Winter 2011-2012

[HoarfrostHubb]

Epic is last years news, coining a new term this year, expect you guys in CNE NNE to have one of those classic long lasting winters. We are in the zone Dave, like Gonzo, just in the zone, and until I see signs that we are out of it I will continue to pimp it. I was pumped for 10 but too much of a good thing, 11 was La Epic for me but I think 12 might be historic in it's length and overall wintry appeal, kiss early ending winter goodbye. You will need your skis!

I would really like a winter that lasts beyone mid-Feb (I did get some snow after that but no big ones)

Ray' huge March/April is on it's way

[ORH_wxman]

The MJO appears to be positioning near Indian ocean or even eastern Africa. SOI is picking up again too. That may induce more easterly winds over the ENSO region and keep the warming in check...at least for now.

I'm still thinking we probably cool back to a weak Nina going into this winter. If we cannot get over the hump this summer and we start getting the easterlies going again, then any idea of an El Nino is likely cooked and we ride a Nina into winter.

I really don't think any of these scenarios though is bad for us. We'd ideally want a weak El Nino here as those have produced monster winters with SNE often being in the bullseye for snowfall anomalies....but a weak Nina could be just fine as I posted a couple pages back with our area fairing pretty well in cold ENSO with -QBO.

[CoastalWx]

I'm still thinking we probably cool back to a weak Nina going into this winter. If we cannot get over the hump this summer and we start getting the easterlies going again, then any idea of an El Nino is likely cooked and we ride a Nina into winter.

I really don't think any of these scenarios though is bad for us. We'd ideally want a weak El Nino here as those have produced monster winters with SNE often being in the bullseye for snowfall anomalies....but a weak Nina could be just fine as I posted a couple pages back with our area fairing pretty well in cold ENSO with -QBO.

It follows the 2008 trend as well on the 3.4 region anomalies. They went weakly into the positive region during July and August of that year and then settled back down into negative territory during the fall. It seems this may follow that trend as well. I agree with the weak Nina possible during the winter.

[ORH_wxman]

It follows the 2008 trend as well on the 3.4 region anomalies. They went weakly into the positive region during July and August of that year and then settled back down into negative territory during the fall. It seems this may follow that trend as well. I agree with the weak Nina possible during the winter.

The last weak Nina we had with a -QBO was 2000-2001 though 2005-2006 was essentially a weak Nina but failed to gain "official" status. Both winters actually had a -NAO but '05-'06 had the dreaded Bering Straight vortex which kept most of the CONUS torched and all the frigid arctic air went into Europe.

'00-'01 had a favorable PAC and obviously we saw a frigid winter over the CONUS. I believe we haven't had a winter as cold nationally as '00-'01 since then.

[CoastalWx]

I'd run with '00-'01. Sure it wasn't as anomalous here, but a pretty active pattern regardless. I guess the big thing that we should fear is the Bering Sea vortex of torch death.

[ORH_wxman]

I'd run with '00-'01. Sure it wasn't as anomalous here, but a pretty active pattern regardless. I guess the big thing that we should fear is the Bering Sea vortex of torch death.

Boston got a little unlucky in '00-'01. It was still a decent season with 46" of snow, but obviously considering what happened in ORH up through S NH (over 100"), the 46" seemed mildly disappointing. The pattern was great though, they'd probably cash in better given another shot at that pattern. It was very active and quite a lot of cold was available. The blocking pattern that developed in late Feb and March was amazing.

[CoastalWx]

Boston got a little unlucky in '00-'01. It was still a decent season with 46" of snow, but obviously considering what happened in ORH up through S NH (over 100"), the 46" seemed mildly disappointing. The pattern was great though, they'd probably cash in better given another shot at that pattern. It was very active and quite a lot of cold was available. The blocking pattern that developed in late Feb and March was amazing.

Yeah it was a bit of a tease..especially down my way on the south shore. I'd take the chance again if I could...we were about 25 miles from getting hit real hard in BOS. Regardless, I'm already looking at pics from last winter...lol. What a sicko.

