free_man Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 Wednesday already looking less impressive as we get closer as we were afraid of AWWAO That was to be expected. There was a slight chance of an "outbreak", a good chance of some strong storms. I think that is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Lol.. cmon man.. its severe wx in New England.. we don't get hit with every snowstorm we don't get hit with every severe wx event.. you'll get your 1-2 severe storms this summer and then it will be right back to the meaningful wx for our area in the winter It's the emotional devotion placed into it. I don't even remember making this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 It's the emotional devotion placed into it. I don't even remember making this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Just realized too the state tournament for baseball begins on Tuesday and the second round is Wednesday so if we win on Tuesday we'd have th play on Wednesday which means I probably wouldn't be able to chase...my friend would not like that...we could at least still go though, just have to go on the fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 That was to be expected. There was a slight chance of an "outbreak", a good chance of some strong storms. I think that is reasonable. An outlook from the SPC on day 4 or 5 only happens with 30% or greater probabilities which is hard to do in this area 72+ hours out. Many times 4-8 day outlook areas become MDT risk by SWODY2 or SWODY3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 An outlook from the SPC on day 4 or 5 only happens with 30% or greater probabilities which is hard to do in this area 72+ hours out. Many times 4-8 day outlook areas become MDT risk by SWODY2 or SWODY3 I'm happy we just have been in the risk area for two consecutive runs. I've seen in the past before where we'd be highlighted in one 4-8 day outlook and then the next one nothing at all with no reasoning as to why we were taken out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm happy we just have been in the risk area for two consecutive runs. I've seen in the past before where we'd be highlighted in one 4-8 day outlook and then the next one nothing at all with no reasoning as to why we were taken out. The potential is there. Mid level NW/WNW flow along with steep mid level lapse rates always catches my attention. The issue now is getting the timing to come together and juxtaposing high shear with high CAPE. More often than not our severe events occur with a SW flow aloft... which means if low level winds are backed to give us strong low level shear we're flooded with a marine layer. That's what makes NW flow events exciting for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The potential is there. Mid level NW/WNW flow along with steep mid level lapse rates always catches my attention. The issue now is getting the timing to come together and juxtaposing high shear with high CAPE. More often than not our severe events occur with a SW flow aloft... which means if low level winds are backed to give us strong low level shear we're flooded with a marine layer. That's what makes NW flow events exciting for us. The timing of the important features is going to be quite difficult...alot will also depend on how how quickly the ridge begins to break down. It doesn't look like the better shear comes here until later in the afternoon or early evening so hopefully in a sense the ridge breaks down a bit slower rather than faster so the strong s/w comes through a bit later and allows the chance for stronger shear to work in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Wiz when was the last moderate risk in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Wiz when was the last moderate risk in SNE? I remember June 6th last year...I don't recall any other one after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I remember June 6th last year...I don't recall any other one after that. We all remember how well that worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 We all remember how well that worked out The day before was actually turned out to be the bigger and more widespread event. At least this time though we should actually have really steep ML lapse rates, something that was lacking in that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 An outlook from the SPC on day 4 or 5 only happens with 30% or greater probabilities which is hard to do in this area 72+ hours out. Many times 4-8 day outlook areas become MDT risk by SWODY2 or SWODY3 My bad, only talking from IMO, not the "slight" wording the SPC uses. When this thread was made, my guess was a slight chance (like 10 or 15%) of something really big and 85% of just the usual SNE type storms, strong and maybe damaging but not a large outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Screw the shear, just give me the big CAPE. Shear is overrated around here. We can have all the shear in the world, but it don't mean shiat without CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Screw the shear, just give me the big CAPE. Shear is overrated around here. We can have all the shear in the world, but it don't mean shiat without CAPE. Yeah I agree, once in a while something will work out with the large shear but very rarely. I remember some made a case stating that low cape/high shear events seem to rule here but they really blow. I'll take the big cape any time, especially if we can get some lift around. Wednesday, right now looks like it has the potential to have everything, high capes, decent shear, steep lapse rates, good lift, strong s/w...just need it to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I thought last summer had some pretty intense storms right imby. Maybe not intense for anyone outside of NE but intense for this part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 My bad, only talking from IMO, not the "slight" wording the SPC uses. When this thread was made, my guess was a slight chance (like 10 or 15%) of something really big and 85% of just the usual SNE type storms, strong and maybe damaging but not a large outbreak. Oh yeah I wasn't saying that to you directly it was more a generic post that I thought of after reading your post. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm sorry.. Can someone explain shear and Cape relating to severe weather? Or give me a website. All of you guys talk about these two factors and I have no effin clue what they mean lol.. I'm sure several members who don't really follow severe wx would too. