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Severe wx potential Wednesday


free_man

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We've seen it in the models for quite some time now and if anything, they have converged a bit more. Possible "outbreak"?

Looks like a strong ML punch, favorable lapse rates- should be at least modest instability. There will probably still be issues, however it is almost a slam-dunk for some decent storms, timing and location aside - and possibly something even more interesting than "decent".

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Probably WSW or SW. We don't want winds that are too westerly, otherwise we won't have as much convergence, and also westerly winds tend to dry out dewpoints.

Yeah exactly, also probably not as much localized veering in the lls, which most of our big events have.

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The bufkit seems to think were going to have some convective inhibition.. probably another nw of PVD/BOS deal

A little bit of CIN can be good, it prevents too many smaller showers/tstorms and debris from contaminating the whole setup. You are more likely to get some explosive discrete supercells with a little CIN. Obviously you don't want too much.

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A little bit of CIN can be good, it prevents too many smaller showers/tstorms and debris from contaminating the whole setup. You are more likely to get some explosive discrete supercells with a little CIN. Obviously you don't want too much.

The bufkit gfs number for 'cins' at logan is 112 @ 5PM. I'm not sure how high that is on the scale for cins/cinh

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The GFS breaks the cap after the sounding I posted. Some CIN is good because of what Will posted.

There could be a precursor MCS event on Tuesday evening/overnight also.

I've seen signs of that as well...along with something possible early Monday morning too.

That sounding is great. Everyone wants excessive shear, but big CAPE = fun. You can have all the shear in the world, but CAPE will dictate what happens.

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PVD/EWB/PYM/ are all stable due to marine influence... BOS/HFD/BDL/ORH are unstable but CINH is noticeably higher at BOS which probably means we are fried... I think that outlook from the spc is perfecto right now

Don't take BUFKIT verbatim. Fine details like how far the marine influence infiltrates will never be resolved properly on models. Sometimes the resolutions causes it to be too far inland. Based on how the mass fields look, and the instability aloft..that's all I need to see at this juncture. Like Will said, lets see this on Monday before getting too excited.

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lol...it would be the opposite issue IMO...ton of instability...but shear isn't overly impressive. The other event had a ton of shear but **** lapse rates and limited instability.

Yeah that was the type of setup where if we actually got any decent storms, they would want to start rotating at the least excuse possible, the shear was ridiculous...but horrible ML lapses rates and relatively poor sfc heating that day really screwed us.

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Don't take BUFKIT verbatim. Fine details like how far the marine influence infiltrates will never be resolved properly on models. Sometimes the resolutions causes it to be too far inland. Based on how the mass fields look, and the instability aloft..that's all I need to see at this juncture. Like Will said, lets see this on Monday before getting too excited.

My earliest thoughts is probably nothing good southeast of a Hingham-Brockton-Providence line at this juncture... HFD looked pretty impressive that might be one of the places to be if this threat verifies

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Yeah that was the type of setup where if we actually got any decent storms, they would want to start rotating at the least excuse possible, the shear was ridiculous...but horrible ML lapses rates and relatively poor sfc heating that day really screwed us.

A few decently curved hodo's for weds.. looks like the LLJ increases as the day wears on which is good. Moisture increases aloft I'm not sure whether that has a positive or negative effect.

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Yeah that was the type of setup where if we actually got any decent storms, they would want to start rotating at the least excuse possible, the shear was ridiculous...but horrible ML lapses rates and relatively poor sfc heating that day really screwed us.

the event on Wednesday hasn't looked like a tornado outbreak whatsoever IMO...more of a derecho possibility.

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A few decently curved hodo's for weds.. looks like the LLJ increases as the day wears on which is good. Moisture increases aloft I'm not sure whether that has a positive or negative effect.

The real good setups that produced like ORH in 1953 had an EML complete with srly winds. That way, you have maximum shear with srly winds turning wrly with height as well as extreme CAPE. We won't have that this time around...at least it doesn't appear that way, but good mid level lapse rates and a decent trigger is a start.

I'm not gonna get any hopes up at all until the 12z Monday stuff rolls in.

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Source region is important: MN/IA MI , to Lakes, to NE is a perfect trajectory. Positive to neutral tilt trof. Lastly that high offshore staying locked in could help keep winds backed more swly. Lots of positives, hopefully things don't fall apart too much as we close in.

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