powderfreak Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Won't go down like that. Nope... never again. I just hope that we get some synoptic snow in here for those ski areas that rely on it like MRG and Magic. MRG isn't going to open before Christmas at this pace, but wouldn't be the first year that happened Was it 2006 where they opened on December 31st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 If we go past December 15th without any sort of measurable snow for most, if not a good chunk of SNE I will be a bit surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 It would be kind of amazing to think that given the Moderate/Strong Nina and the -NAO that this ends up hitting the Mid-Atl and not us. Swift kick in the balls for sure. Well I did that to get a rise out of people, but remember...the MA had 4-6" of snow from the "clipper flipper" in 2007. Storms do go south of New England, but I wouldn't worry about suppression yet. Heck we gotta get a storm to appear on the models within 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The potential storm progged around 12/9 looks to be when the NAO relaxes...following whatever happens on the 5th. While I agree it can be too much of a good thing sometimes, it is doing its job to prevent low pressure riding through Buffalo. With the continuous troughing that has happened and may continue to happen over the southwest, I'll take that block to our northeast. There will always be lows in the winter that move south of sne, during the winter. It would also seem plausible that in this Nina year the trend will be nw and the block will not be as strong as modelled. I like where we are sitting. These things almost always trend nw with last year being the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Well I did that to get a rise out of people, but remember...the MA had 4-6" of snow from the "clipper flipper" in 2007. Storms do go south of New England, but I wouldn't worry about suppression yet. Heck we gotta get a storm to appear on the models within 120hrs. I don't worry about anything weather related. Roll with the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Well I did that to get a rise out of people, but remember...the MA had 4-6" of snow from the "clipper flipper" in 2007. Storms do go south of New England, but I wouldn't worry about suppression yet. Heck we gotta get a storm to appear on the models within 120hrs. And then you wonder why we get people wailing about the end of winter. tsk, tsk I'm content with what we're shown. Storms in the vicinity at 200+ hours. Good 'nuff for this weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Well I did that to get a rise out of people, but remember...the MA had 4-6" of snow from the "clipper flipper" in 2007. Storms do go south of New England, but I wouldn't worry about suppression yet. Heck we gotta get a storm to appear on the models within 120hrs. That would be the first place to start... with all this discussion you'd think we'd have several threats, but the bottom line is we haven't seen anything remotely exciting come within 5 days so far. That would be the first step. Until then, it is like that other poster said... groundhog day over and over again. You think you are getting closer and then all the sudden its back to "well there's an interesting period on the EURO at 240 hours..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 That would be the first place to start... with all this discussion you'd think we'd have several threats, but the bottom line is we haven't seen anything remotely exciting come within 5 days so far. That would be the first step. Until then, it is like that other poster said... groundhog day over and over again. You think you are getting closer and then all the sudden its back to "well there's an interesting period on the EURO at 240 hours..." Still Nov 28th....if we get past Dec 3rd or so with nothing exciting within medium range guidance, then I'd be a little more worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 And then you wonder why we get people wailing about the end of winter. tsk, tsk I'm content with what we're shown. Storms in the vicinity at 200+ hours. Good 'nuff for this weenie. That would be the first place to start... with all this discussion you'd think we'd have several threats, but the bottom line is we haven't seen anything remotely exciting come within 5 days so far. That would be the first step. Until then, it is like that other poster said... groundhog day over and over again. You think you are getting closer and then all the sudden its back to "well there's an interesting period on the EURO at 240 hours..." I feel pretty good that there will be a threat. That's all you can say, and that's how it should be treated. I do think there may be two chances, with the second chance around 12/9. Could the storm go out to sea? Sure, but honestly..just because some models show that at D8-9, I'm not concerned just yet. I do think the overall pattern supports something near the East Coast, but that's about it. We got a -nao, and potential split flow developing out west, which is usually an eyebrow raiser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I don't worry about anything weather related. Roll with the dice. Your life experience has told taught you....it's here to enjoy but not worry over in a global sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I feel pretty good that there will be a threat. That's all you can say, and that's how it should be treated. I do think there may be two chances, with the second chance around 12/9. Could the storm go out to sea? Sure, but honestly..just because some models show that at D8-9, I'm not concerned just yet. I do think the overall pattern supports something near the East Coast, but that's about it. We got a -nao, and potential split flow developing out west, which is usually an eyebrow raiser. Well its a catch 22 with the bridge jumpers. If the models are suppressed, they cry about suppression, if they are west, cry about lake cutters, if they are a direct hit, they cry about being in the bullseye at 200 hours. We pretty much just have to get a storm imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Well its a catch 22 with the bridge jumpers. If the models are suppressed, they cry about suppression, if they are west, cry