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Screw the shear, just give me the big CAPE. Shear is overrated around here. We can have all the shear in the world, but it don't mean shiat without CAPE. LOL yeah. We have many svr days back here with 2500 j/kg CAPE but getting that to occur with 50 knots of 0-6km deep layer shear is what's a challenge and pretty hard to accomplish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah I agree, once in a while something will work out with the large shear but very rarely. I remember some made a case stating that low cape/high shear events seem to rule here but they really blow. I'll take the big cape any time, especially if we can get some lift around. Wednesday, right now looks like it has the potential to have everything, high capes, decent shear, steep lapse rates, good lift, strong s/w...just need it to come together. Those seem like our best days in this part of SNE (BOS area). Those days where you have a lazy front draped along the Pike and wind fields are weak, but modest. You tend to get lots of dewpoint pooling and huge CAPE. Strong shear around here means strong srly winds, and that will just kick the feet out from any tstms 90% of the time. It's a little different out in western areas, but I'm just speaking for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 Screw the shear, just give me the big CAPE. Shear is overrated around here. We can have all the shear in the world, but it don't mean shiat without CAPE. Garden variety storms are good, I lose interest after a couple rounds. What you said works out better for BOS than most interior areas, too. When you get lots of shear early in the season, it generally means seabreeze city or contamination for the city and there goes your sb cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 Those seem like our best days in this part of SNE (BOS area). Those days where you have a lazy front draped along the Pike and wind fields are weak, but modest. You tend to get lots of dewpoint pooling and huge CAPE. Strong shear around here means strong srly winds, and that will just kick the feet out from any tstms 90% of the time. It's a little different out in western areas, but I'm just speaking for this area. you read my mind, disregard previous post. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 Oh yeah I wasn't saying that to you directly it was more a generic post that I thought of after reading your post. My bad. ah, np Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I thought last summer had some pretty intense storms right imby. Maybe not intense for anyone outside of NE but intense for this part of the world. sure.. i was in belmont when the macroburst smoked them and there was lots of damage.. that was the tor watch wknd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm sorry.. Can someone explain shear and Cape relating to severe weather? Or give me a website. All of you guys talk about these two factors and I have no effin clue what they mean lol.. I'm sure several members who don't really follow severe wx would too. TIA CAPE is a measure of instability... convective available potential energy. The higher the CAPE the more buoyancy air has. Vertical wind shear is basically the change of wind with height... both speed and directional. Shear plays a huge role in determining the mode of convection... whether it's ordinary, multicell, or supercellular. The stronger the shear you generally see more organized convection for a couple reasons... one is that shear can help keep outflow from undercutting the storms updraft and another is that vertical wind shear helps keeps storms organized in lines or clusters by promoting new updrafts on a specific flank of a storm. Strong shear also produces horizontal vorticity (or spin) than can be tilted into an updraft to produce a mesocyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Those seem like our best days in this part of SNE (BOS area). Those days where you have a lazy front draped along the Pike and wind fields are weak, but modest. You tend to get lots of dewpoint pooling and huge CAPE. Strong shear around here means strong srly winds, and that will just kick the feet out from any tstms 90% of the time. It's a little different out in western areas, but I'm just speaking for this area. Good point, Scott. One thing that makes me perk up is a NW flow event because you can still have fairly impressive shear with a SW or SSW sfc wind flow which can bring sig svr to the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm sorry.. Can someone explain shear and Cape relating to severe weather? Or give me a website. All of you guys talk about these two factors and I have no effin clue what they mean lol.. I'm sure several members who don't really follow severe wx would too. TIA Well shear is important for t'storms and for severe wx b/c it helps to allow for the storms to organize. When you have strong vertical shear values (0-6km shear) in excess of 30-35 mph this helps to allow for thunderstorms to become organized, when you get above 30-45 knots of vertical shear it can lead to the updrafts beginning to rotate some and make some storms take on supercell characteristics. Shear is also important b/c it really helps out with mid level and upper level support...being in the Right Entrance Region or Left front quadrant of a mid-level jet or upper level jet stream can really enhance the upward vertical motion and also help to allow for updrafts to build bigger. Cape is important b/c it's a measure of atmospheric stability...the larger the cape values the more unstable the airmass is and the stronger and more intense the updrafts will be. The warmer the surface temperatures, the higher the surface dewpoints and the steeper the mid level lapse rates are the higher your cape values will be. Since t'storms and severe wx are really dependent on cape/shear...cape gives the storms the energy they need to live and intensify, shear helps them to become organized...you want to have a good balance of cape/shear. If you have any other questions just ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Good point, Scott. One thing that makes me perk up is a NW flow event because you can still have fairly impressive shear with a SW or SSW sfc wind flow which can bring sig svr to the coastal plain. Aka monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 But as much as I posted about shear... strong shear in the absence of high CAPE can cause all sorts of problems by disrupting updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 12 NAM wants to break out storms early on around here...major decrease in cape by 18z. NAM also insanely high with those dews...mid 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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