[weathafella]

I don't really see some sort of red flag or anything..at least at this stage. We're kind of in that "go with the flow" stage...waiting to see some late summer and early fall trends.

All going according to plan. 2001 summer, 2001-02 winter. I'm dealing. You all should also.

[CoastalWx]

All going according to plan. 2001 summer, 2001-02 winter. I'm dealing. You all should also.

I'll just roll with the punches as usual. In the end, weather will do what it wants to do. I guess I just don't see too many factors pointing towards a crappy winter, but I don't see anything that screams epic either. Even if I get 45"....I'll take it. How can I complain after last winter?

[nzucker]

All going according to plan. 2001 summer, 2001-02 winter. I'm dealing. You all should also.

Disagree strongly.

Weak Niña winters are usually awesome...thinking of 95-96 and 08-09 recently. During the last cold phase/-PDO, we had several very nice weak Niña/negative-neutral winters like 60-61, 62-63, 66-67.

-QBO/solar minimum is a combination that favors blocking as we saw in Winter 09-10, and when the NAO is favorable we tend to do well.

We also have the coldest global SSTs since the early 2000s, so these airmasses might pack a bit of a punch. Definitely not as warm of a globe as we went into Winter 10-11 with.

[weathafella]

Disagree strongly.

Weak Niña winters are usually awesome...thinking of 95-96 and 08-09 recently. During the last cold phase/-PDO, we had several very nice weak Niña/negative-neutral winters like 60-61, 62-63, 66-67.

-QBO/solar minimum is a combination that favors blocking as we saw in Winter 09-10, and when the NAO is favorable we tend to do well.

We also have the coldest global SSTs since the early 2000s, so these airmasses might pack a bit of a punch. Definitely not as warm of a globe as we went into Winter 10-11 with.

Last year should have taught you on over reliance of the so called science. All of what you are referencing isn't due to sample size that is so small that the supposed wx that occurs is little better than chance. And I might add that my thoughts and Steve's can be put in that category.2001-02 may have been officially neutral but it was a carryover weak Nina vibe. I honestly think we're heading down that path. And I remind you that the consensus was for a blockbuster cold/snow winter in the long range that year.

[OSUmetstud]

Last year should have taught you on over reliance of the so called science. All of what you are referencing isn't due to sample size that is so small that the supposed wx that occurs is little better than chance. And I might add that my thoughts and Steve's can be put in that category.2001-02 may have been officially neutral but it was a carryover weak Nina vibe. I honestly think we're heading down that path. And I remind you that the consensus was for a blockbuster cold/snow winter in the long range that year.

sample sizes are small for sure...but if that's the case...then why are you so big on a bad winter? It's not as if it looks like we are heading for a strong Nina or a strong Nino.

[OSUmetstud]

Last year should have taught you on over reliance of the so called science. All of what you are referencing isn't due to sample size that is so small that the supposed wx that occurs is little better than chance. And I might add that my thoughts and Steve's can be put in that category.2001-02 may have been officially neutral but it was a carryover weak Nina vibe. I honestly think we're heading down that path. And I remind you that the consensus was for a blockbuster cold/snow winter in the long range that year.

sample sizes are small for sure...but if that's the case...then why are you so big on a bad winter? It's not as if it looks like we are heading for a strong Nina or a strong Nino. Will or Scott...is there any significant lag between the Fall ENSO state and the following winter? IE if we have warm anomalies into the fall will the effects of a developing La Nina in Dec/Jan/Feb be reduced or mitigated?

[ORH_wxman]

sample sizes are small for sure...but if that's the case...then why are you so big on a bad winter? It's not as if it looks like we are heading for a strong Nina or a strong Nino. Will or Scott...is there any significant lag between the Fall ENSO state and the following winter? IE if we have warm anomalies into the fall will the effects of a developing La Nina in Dec/Jan/Feb be reduced or mitigated?

