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December 1-3 lake effect snow event


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One of those classic southtowns events it appears...OP will end up with like 24" and BUF with less than 6" laugh.gif

I don't remember one of these events happening in the last 5-10 years.

2/4/2007

NOUS41 KBUF 042206

PNSBUF

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-050953-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

453 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS

FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED

TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS

AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR

HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO

**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ERIE COUNTY...

EAST AURORA 30.0 450 PM 2/4

***********************SNOW ON GROUND***********************

LOCATION SNOW TIME/DATE COMMENTS

ON GROUND OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ERIE COUNTY...

EAST AURORA 42.0 450 PM 2/4

$

16" in OP, 24" in Boston, Buffalo only had 8.6" on 3rd, trace on the 4th. East Aurora had a total 36" by the 5th.

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You might see some Fri....As well as some next week

In house meso model is shifting the LO band on the western MV and Western Catskills tomorrow evening. It tends to be fast and indeed corrections are apparent between the 06z and 12z runs of this model. 12z run now trending more south of the Tug into the Wrn MV by 6-8 tomorrow night think it might be even a bit later.

Also interesting to note it develops another band on Sunday from EC LO SSE-SE to east of Binghamton. FWIIW with this new 2nd band its giving potential 4-6 amounts across Western Delaware County.

Yep, and was busy making you a .gif just for you while you were posting!! :):thumbsup:

Below are my thoughts on the placement of the main bands in 6 hour animated form ....I'll comment more later and post a "still in progress" total map (thru Fri 12z)

YCm4vy.gif

You have way too much time on your hands. ;-)

Much like last week, I think we will start out with two bands...(models never seem to show this, and seemingly compromise) then consolidation further north (a break for you) then the southward move tomorrow aftn./eve. begins

Agree with the southward shift later tomorrow but IMO it may be even more south come Friday AM then what you're showing.

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In house meso model is shifting the LO band on the western MV and Western Catskills tomorrow evening. It tends to be fast and indeed corrections are apparent between the 06z and 12z runs of this model. 12z run now trending more south of the Tug into the Wrn MV by 6-8 tomorrow night think it might be even a bit later.

Also interesting to note it develops another band on Sunday from EC LO SSE-SE to east of Binghamton. FWIIW with this new 2nd band its giving potential 4-6 amounts across Western Delaware County.

You have way too much time on your hands. ;-)

Agree with the southward shift later tomorrow but IMO it may be even more south come Friday AM then what you're showing.

Yes, you might be correct on the timing....things are moving faster than modled, I'd push some of the timing locations ahead by a few hours. That said, if there isn't a distinct (>30 degree windshift) the L. Ontario band will hold onto the band (utilizing the shoreline frictional convergence as an aid) to keep it north longer than one would expect....seen it time after time. If there is a prolonged gentle forcing from the north....eventually the band will detach from the lakeshore.....but usually very slowly. Then we must wait a period of time to regenerate vertical circulation patterns, and hope that we retain a bit of llv moisture, to get the south and southeast areas adjacent to the lake, into the action.

And I don't have all that much time on my hands....it's the first .gif loop I've ever posted! Took about 20 minutes. Wife was on the phone, kids were winding down, Dad was crunching LES numbers!! :arrowhead:

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Looks like about 5 inches of synoptic stuff from the Barnes Corner webcam.

You can see the Lake Ontario band just beginning to form on radar. Im headed to the Hill in the AM. Only 4 more days to catch Bambi's daddy. Probably gonna go on a 4-5 mile march. Should be fun in a foot+ of the whitestuff.

Sorry but I got daddy 2 weeks or so ago and then I got Bambi yesterday. Its much easier hunting with vehicles than guns. :thumbsup::arrowhead::whistle:

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Yes, you might be correct on the timing....things are moving faster than modled, I'd push some of the timing locations ahead by a few hours. That said, if there isn't a distinct (>30 degree windshift) the L. Ontario band will hold onto the band (utilizing the shoreline frictional convergence as an aid) to keep it north longer than one would expect....seen it time after time. If there is a prolonged gentle forcing from the north....eventually the band will detach from the lakeshore.....but usually very slowly. Then we must wait a period of time to regenerate vertical circulation patterns, and hope that we retain a bit of llv moisture, to get the south and southeast areas adjacent to the lake, into the action.

And I don't have all that much time on my hands....it's the first .gif loop I've ever posted! Took about 20 minutes. Wife was on the phone, kids were winding down, Dad was crunching LES numbers!! :arrowhead:

I was busting on you. Your home sounds like mine. Now the goal is to do it in 15 minutes then 10 and so on. :thumbsup:

I think the shift south will also be contingent on how soon the low off to the NE retrogrades or pushes southwestward.

