hooralph Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 so hypothetically a storm shows up two weeks from now that is just marginally cold enough for SNE...does Kev still say it'll trend north? No, that's just models underestimating the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Why do people in the mid atlantic always get so upset anytime the NT is mentioned. It's a La Nina..It's reality.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Why do people in the mid atlantic always get so upset anytime the NT is mentioned. It's a La Nina..It's reality.. Chumming the waters, Rev? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Why do people in the mid atlantic always get so upset anytime the NT is mentioned. It's a La Nina..It's reality.. Because they want it all to themselves...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Well perhaps verbatim they don't, but models tend to have biases in certain situations that cause them to trend or correct in a certain direction as we approach T=0. After quickly rereading the paper, the other thing that stands out is the use of 850mb temps as a variable to track. I think that there are definitely signs that model guidance trends with respect to the evolution of disturbances in the flow. The problem with trying to quantify this is that any one variable is not linearly dependent on say the track of a short wave. There will be bifurcation all over the place, so that of course no trend will be evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Why do people in the mid atlantic always get so upset anytime the NT is mentioned. It's a La Nina..It's reality.. The North trend is a fallacy. It's just a know bias of the GFS that it overestimates the cold and squashes systems to our South. Since the GFS has been upgraded we need to see if this is still one of it's weeknesses, just like the Euro's weekness for holding back closed lows in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 The North trend is a fallacy. It's just a know bias of the GFS that it overestimates the cold and squashes systems to our South. Since the GFS has been upgraded we need to see if this is still one of it's weeknesses, just like the Euro's weekness for holding back closed lows in the SW. No it's not. It is very real..and it's not based on the GFS..It happens with all models.. Even the Euro. They start south and end up trending it north and west as we get closer..and it happens mostly with snowstormsand in la Ninas. Anyone will tell you this..well except DT which is probably where you got this silly idea from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 No it's not. It is very real..and it's not based on the GFS..It happens with all models.. Even the Euro. They start south and end up trending it north and west as we get closer..and it happens mostly with snowstormsand in la Ninas. Anyone will tell you this..well except DT which is probably where you got this silly idea from I think it is true with last year as an exception (to some extent). I remember countless noreasters leaving sne clear that eventually come up the coast a bit or more than a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 No it's not. It is very real..and it's not based on the GFS..It happens with all models.. Even the Euro. They start south and end up trending it north and west as we get closer..and it happens mostly with snowstormsand in la Ninas. Anyone will tell you this..well except DT which is probably where you got this silly idea from I'll take DT over you any day. Just sayin'. If "your" theory is true than based on last nights Euro we should expect the Day 9/10 system to track over BUF and the CMC solution as modeled should cut up to the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'll take DT over you any day. Just sayin'. If "your" theory is true than based on last nights Euro we should expect the Day 9/10 system to track over BUF and the CMC solution as modeled should cut up to the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Why do people in the mid atlantic always get so upset anytime the NT is mentioned. It's a La Nina..It's reality.. Upset? We all know you're pretty much trolling. How'd that trend work out last year? If you say it enough times, you'll get it right eventually. Because they want it all to themselves...... Yeah, because we control the weather and there were plenty of us hoping we all would get in on the fun. This post makes no sense. At any rate, I hope there is an east coast blockbuster.....this place would be hoppin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Upset? We all know you're pretty much trolling. How'd that trend work out last year? If you say it enough times, you'll get it right eventually. Yeah, because we control the weather and there were plenty of us hoping we all would get in on the fun. This post makes no sense. At any rate, I hope there is an east coast blockbuster.....this place would be hoppin' This thread is full of Phail... Great job with the show last night btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What would the North trend, as you speak of, do to this system as modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Upset? We all know you're pretty much trolling. How'd that trend work out last year? If you say it enough times, you'll get it right eventually. Yeah, because we control the weather and there were plenty of us hoping we all would get in on the fun. This post makes no sense. At any rate, I hope there is an east coast blockbuster.....this place would be hoppin' Randy, great job on the site, excellent radio setup,. I do not think Kev posting a topic about North trends in La Nina modeling is a troll especially since it is within our own sub forum . I do see the regionalism and lack of a common thread as being a detriment to sharing of experiences, the region threads hop while the main board discusses ice p u s s i e s Australia TC,'s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Upset? We all know you're pretty much trolling. How'd that trend work out last year? If you say it enough times, you'll get it right eventually. Yeah, because we control the weather and there were plenty of us hoping we all would get in on the fun. This post makes no sense. At any rate, I hope there is an east coast blockbuster.....this place would be hoppin' I knew that would get someones attention, We all luv ya down that way just like you guys do us here, We all want snow, Great show by the way i hear, Even though i could not get on........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 I don't know why folks think this is trolling. I'm simply posting about a natural occuring phenomenon that occurs in all la ninas.. Nothing more..nothing less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Randy, great job on the site, excellent radio setup,. I do not think Kev posting a topic about North trends in La Nina modeling is a troll especially since it is within our own sub forum . I do see the regionalism and lack of a common thread as being a detriment to sharing of experiences, the region threads hop while the main board discusses ice p u s s i e s Australia TC,'s. I supposed, but even when there were no subforums, he would do it. I guess the history trumps the intent in this thread. I'm souring on regional subforums myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I knew that would get someones attention, We all luv ya down that way just like you guys do us here, We all want snow, Great show by the way i hear, Even though i could not get on........ Why couldn't you get on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Why couldn't you get on? I think i logged in late, I had an account with blog radio when i was over on the "Other" board, But by the time i found my log in info, I think you guys were done, Did it go until 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I think i logged in late, I had an account with blog radio when i was over on the "Other" board, But by the time i found my log in info, I think you guys were done, Did it go until 10? Oh, ok. I thought you maybe had some technical issue. Yeah, we were done at 10 on the dot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Oh, ok. I thought you maybe had some technical issue. Yeah, we were done at 10 on the dot. Ok, Thanks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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