about lake cutters, if they are a direct hit, they cry about being in the bullseye at 200 hours. We pretty much just have to get a storm imminent. It's the weenies will be suppressed in a few days and not the storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Well its a catch 22 with the bridge jumpers. If the models are suppressed, they cry about suppression, if they are west, cry about lake cutters, if they are a direct hit, they cry about being in the bullseye at 200 hours. We pretty much just have to get a storm imminent. It really never ceases to amaze me how some people can take any situation and find something to b*tch about. I look out right now and see white and i KNOW more is on the way, sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Well its a catch 22 with the bridge jumpers. If the models are suppressed, they cry about suppression, if they are west, cry about lake cutters, if they are a direct hit, they cry about being in the bullseye at 200 hours. We pretty much just have to get a storm imminent. LOL, that's pretty much it right there. What about your thoughts, do you feel the same way..more or less about 12/5 and beyond?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Well its a catch 22 with the bridge jumpers. If the models are suppressed, they cry about suppression, if they are west, cry about lake cutters, if they are a direct hit, they cry about being in the bullseye at 200 hours. We pretty much just have to get a storm imminent. I do not think anyone really worries about snowstorms until they are imminent then they worry about, coastal fronts, where bands sets up, sleet contamination, dendrite growth, dry sluts, radars drying up and posts from Ryan from New London telling us the radar looks crappy on his iPhone. Seriously for 99% of us long term threats are great to watch but we are reality based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Still Nov 28th....if we get past Dec 3rd or so with nothing exciting within medium range guidance, then I'd be a little more worried. I have been forgetting this. I'll admit I want to jump right into winter. I reminded myself of this yesterday at the ski resort when I was getting worried that we are "behind schedule" for snowmaking by at least a week. Then I thought, it is still just Thanksgiving weekend and last year at this time we weren't even open (didn't open till Dec 7!!)... so when looking at it through that lens, I figure it could be a lot worse. It is still only Thanksgiving weekend. Gotta keep telling myself that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I have been forgetting this. I'll admit I want to jump right into winter. I reminded myself of this yesterday at the ski resort when I was getting worried that we are "behind schedule" for snowmaking by at least a week. Then I thought, it is still just Thanksgiving weekend and last year at this time we weren't even open (didn't open till Dec 7!!)... so when looking at it through that lens, I figure it could be a lot worse. It is still only Thanksgiving weekend. Gotta keep telling myself that. I reallly did laugh out loud at you, at this rate comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I do not think anyone really worries about snowstorms until they are imminent then they worry about, coastal fronts, where bands sets up, sleet contamination, dendrite growth, dry sluts, radars drying up and posts from Ryan from New London telling us the radar looks crappy on his iPhone. Seriously for 99% of us long term threats are great to watch but we are reality based. That could not of been said any better and is so true.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I reallly did laugh out loud at you, at this rate comment. The ski resort business can get stressful at times when the weather doesn't want to cooperate. It was funny yesterday when I walked into the ski shop near my house, it was snowing, and the woman who owns it came out to me and goes..."Look outside, look outside! There's money falling from the sky!" That's how everyone looks at it around here. Snow and cold means business and business means money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The ski resort business can get stressful at times when the weather doesn't want to cooperate. It was funny yesterday when I walked into the ski shop near my house, it was snowing, and the woman who owns it came out to me and goes..."Look outside, look outside! There's money falling from the sky!" That's how everyone looks at it around here. Snow and cold means business and business means money. And its that way up here as well........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Why is everyone worried about suppression in a LA nina/ LOL..it never happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Why is everyone worried about suppression in a LA nina/ LOL..it never happens Never say never, considering we may be in a new -NAO/AO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Never say never, considering we may be in a new -NAO/AO regime. The only time we'd ever probably have to worry about suppression during a La Nina is when the AO/NAO are extremely negative as is the PNA which would really help to squash the SE ridge. As long as the SE ridge is in play though the -NAO/AO combo should really help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I was showing my 5-year old how much rain we were going to get in the 84z frame of the 12z gfs and she said "but then it will turn to snow and ice". Then I looked at 90z and had to scratch my head and wonder....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Stupidity continues on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Stupidity continues on the 12z GFS LOL, lost all the threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 nice run on the GFS.. NOT!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Almost looks like 06z ensembles. Weeeeeeeeeeee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 LOL, lost all the threats. I'll be back in 100 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 LOL, lost all the threats. We can spend the GTG coming up with different phrases as to how cold it is: "colder than hell" "colder than a witch's t*t " etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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