A bit off thread topic but: Speaking of retrograding lows I truly hope that we're not going be seeing a lot of these this winter. I don't mind SWF events giving light to moderate events but NE Warm Air Advection snows are unique but only after the first ONE!

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Sorry but I got daddy 2 weeks or so ago and then I got Bambi yesterday. Its much easier hunting with vehicles than guns. :thumbsup::arrowhead::whistle:

Oh no!! You hit another one? UGH. Im sorry for you. My buddy wacked an 8-pt with his truck 2 weeks ago. Got it fixed, then almost hit another. Its dangerous out there.

Looks like the Lk Ontario band wants to set up over Watertown early on.

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We've talked about this on many occasions. To get your NWS forecasted totals, you CANNOT simply add up the maximum ranges. I suspect down near OP/WS that around a foot is a good bet.

Exactly. That's why they issue advisories/warnings. 8-16" is the official NWS forecast for OP/WS.

The snowfall amount ranges in the NWS Point and Click forecasts come from the gridded database the forecasters actually put together. Therefore, the amounts indicated can be added up to get a good idea of a storm total (range built in though to show potential uncertainty and variation). Just keep in mind that there is some rounding for the range so it will be off a little bit but it should not differ substantially from what the storm totals are expected to be (i.e. what is in the warning and/or advisory products). I can imagine though it is more challenging to draw snowfall amount grids for lake effect snow given the narrow bands that make up lake effect.

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NWS now saying this and I think this is underestimating it considering West Seneca already has 10 inches.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 14 TO 20 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT

BANDS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

First NWS said 6-12 inches then 8-16 inches now 14-20 , I bet theyll up it to 16-24 =]

West Seneca seems to be the dividing line. Notice that there's two reports from West Seneca...I think they're both legit. one is 3.5...the other is 9.8. Does your gf lives in SE West Seneca or right near South Buffalo? My parents live off of Seneca St. on Kirkwood Dr...so I'd imagine they're closer to the 3.5 than the 9.8.

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West Seneca seems to be the dividing line. Notice that there's two reports from West Seneca...I think they're both legit. one is 3.5...the other is 9.8. Does your gf lives in SE West Seneca or right near South Buffalo? My parents live off of Seneca St. on Kirkwood Dr...so I'd imagine they're closer to the 3.5 than the 9.8.

My girlfriends near Orchard Park road and Berg.
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the southtowns got plenty in those events...city of BUF/NWS BUF just got more...

I'm talking about an event that hammered central Erie County when the city barely got anything.

This type of event:

stormd.gif

I got you man, I figured thats what you meant. I used to Live in Tonawanda and these events crushed me so bad when I was younger. The gradients were ridiculous....and I think this current event is going to have even more mind boggling gradients, it just seems like such a classic event.

As many of you may remember, my avatar for the past three years was a gorgeous LES radar from lake Erie during a classic event in the late 90's.....I'll be able to use a current radar for my new one!

This is my absolute favorite weather event on the planet....too bad I can see stars out my window :axe: just 50 miles beyond this snow bomb. And as a tease, I'll catch some rogue flakes out of a clear sky on these events as the clouds literally dry up directly over my head. I actually envision that the vertical circulations are still in place, just invisible.....

I'll be living vicariously through you guys tonight.

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I got you man, I figured thats what you meant. I used to Live in Tonawanda and these events crushed me so bad when I was younger. The gradients were ridiculous....and I think this current event is going to have even more mind boggling gradients, it just seems like such a classic event.

As many of you may remember, my avatar for the past three years was a gorgeous LES radar from lake Erie during a classic event in the late 90's.....I'll be able to use a current radar for my new one!

This is my absolute favorite weather event on the planet....too bad I can see stars out my window :axe: just 50 miles beyond this snow bomb. And as a tease, I'll catch some rogue flakes out of a clear sky on these events as the clouds literally dry up directly over my head. I actually envision that the vertical circulations are still in place, just invisible.....

I'll be living vicariously through you guys tonight.

How much snow did you get today? Looks like ROC came in with 3.3 inches from the synoptic snows.

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How much snow did you get today? Looks like ROC came in with 3.3 inches from the synoptic snows.

3 to 4 inches IMBY. The snow water ratio was absurd though, had to be like 5-1. The stuff was absolute cement, I think mostly because it melted into super dense slush on paved surfaces. Not exactly the way I like to break in my shoveling season.

