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Severe wx potential Wednesday


free_man

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The real good setups that produced like ORH in 1953 had an EML complete with srly winds. That way, you have maximum shear with srly winds turning wrly with height as well as extreme CAPE. We won't have that this time around...at least it doesn't appear that way, but good mid level lapse rates and a decent trigger is a start.

I'm not gonna get any hopes up at all until the 12z Monday stuff rolls in.

to be honest I am thrilled there is no south winds that would make bos' svr chances nil

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to be honest I am thrilled there is no south winds that would make bos' svr chances nil

Well that's the catch 22. South winds kill us here, but it does make for good helicity. However, there was an F3 or EF3 in Bristol county during that day (June 9th 1953).

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It's probably wrong to do this..lol, but there is nothing else to talk about.

Courtesy of Mike Ekster and Peter Banacos...check out the similarities to t=0 on the 700mb height fields of various EML composites on Fig 4 of the paper and what the GFS is showing.

This is a sweet paper, mentions the F4 tornadoes in Worcester and Hamden, among the biggest severe weather events we've had in the Northeast. It seems that the EML can become a factor when we achieve the rare Sonoran type heat wave that is coming this week. Wednesday should be interesting...I'd like the low to track a bit further south so we have stronger pressure falls.

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This is a sweet paper, mentions the F4 tornadoes in Worcester and Hamden, among the biggest severe weather events we've had in the Northeast. It seems that the EML can become a factor when we achieve the rare Sonoran type heat wave that is coming this week. Wednesday should be interesting...I'd like the low to track a bit further south so we have stronger pressure falls.

Would be nice to get the stronger wind fields and shear south too

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Sexy.

DAY 5...UPPER TROUGH WILL TURN SEWD THROUGH QUEBEC AND THE NERN

STATES WEDNESDAY. DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS DEWPOINTS IN THE

LOW-MID 60S ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR ALONG A WLY LLJ BENEATH EWD

EXPANDING EML. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF

SEWD MOVING FRONT. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH

WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE

STORMS WITHIN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

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DAY 4...WEDNESDAY

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NERN STATES WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH

SERN CANADA. SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE ADVECTED MID 60S

DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH REMNANT EML

PLUME. AS CAP WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT

THROUGH NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG SRN

PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS

INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN A FAVORABLE

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

Basically a carbon copy of the previous. Can't complain!

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Stuff looks good for Wednesday still. It looks like things come together a little better between 21z and 00z. I don't think it has the impressive shear values of some of our more notable events, but good turning with height and good CAPE, so we'll see.

I think the bigger issue will be the lapse rates aloft. We could see those become a bit less extreme as we near Wednesday.

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I think the bigger issue will be the lapse rates aloft. We could see those become a bit less extreme as we near Wednesday.

That seems to always happen lol. I'd like the mid level winds to pick up a bit earlier in the day. It's not until 00z that the shear really starts to ramp up.

One of the nice things about a true EML (that we're probably not going to see here) is that the atmosphere remains capped through most of the day and prevents a bunch of junk convection going up all over the place.

If the GFS sped up a bit I'd be more excited but still a pretty sizable potential for 4 days out lol.

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That seems to always happen lol. I'd like the mid level winds to pick up a bit earlier in the day. It's not until 00z that the shear really starts to ramp up.

One of the nice things about a true EML (that we're probably not going to see here) is that the atmosphere remains capped through most of the day and prevents a bunch of junk convection going up all over the place.

If the GFS sped up a bit I'd be more excited but still a pretty sizable potential for 4 days out lol.

Check out what the SREFs do in the Instability section. Go to the probability of >7C/KM lapse rates. They squeeze to the south. That, and any convective taint is my concern. I'm still going into this in a kind of conservative mode, but there is nothing else to really look at. I'm sure something will screw this up..lol.

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Check out what the SREFs do in the Instability section. Go to the probability of >7C/KM lapse rates. They squeeze to the south. That, and any convective taint is my concern. I'm still going into this in a kind of conservative mode, but there is nothing else to really look at. I'm sure something will screw this up..lol.

It's a good setup... that's for sure. Heights fall pretty rapidly during the afternoon and with all this instability we're good. A lot of times very steep lapse rates modeled 3+ days out wind up going to crap as earlier convection and the release of latent heat modulates the lapse rates.

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Check out what the SREFs do in the Instability section. Go to the probability of >7C/KM lapse rates. They squeeze to the south. That, and any convective taint is my concern. I'm still going into this in a kind of conservative mode, but there is nothing else to really look at. I'm sure something will screw this up..lol.

I hope so. Seems bizarre to me to want severe weather especially after the death and destruction we've seen the last weeek or two. Fortunately for us this is New England and we don't do severe that well.

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I hope so. Seems bizarre to me to want severe weather especially after the death and destruction we've seen the last weeek or two. Fortunately for us this is New England and we don't do severe that well.

Well it's not like we stand the chance of getting another Joplin MO disaster, but some good severe is always interesting. I have no problem in saying I want to see it.

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Just checked out the SPC SREFs, Scooter, and you can see what could be the problem with the best instability being squeezed south and the best wind shear remaining north.

Yeah granted it's in the far range of the SREFs, but still you can see one possible issue. Eh, we'll see. Maybe we get a couple of chances between now and then of some action.

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Well it's not like we stand the chance of getting another Joplin MO disaster, but some good severe is always interesting. I have no problem in saying I want to see it.

I wasn't speaking of you so much. lol It's tough for me to get excited about the chance of a few claps of thunder 4 days out. I like thunderstorms when they cool everything down and it is impressive to see such a ferocious display of nature's power. Still, I wonder if Birving would still hope for severe weather if he had to pick through a debris field to find his bongos.

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I wasn't speaking of you so much. lol It's tough for me to get excited about the chance of a few claps of thunder 4 days out. I like thunderstorms when they cool everything down and it is impressive to see such a ferocious display of nature's power. Still, I wonder if Birving would still hope for severe weather if he had to pick through a debris field to find his bongos.

starting the "is wishing for severe weather socially acceptable?" debate... trolling this morning and in poor taste, honestly. If you don't have anything to add, go back to the banter thread, please.

thanks to everyone else for adding something of value

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Yeah, you would know about things in poor taste.

Agreed..!. anyone who is remotely interested in the science would be excited for that type of setup. What you are doing is spinning what I said into the emotional debate of it, which is obviously not what it was or meant to be. Spinster. I'm out.

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Been looking at the severe weather potential even up here in Aroostook and things may even get pretty dicey up here. Looking like a low CAPE/high shear environment for Wednesday afternoon/evening. Noticed that the Sig Tornado Parameter from the 03Z SREF model shows some potential over western Aroostook at 18Z Wednesday. I also ran the Maglenta Equation (Refer: http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu:7773/Research/maglenta.html) for both Caribou and it yields a 0.94 off of the GFS model valid 8 pm EDT Wednesday. A 1.5 or less on the equation suggests a tornadic event. I'm just finishing writing the local forecast for up here and have started really mentioning severe weather potential with damaging winds (Storm motion 45-50 mph for Wednesday, large hail and outside chance of tornadoes.

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If Wednesday doesn't pan out I will quit severe wx...and I mean it...maybe even weather itself.

Lol.. cmon man.. its severe wx in New England.. we don't get hit with every snowstorm we don't get hit with every severe wx event.. you'll get your 1-2 severe storms this summer and then it will be right back to the meaningful wx for our area in the winter

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