certainly shared the love.... This 18z NAM is the absolute best scenario for our neck of the woods for the first threat. Good accumulations right down to us poor suckers in the valley. Unfortunately...its on its own right now. I think you still look good for some light accumulations even if the NAM doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I get rid of DST over the Atlantic on Halloween night when I cross out of US/Canada time zones on my trip. Europe still switches their clocks back the last Saturday of October..... The plus is only a four hour time change going over. Ugh I can't wait for DST to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 BOX says congrats all of us hill folks..and even lowlanders too PRELIM THINKING ON SNOW ACCUM IS 2-6" OVER HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MA AND S NH...BUT ONLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF I495 BELT. NO ACCUM BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. Unfortunately, they make no reference to their CT zones wrt accumulations yet. Assuming there are no drastic changes in the next 36 hours (I'm sure there will be some wrenches), it will be fun to get reports of the changeover as the line progresses. The AFD has higher NW zones beginning mid-late afternoon. I'm curious--both from a mby and a general curiousity standpoint--what the knowledgeable folks take is on the NAM shift of qpf south. Cause? Likelihood of that playing out? 49.1/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The NAM hates you and your QPF fetish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 As much as the attention has been on SNE and CNE, the 12z EURO spits out about .25" qpf and the 12z GFS does the same thing, for N VT....does anyone have any insight on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Typed up some thoughts on my blog if anyone cares. http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/10/25/2-snow-threats-yup/ And Kevin stop being a drama queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Unfortunately, they make no reference to their CT zones wrt accumulations yet. Assuming there are no drastic changes in the next 36 hours (I'm sure there will be some wrenches), it will be fun to get reports of the changeover as the line progresses. The AFD has higher NW zones beginning mid-late afternoon. I'm curious--both from a mby and a general curiousity standpoint--what the knowledgeable folks take is on the NAM shift of qpf south. Cause? Likelihood of that playing out? 49.1/34 Reformed?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NAM still showing best ML frontogenesis across NNE ... I'm still interested to see whether some banding of better echoes forms across S VT into C NH Everything seems to be compressed in these anafrontal waves...there is little moisture above about 550-600mb after 18z and the bulk of the lift is below 700mb during the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 This is from GYX and i think this may be the 1st time i have heard of this.. ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 4 INCH CRITERIA FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THIS EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AVAILABLE COLD/DRY AIR WILL HELP SHED MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 that's right , Scooter does work there if i recall correctly guess i should clarify that's its one of their products based off of another model ...maybe the HRW or something similar It's a local in-house thing, but like any meso model..it does weird things. I don't look at it beyond 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Typed up some thoughts on my blog if anyone cares. http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/10/25/2-snow-threats-yup/ And Kevin stop being a drama queen. I want to say DD but what you wrote makes sense Any idea how many people read that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 This is from GYX and i think this may be the 1st time i have heard of this.. ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 4 INCH CRITERIA FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THIS EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AVAILABLE COLD/DRY AIR WILL HELP SHED MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS Happens just about every year now it seems. Once you get down into the BOX and OKX CWAs, the criteria is three inches, and with criteria that low, I think they should stick to it first snowfall or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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