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3 to 4 inches IMBY. The snow water ratio was absurd though, had to be like 5-1. The stuff was absolute cement, I think mostly because it melted into super dense slush on paved surfaces. Not exactly the way I like to break in my shoveling season.

Thanks, I will have to check in with my parents in Hilton as they probably got a similar amount. I was wondering if the snow was rather wet, and sure enough it was. Yeah, shoveling that wet of a snow is no picnic. South of Buffalo is getting creamed as the radar looks impressive. I saw one cloud to ground lightning strike plotted on my display during the last 5 minutes.

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Hopefully people don't get stuck on the Thruway tonight. I recall an event in early December last winter with people stranded SW of BUF. Troopers brought gas on snowmobiles. Was on national news. Part of me wants to experience it though...crazy, I know. :snowman:

Too late for Cars getting stuck. My girlfriend said her and her dad were riding around Orchard Park/West Seneca and there are a few cars that are starting to become stranded because the plows arnt going out because its simply snowing to heavy. My girlfriend says shes at 12 inches now with heavy thunder and lightning snow.

These pics are also over 1 hour old, so not 12 inches in these pics. Probally about 10.

post-1351-0-01204400-1291247524.jpg

post-1351-0-03738100-1291247532.jpg

post-1351-0-99567100-1291247541.jpg

post-1351-0-67420800-1291247552.jpg

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This is my absolute favorite weather event on the planet....too bad I can see stars out my window :axe:just 50 miles beyond this snow bomb. And as a tease, I'll catch some rogue flakes out of a clear sky on these events as the clouds literally dry up directly over my head. I actually envision that the vertical circulations are still in place, just invisible.....

I'll be living vicariously through you guys tonight.

Even worse right now in my location - I've been getting a nice light show for the last hour as the convective band rips along less than 10 miles to my south. This is acutally rare in my experience - can't recall being outside the band but still experiencing lightning and hearing occassional claps of thunder. It's so close I can literally smell it, yet so far away....

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Too late for Cars getting stuck. My girlfriend said her and her dad were riding around Orchard Park/West Seneca and there are a few cars that are starting to become stranded because the plows arnt going out because its simply snowing to heavy. My girlfriend says shes at 12 inches now with heavy thunder and lightning snow.

These pics are also over 1 hour old, so not 12 inches in these pics. Probally about 10.

My experience in chasing these events tells me that there is far more Cloud to Cloud lightning, which I think makes sense. Probably explains why only one CG hit has shown up.

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Even worse right now in my location - I've been getting a nice light show for the last hour as the convective band rips along less than 10 miles to my south. This is acutally rare in my experience - can't recall being outside the band but still experiencing lightning and hearing occassional claps of thunder. It's so close I can literally smell it, yet so far away....

I'm very glad I didnt go to my girlfriends today. I just had a gut feeling not to go or I'd get stuck.

It is hard to sit here in Eggertsville and watch this snowband drop a foot of snow in 6 hours over West Seneca just 15 miles south of here.

I'll be going there Friday so I'm sure ill see a few feet of snow on the ground by then =]

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Even worse right now in my location - I've been getting a nice light show for the last hour as the convective band rips along less than 10 miles to my south. This is acutally rare in my experience - can't recall being outside the band but still experiencing lightning and hearing occassional claps of thunder. It's so close I can literally smell it, yet so far away....

I feel your pain more than you know. I think I actually cried or was depressed for several days during many of the early 90's events(I was a kid then, but I think i would still be pissed tonight, lol). I would wait for hours sometimes trying to see a good close up radar on TWC. Those were some rough years....

On a side note, thank god for technology....

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I'm very glad I didnt go to my girlfriends today. I just had a gut feeling not to go or I'd get stuck.

It is hard to sit here in Eggertsville and watch this snowband drop a foot of snow in 6 hours over West Seneca just 15 miles south of here.

I'll be going there Friday so I'm sure ill see a few feet of snow on the ground by then =]

Damn man, you are blowing it. Who cares about getting stuck there. You'll regret missing this one.

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I'm very glad I didnt go to my girlfriends today. I just had a gut feeling not to go or I'd get stuck.

It is hard to sit here in Eggertsville and watch this snowband drop a foot of snow in 6 hours over West Seneca just 15 miles south of here.

I'll be going there Friday so I'm sure ill see a few feet of snow on the ground by then =]

that's a lot of fail dude. Sorry.

:lol:

I drove from Oswego to Buffalo to see October 12-13, 2006...where's your passion?

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