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iCyclone Chase: IRENE


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I think, if things work out right and it comes of the coast, nostalgia is worth it. Give it another two days, then camp out a spot at the tip of Buzzards Bay.

P.S. This very well could be a Bob/Edna deal, where the core misses NY but affects SE New England.

I am thinking about driving to West Islip to see my brother :)

Ha, we'll all use family as an excuse to see Irene. :)

Just go to cape henry and catch some 138mph winds

Trubblemaka. :D

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I think even if this hits the Outer banks, it's going to be a run-of-the-mill event for that region.

But I am very, very curious to see what happens past NC. I won't be chasing anything above NC-- you guys know how I am-- but I'll enjoy watching everyone else enjoy it. :sun:

If the worst case scenario were going to pan out, let's say a 120mph LARGE dangerous major 100 mi off NJ headed north into LI, structurally sound and not a complete flake like Gloria ( no offense) , you would not turn it down.

Odds of that are very low, admittedly. :guitar:

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If the worst case scenario were going to pan out, let's say a 120mph LARGE dangerous major 100 mi off NJ headed north into LI, structurally sound and not a completely flake like Gloria ( no offense) , you would not turn it down.

Odds of that are very low, admittedly. :guitar:

:D

You're right, of course-- such a scenario would weaken my resolve to sit on the sidelines.

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A chase for me is looking less likely right now.

The models have really converged nicely and the suggested track over Cape Hatteras is just not my cup of tea, for a couple of reasons:

* There's a high risk of a bust-- i.e., if the cyclone shifts just a little further E, it misses.

* Even if it the center does cross the Cape technically, the best conditions will be well offshore, to the E.

* Hatteras landfalls are usually not very strong. Even a solid Cat 3 is unusual there.

* I don't believe the Outer Banks are very accessible in a hurricane situation.

I haven't ruled out a chase, but the odds seem against it this afternoon, unless the models shift W again. Who knows? (I believe the NHC's current forecast is too far W and will shift E in the 5 pm EDT package.)

This having been said, it looks like this could be an interesting situation developing for you folks in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and you could really see some yumminess out of this. That would be awesome--

a plan of attack : get the red eye tonite, L.A. to Miami......get to s.fl. wends morning and find a hop over to marsh harbor on one of the many charter flites going over to get people off the islands.....catch the ferry to hopetown..you should be there by wend. late afternoon..then hang on...

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Agree. Too bad it's 5 days out (though model consistency is great), because track is near perfect for surge threat. Would still like to see it move a bit faster.

I think the models will start speeding it up-- I have this hunch. The only 'cane to hit the Northeast USA in the last century or so that was moving under 25 kt was Belle 1976. They almost always haul azz.

a plan of attack : get the red eye tonite, L.A. to Miami......get to s.fl. wends morning and find a hop over to marsh harbor on one of the many charter flites going over to get people off the islands.....catch the ferry to hopetown..you should be there by wend. late afternoon..then hang on...

Ha ha ha, sounds like a good plan. :D

As I've mentioned occasionally in the past, I'm fairly pee-shy about island chasing, as the bust potential is so high. The Bahamas look appealing at first, but it's all those little islands and no way to adjust your position as the cyclone makes a last-second wobble.

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The forecast track depicted on the map in this thread would suggest a landfall southwest of Hatteras. That's a bad area for surge and flooding anyway nad probably not the safest area for a chase.

Steve

Yep, true. It's just a tough spot to chase. Lots of issues.

Yesterday, when the models seemed to be settling on a mainland E NC landfall, I have everything all planned out. I found a good hotel in Morehead City, about 20 ft above sea level, in a zone that doesn't get evacuated, apparently. I was going to setup there and it was going to be so awesome. Grrrr.

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I think the models will start speeding it up-- I have this hunch. The only 'cane to hit the Northeast USA in the last century or so that was moving under 25 kt was Belle 1976. They almost always haul azz.

Ha ha ha, sounds like a good plan. :D

As I've mentioned occasionally in the past, I'm fairly pee-shy about island chasing, as the bust potential is so high. The Bahamas look appealing at first, but it's all those little islands and no way to adjust your position as the cyclone makes a last-second wobble.

This is a fairly large hurricane though...could that compensate for the eyewall fetish?

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too bad hilton head's not happening...

Totally.

I was also excited about Morehead City. I had arranged a really sweet setup there-- one that would have been ideal for a direct hit. Oh, well.

I'm ashamed to admit that I'm thinking of chasing this on Long Island and even (ugh) RI/MA. I've even looked at a couple of hotels. I don't know what's gotten into me. :D

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Totally.

I was also excited about Morehead City. I had arranged a really sweet setup there-- one that would have been ideal for a direct hit. Oh, well.

I'm ashamed to admit that I'm thinking of chasing this on Long Island and even (ugh) RI/MA. I've even looked at a couple of hotels. I don't know what's gotten into me. :D

Josh, PM CT Blizz about his parents vacation place in FMH, also if UGH you want to go to UGH RI, I can hook you up at my Moms in Westerly, about 5 miles inland from the barrier beaches.

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Totally.

I was also excited about Morehead City. I had arranged a really sweet setup there-- one that would have been ideal for a direct hit. Oh, well.

I'm ashamed to admit that I'm thinking of chasing this on Long Island and even (ugh) RI/MA. I've even looked at a couple of hotels. I don't know what's gotten into me. :D

Newport? Bob redux FTW?

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Totally.

I was also excited about Morehead City. I had arranged a really sweet setup there-- one that would have been ideal for a direct hit. Oh, well.

I'm ashamed to admit that I'm thinking of chasing this on Long Island and even (ugh) RI/MA. I've even looked at a couple of hotels. I don't know what's gotten into me. :D

What "exactly" would you be chasing is what I am sure your professional side is asking yourself. Certainly not a tight core tongue.gif

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Yep, true. It's just a tough spot to chase. Lots of issues.

Yesterday, when the models seemed to be settling on a mainland E NC landfall, I have everything all planned out. I found a good hotel in Morehead City, about 20 ft above sea level, in a zone that doesn't get evacuated, apparently. I was going to setup there and it was going to be so awesome. Grrrr.

I can relate..I'm originally from there (well Beaufort, little town just east of Morehead City) and was planning to go there on Friday. I even have Bogue Banks entry permits (they evacuate the beaches well ahead of the storm but property owners with passes can come and go as they please until the winds are too high to travel the bridges.) Oh well....

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