WeatherRusty Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Is it slightly more humid than it used to be overall? I'd guess so, though I'm not sure there is data that supports any exact increase at this point. Is this the reason several Western ski resorts set snowfall records this past winter? Probably not. There is no one reason, just like always when many factors phase together properly, heavy precipitation events will occur. With generally more water vapor available there should be a greater propensity for heavy precipitation events. When a wet pattern sets up, a greater moisture supply will sometimes be available. Presumably, everyone here knows this stuff, why are we arguing something like precipitable water? A warmer atmosphere over water supports higher evaporation rates and higher specific humidity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 There is no one reason, just like always when many factors phase together properly, heavy precipitation events will occur. With generally more water vapor available there should be a greater propensity for heavy precipitation events. When a wet pattern sets up, a greater moisture supply will sometimes be available. Presumably, everyone here knows this stuff, why are we arguing something like precipitable water? A warmer atmosphere over water supports higher evaporation rates and higher specific humidity.. Where is the data that supports the idea that humidity has gone up enough to significantly effect precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 But not in TX! Weird...dry/hot in the South and wet/cold in the North during a La Nina regime. Who'd a thunk. Under a dome of unmoving high pressure, sitting over an already dried out surface baking in the Sun. La Nina? Sure, but rarely to this degree. Not since 1936. Look for this with increasing frequency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Under a dome of unmoving high pressure, sitting over an already dried out surface baking in the Sun. La Nina? Sure, but rarely to this degree. Not since 1936. Look for this with increasing frequency. Should we also tell Portland, OR to look for 90 degree-less summers with increasing frequency (they have yet to touch 90 this summer...that has only happened once before)? Should we also tell ski resorts throughout the West they can expect to see their ski resorts stay open until June/July more and more often? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Should we also tell Portland, OR to look for 90 degree-less summers with increasing frequency (they have yet to touch 90 this summer...that has only happened once before)? Should we also tell ski resorts throughout the West they can expect to see their ski resorts stay open until June/July more and more often? And also should we tell Chicago, Milwauke, Minneapolis/the Midwest/lakes to brace for cold/snowy winter after cold/snowy winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 LEK I would gladly do so, but I am unlikely to beat the skeptics to the punch on that one! The thing is, we all know climate is changing toward a warmer state. We disagree on the cause and degree of eventual warming. Disregarding the anthropogenic aspect for a moment, why is it so difficult to acknowledge the changes in weather patterns that logically should be expected to occur even if we do not understand why and how all that well? Why do you assume me to be so disingenuous, hypocritical or lacking in the integrity to not acknowledge something wrong with the science behind AGW if that eventuality were to occur? I don't view the recent record breaking events of the past decade in isolation, I see them as part of an evolving pattern due to a warming of the Earth. Record breaking cold has not been the trend, record breaking warmth has been. There still exists record breaking cold, just significantly less than record breaking warmth. We currently sit around .5 degrees above the recent global climatological average. There is little to no proof that such a modest anomoly (natural or not) would be realized as record heat to the degree we've seen it in one select part of the globe. It's natural variations..."normal" is inherently inclusive of extremes. In a warmer climate, sure, we'd expect to see a proportionate increase in the ratio of warmer records vs. colder ones. But to assume the intense heat in the central US is somehow even slightly attributable to a current .5 global anomoly, and not just the normal "extremes of nautral variability" is quite an embellishment...and over-valued as evidence for AGW. Just as the brutal cold of last year in the US, Europe, and more recently in S. America's winter (last month) is overvalued as an argument against global warming. The globe is constantly trying to obtain themal equilibrium....and it does so, sometimes, in dramatic ways...and always has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Should we also tell Portland, OR to look for 90 degree-less summers with increasing frequency (they have yet to touch 90 this summer...that has only happened once before)? Should we also tell ski resorts throughout the West they can expect to see their ski resorts stay open until June/July more and more often? No to the second one because reduced snow on the ground has been the trend out there. What has been the overall temperature trend for Portland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 We currently sit around .5 degrees above the recent global climatological average. There is little to no proof that such a modest anomoly (natural or not) would be realized as record heat to the degree we've seen it in one select part of the globe. It's natural variations..."normal" is inherently inclusive of extremes. . But to assume the intense heat in the central US is somehow even slightly attributable to a current .5 global anomoly, and not just t In a warmer climate, sure, we'd expect to see a proportionate increase in the ratio of warmer records vs. colder oneshe normal "extremes of nautral variability" is quite an embellishment...and over-valued as evidence for AGW. Just as the brutal cold of last year in the US, Europe, and more recently in S. America's winter (last month) is overvalued as an argument against global warming. The globe is constantly trying to obtain themal equilibrium....and it does so, sometimes, in dramatic ways...and always has. If the anomaly were 0.0C would the likelihood for that sort of heat be more or less probable? We are seeing more warm records than colder ones, and more of the record highs are occurring at night. SEE Not just thermal equilibrium as in smoothing out temperature gradients, but also in reaching equilibrium with increasing surface radiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 No to the second one because reduced snow on the ground has been the trend out there. Until the -PDO arrived. Big increase in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 In the spirit of playing the devil's advocate: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2026146/New-Zealand-snow-Country-hit-heaviest-snowfall-30-years.html#ixzz1V6yxAEnp If it's due to AGW, then at least we have an increased negative feedback (albedo)!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 We currently sit around .5 degrees above the recent global climatological average. There is little to no proof that such a modest anomoly (natural or not) would be realized as record heat to the degree we've seen it in one select part of the globe. It's natural variations..."normal" is inherently inclusive of extremes. In a warmer climate, sure, we'd expect to see a proportionate increase in the ratio of warmer records vs. colder ones. But to assume the intense heat in the central US is somehow even slightly attributable to a current .5 global anomoly, and not just the normal "extremes of nautral variability" is quite an embellishment...and over-valued as evidence for AGW. Just as the brutal cold of last year in the US, Europe, and more recently in S. America's winter (last month) is overvalued as an argument against global warming. The globe is constantly trying to obtain themal equilibrium....and it does so, sometimes, in dramatic ways...and always has. However if land anomalies are higher than the global average, then it tilts the odds more toward the heat waves and high temperature records. How many all time lows have we had lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Where is the data that supports the idea that humidity has gone up enough to significantly effect precipitation? We can assume that absolute humidities will generally go up when the temperature rises. Conversely, where's the evidence that relative humidity is going down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 We can assume that absolute humidities will generally go up when the temperature rises. Conversely, where's the evidence that relative humidity is going down? You didn't answer my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 You didn't answer my question. Here is what the IPCC had to say on the matter as a summary of research. See Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 You didn't answer my question. Sorry, though I was suggesting your question was a bit incomplete, since there are good intuitive reasons why relative humidity should stay the same (or at least could go either way). However the absolute humidity has been measured to rise over the past decades over Boulder. In addition to what WeatherRusty posted, new AIRS data is also coming online that should help to resolve this, at least first over shorter time scales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e pluribus unum Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Dumb thread. Last December was the coldest on record for western Europe. OMG LOLZ!111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 Dumb thread. Last December was the coldest on record for western Europe. OMG LOLZ!111 Cold records continue to be broken. However they are significantly outnumbered by new record warmth records. A thread which presents a factual reality is not dumb, those who deny reality may be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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