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First Winter Storm Threat for New England 2011/12 - II


Baroclinic Zone

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So does the 12z NAM actually have a chance at verifying?

Was sort of assuming this would end up being a wet mix kind of deal here in the valleys per runs over the last few days.. 12z NAM has a decent enough blast of cold that it looks like it would accumulate well for awhile.

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would be nice to see this verify!!! Just to see flakes in the air in October would be a great start to the season!!

Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

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Storm #1 kind of reminds me of an early/mid November accumulating snowfall in 2004. Anybody remember that? Got 5" in Dorchester. Mid-levels were cold but most people doubted the boundary level cooling potential. Ended up snowing right to the ocean, 31F, accumulations of all surfaces.

Yeah I remember that storm.....it was veterans day Monday I believe......we got like 4" in West Hartford.....I remember it well as it was my first snowfall after moving to CT in August 2004......I was in Westport that evening and it was raining but when we left and drove back to West Hartford by the time we got to like Cheshire/Southington it was snowin pretty good......

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Tight gradient this run...but man, they get nailed pretty good around Rt 2 and northward. Ashburnham gets 5-6" while I maybe an inch, lol.

Glad I'm north of Rt. 2. :)

But, people's enthusiasm for what the GFS is showing should be tempered by how dismissive by many people who disregard it when it doesn't show good hits.

50.0/36

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A couple of things about those Simulated Radar Products.

The weird look to the rain/snow line...sort of jagged looking is a resolution thing. Don't take it exactly verbatim.

However it actually works pretty work indicating rain or snow. It might not be perfect in this case since we are so early, but there are critical thickness lines and 850 temps to help out.

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Yeah I remember that storm.....it was veterans day Monday I believe......we got like 4" in West Hartford.....I remember it well as it was my first snowfall after moving to CT in August 2004......I was in Westport that evening and it was raining but when we left and drove back to West Hartford by the time we got to like Cheshire/Southington it was snowin pretty good......

Yeah, I had a similar experience near Boston. When it was raining I doubted that flakes would ever mix in. When it was snowing I doubted it would ever accumulate. I remember being on a City bus heading out of town and it was like someone flipped a switch and all of a sudden everything was turning white. In 20 something years I could not remember accumulating snow at sea level before Thanksgiving so I doubted it could happen. I stopped doubting after that night.

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