ENSO tends to peak in the late fall...there are exceptions of course. That's actually the time period we care most about for ENSO state since there is usually about a 2-3 month lag between ENSO and the weather patterns across North America.

But given that this year's event appears to be weak whether it goes into a Nino or Nina or remains neutral, the effects will probably be pretty tepid and some of the other factors will exert more influence than versus a moderate or strong event. We could have a bit of a "hangover" effect from Nina if we stay negative-neutral or go back into a weak Nina event. We saw this pretty clearly in 2008-2009 coming off the mod/strong '07-'08 Nina.

With a weaker event, we'll probably be a lot more at the mercy of the NAO/PNA and other factors that are difficult to predict more thna a coupel weeks out. Last year, the NAO blocking became so strong that it essentially crushed any semblance of a SE ridge until it finally backed off and went positive. This year with a weaker event, even a modest -NAO could probably exert more influence.

[OKpowdah]

Last year should have taught you on over reliance of the so called science. All of what you are referencing isn't due to sample size that is so small that the supposed wx that occurs is little better than chance. And I might add that my thoughts and Steve's can be put in that category.2001-02 may have been officially neutral but it was a carryover weak Nina vibe. I honestly think we're heading down that path. And I remind you that the consensus was for a blockbuster cold/snow winter in the long range that year.

2001-2 had exactly the opposite stage of the QBO, and the evolution of the Pacific is different enough for me not to consider much weight on that winter

[VAwxman]

Heavy heavy warmth is what it showed yesterday for the three month period of JAN-FEB-MAR 2012 east of the Rockies

Keep in mind that is the old CFS. I don't know if the new version will prove to be any better or not, but it has a different look for JFM.

[Ginx snewx]

Keep in mind that is the old CFS. I don't know if the new version will prove to be any better or not, but it has a different look for JFM.

Lock up JFM Brian.

[ORH_wxman]

Keep in mind that is the old CFS. I don't know if the new version will prove to be any better or not, but it has a different look for JFM.

Looks pretty similar to '08-'09 actually. The recent Ninas (or strong cold-neutrals) have done a pretty good job at keeping the cold pipeline from AK/Yukon territory to the northern U.S. open for business. We haven't had one of those horrific Canada torches in a Nina since '05-'06. Hopefully we keep that streak intact whether this officially goes Nina or a cold neutral.

[Ginx snewx]

Looks pretty similar to '08-'09 actually. The recent Ninas (or strong cold-neutrals) have done a pretty good job at keeping the cold pipeline from AK/Yukon territory to the northern U.S. open for business. We haven't had one of those horrific Canada torches in a Nina since '05-'06. Hopefully we keep that streak intact whether this officially goes Nina or a cold neutral.

I think we extend winter well past Presidents day with a sustained classic 60s winter. The CFS actually looks too warm in the west to me. Picturing a large chunk of USA cold, the global temp change is impressive. Good time to buy futures.

[CoastalWx]

FWIW (and it might not be much because it is the Sept/Oct/Nov forecast), but the euro seasonals are having a nice Aleutian ridge and weak PV anomaly in the NW territory. We've seen that before. The farthest they go out, is the SON timeframe.

[VAwxman]

I personally think we'll see 00-01 and 08-09 (despite QBO differences) on a lot of analog lists for next winter, but I'm less confident in any seasonal calls these days than what I may have been in years past.

[ski MRG]

I personally think we'll see 00-01 and 08-09 (despite QBO differences) on a lot of analog lists for next winter, but I'm less confident in any seasonal calls these days than what I may have been in years past.

Glad to hear it. Both 100+" winters here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Glad to hear it. Both 100+" winters here.

[OKpowdah]

I personally think we'll see 00-01 and 08-09 (despite QBO differences) on a lot of analog lists for next winter, but I'm less confident in any seasonal calls these days than what I may have been in years past.

which is going to be interesting since they were very very different winters

[HoarfrostHubb]

Glad to hear it. Both 100+" winters here.

Are any less than one hundred?

[ski MRG]

Are any less than one hundred?

None that I care to remember.

