Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Who is Nickotitsyn? Nicky sixes? Almost feel like this is alternate universe with lots of people thinking like I do. I am usually too enthusiastic about patterns but do know great potential when I see it. Hopefully it occurs but man been down this road before and it is usually behind a plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yeah, I'm nervous with those because they can turn into screwjobs...but I'm not going to get ahead of myself. The Canadian more or less was showing that. It phased those two pieces of energy that Bob noted. Absolutely.....high risk, high reward.....I find it analagous to a rather complex and extensive cosmetic surgery in that you are assuming a great risk in undergoing such an intricate and precise procedure, in an effort to transform from an "ugly duckling" into a more asthetically pleasing being; well, in attempting ascension into the anals of Paul Kocin, a rather pedestrain, benign SW assumes the risk of an unsuccessful coplulation with the retrograding PV rendering it a sheared out, P Cloudy and 33*F day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Did someone steal your ID, totally impressed. Lots of soul searching this year......I'm sure I'll still do my share of bi******. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Lots of soul searching this year......I'm sure I'll still do my share of bi******. hey, where have you been? i just posted in the "who's missing thread asking about you" hahahahaha.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 hey, where have you been? i just posted in the "who's missing thread asking about you" hahahahaha.... I think your sense of awareness went out-to-sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I think your sense of awareness went out-to-sea. oh, just like this winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Absolutely.....high risk, high reward.....I find it analagous to a rather complex and extensive cosmetic surgery in that you are assuming a great risk in undergoing such an intricate and precise procedure, in an effort to transform from an "ugly duckling" into a more asthetically pleasing being; well, in attempting ascension into the anals of Paul Kocin, a rather pedestrain, benign SW assumes the risk of an unsuccessful coplulation with the retrograding PV rendering it a sheared out, P Cloudy and 33*F day. Yeah not much room for error here, but I hear ya. I always pay attention to shortwaves that cross the southern US because those are the ones that can cause things to sometimes change in a hurry. Of course they are prone to getting sheared out like any northern stream s/w, but they also cross over high octane fuel residing in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 oh, just like this winter.... March ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Check out the GFS ensemble spread at D6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What a mess..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Lots of soul searching this year......I'm sure I'll still do my share of bi******. Hey we all b I t ch getting screwed is all part of it, agony and ecstasy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 at the diffs in the SW......cut-off ULL, ridge.....minor discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 20" of mash potato snow. The kind that piles 20" on the railings of a deck without falling. Oh man..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Check out the GFS ensemble spread at D6 Good to see consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Some of the 18z GFS ensembles have a storm by 180 hours after the first storm pulls out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 at the diffs in the SW......cut-off ULL, ridge.....minor discrepancies. If it rains heavy in LA in this pattern , game on 5 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Check out the GFS ensemble spread at D6 I'll take p002 @180 ftw Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Check out the GFS ensemble spread at D6 That instills confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'll take p002 @180 ftw Will. Actually that's pretty good agreement, timing difference but you can visualize what the options are pretty well, long long ways off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Even the euro ensembles hint at something on 12/8 by having the mean sort of jump southwest into Nova Scotia, so the chance is certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 That instills confidence. It also illustrates why you shouldn't throw the towel in on a possible event that's 5+ days away. Especially given the present parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 And has anyone else notice that most of the storms shown on the ensemble members over the last few days have had their origins from the Gulf?? This is a strong La Nina?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 And has anyone else notice that most of the storms shown on the ensemble members over the last few days have had their origins from the Gulf?? This is a strong La Nina?? Impossible there is no STJ or so I was told. Such a minor database for knowledgeable folks to make such absolutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 It also illustrates why you shouldn't throw the towel in on a possible event that's 5+ days away. Especially given the present parameters. I agree with that. It's the failure of anything to get closer than 8-9 days that has been the source of frustration. Since none of the long-term depictions are playing out, it would be very funny if something ended up manifesting itself with a nice short window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I agree with that. It's the failure of anything to get closer than 8-9 days that has been the source of frustration. Since none of the long-term depictions are playing out, it would be very funny if something ended up manifesting itself with a nice short window. When any given modeled soloution is transient due to a pattern that is in a state of great flux, these are inherent occurences. You need to comprehend that and wrap your mind around that fact going in, or else you are going to end up with tipped chairs, couches....whole dinning room set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 And has anyone else notice that most of the storms shown on the ensemble members over the last few days have had their origins from the Gulf?? This is a strong La Nina?? One of my earliest memories of gaining interest in the weather is seeing a map on the local tv station (alb) depicting a low slingshotting at us from the GOMx. It was noteworthy because it was one of a series of storms that came at us from the gulf. Sometime in the early 70's I would geuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 When any given modeled soloution is transient due to a pattern that is in a state of great flux, these are inherent occurences. Definite pattern this fall has been the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Impossible there is no STJ or so I was told. Such a minor database for knowledgeable folks to make such absolutes. Its splitting the polar jet which creates some storms pretty far south without a STJ. Couple that with Atlantic blocking and you have a pattern that resembles nothing like a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I agree with that. It's the failure of anything to get closer than 8-9 days that has been the source of frustration. Since none of the long-term depictions are playing out, it would be very funny if something ended up manifesting itself with a nice short window. I've been saying the season of the sneaky low for a reason. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The 12/8-9 storm is so far out that its impossible to really speculate what we might need to have happen. There's a good chance the 120 hour prog will look different come verification time...and the next threat is a solid 90-100 hours beyond that. Ideally we'd have the blocking vortex lift a bit northeast to reduce confluence a bit OR retrograde back far enough west or southwest to phase with any shortwave coming out of the lower plains. u know i just cant believe we are still talking about the same thing one year later. i never would have imagined it, tbh. oh well, payback will be fun for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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