[OKpowdah]

Are any less than one hundred?

None that I care to remember.

well said

[ORH_wxman]

which is going to be interesting since they were very very different winters

Both had cold in the northern tier so I'd take either one. Though if forced to pick one, I'd definitely go with '00-'01

What a winter that was in the interior here. That was probably the biggest weenie winter in the last several decades for your hometown in SW NH. Probably like 140" of snow there.

[nzucker]

None that I care to remember measure

Fixed.

Both had cold in the northern tier so I'd take either one. Though if forced to pick one, I'd definitely go with '00-'01

What a winter that was in the interior here. That was probably the biggest weenie winter in the last several decades for your hometown in SW NH. Probably like 140" of snow there.

Those winters, 00-01 and 08-09, had roughly the same amount of snowfall here, around 45"...I think my Poconos house may have done real well in 00-01. Do you have any idea what happened up there that winter, Will?

Despite all the disappointment, March '01 gave Westchester around 12" of snow, and I think there was another event in March as well. December 2000 was also a good storm for this area although North-Central NJ got way more than Westchester, with some places seeing over 20". I think Dobbs had like 14" or something...it was brutally cold that month, I do remember it even though I was young. I had several USTA tennis tournaments and lessons, and I remember how hard it was to dress well as you didn't want to have to deal with changing out of too many jackets and sweaters with the limited time we had given that many of the matches/lessons were only like an hour after school, and quite far from my house...yet, if you didn't bundle up, you'd be uncomfortable REAL fast.

To be honest, December 2000 was probably the last great December my area has seen. Dec 2002 was nice with around 11" on the Christmas storm, but temperatures ended right around average. December '03 and '04 were pretty mild, '05 was mediocre, '06 was a torch, and '07 was snowless. My area missed out on the 12/19/09 storm with only 8" while LI and SE CT had 16-20"; that was a pretty cold December, but missing the brunt of that much acclaimed Nor'easter really lowered the grade. This December was pretty much the same: we had the brutal cold like Dec '00, and I absolutely loved the chill, but I only got 13" in the Boxing Day storm that dumped 20-30" across the NYC metro, so that stung a bit. There were no other snow events except for 1.5" that fell in an arctic front on 12/13, and we barely missed a big storm on 12/19 which only hit Cape Cod (I got criticized for going too low with snow on Cape Cod, although saying 4 days out that the storm would miss due to the poor PNA and broad trough was a gutsy call given that the Euro was showing a HECS with the GFS not far away....I thought this was one of my better forecasts aside from 1/27/11 when I said NYC was going to get smacked despite the Euro showing mostly rain 72 hours out. You may disagree but that's OK.) In any case, I thought December 2010 was a bit boring for tracking except 12/26; it was a shame to miss out on the chance to have more snow cover since we had days and days with highs in the 20s and low 30s. The station downtown recorded 16 days with highs <35F and 8 days with highs <32F. The averages here are around 48/30 on December 1st and 38/26 on December 31st, so that's impressive for my area.

In any case, I do feel that Westchester is due for a bigger December in terms of snowfall. We just can't seem to get the ideal mix of big snowstorms and cold weather in December lately, even though the month has generally had a cold/snowy vibe. Our snowiest Decembers, like 2002, weren't that cold. And our coldest Decembers, like 2010, just weren't that snowy. It hasn't been a pattern problem, however, as the 12/26/10 and 12/19/09 storms could have pounded us, we were just miles away. I could see a BIG December this year with a weak Nina, a dropping QBO, and the solar minimum.

[OKpowdah]

Both had cold in the northern tier so I'd take either one. Though if forced to pick one, I'd definitely go with '00-'01

What a winter that was in the interior here. That was probably the biggest weenie winter in the last several decades for your hometown in SW NH. Probably like 140" of snow there.

Those two winters had very different evolution though. February and March were polar opposites lol. But yeah, but great interior winters.

I love how for every pre-winter thread in the last decade, one of us manages to bring up 2001 at least once a week Just an incredible couple of months.