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Threat Thread


ski MRG

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Sam, just nuts and bolts disco please. Elaborate on the bump in the road this week if you must but trolling with bad juju is not cool.

Sorry, I had a really great post in mind, but after waiting 5 minutes for dial up to load the page, I forgot it all :lol:

But don't worry about me, I'm on the cold and snow bandwagon. Once I'm back at Plymouth tomorrow ... and finished a 10 page paper ... I'll take a closer look at everything and say a few worthwhile words.

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Sorry, I had a really great post in mind, but after waiting 5 minutes for dial up to load the page, I forgot it all :lol:

But don't worry about me, I'm on the cold and snow bandwagon. Once I'm back at Plymouth tomorrow ... and finished a 10 page paper ... I'll take a closer look at everything and say a few worthwhile words.

No worries. Think we're about tohead into the first truly active period of the Winter and I think we should all try to chat it up in the banter thread and leave this thread and others like it for pure analysis. After all the work the guys have done to get this new forum up and running we should try to make the job of moderation as easy as possible. Btw, just a fantastic transition over to our new home, kudos to all those involved.

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No worries. Think we're about tohead into the first truly active period of the Winter and I think we should all try to chat it up in the banter thread and leave this thread and others like it for pure analysis. After all the work the guys have done to get this new forum up and running we should try to make the job of moderation as easy as possible. Btw, just a fantastic transition over to our new home, kudos to all those involved.

Yeah, we need to have one thread strictly banter without having to go off topic and leave the analysis threads to strictly........analysis

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No worries. Think we're about tohead into the first truly active period of the Winter and I think we should all try to chat it up in the banter thread and leave this thread and others like it for pure analysis. After all the work the guys have done to get this new forum up and running we should try to make the job of moderation as easy as possible. Btw, just a fantastic transition over to our new home, kudos to all those involved.

:weenie:

Yeah, we need to have one thread strictly banter without having to go off topic and leave the analysis threads to strictly........analysis

; :weenie:
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No worries. Think we're about tohead into the first truly active period of the Winter and I think we should all try to chat it up in the banter thread and leave this thread and others like it for pure analysis. After all the work the guys have done to get this new forum up and running we should try to make the job of moderation as easy as possible. Btw, just a fantastic transition over to our new home, kudos to all those involved.

Winter is about to begin.

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almost time think about the first snow event of the season for SNE

I could be way off in what I'm reading on this. But looks like the 06z gfs doesn't care about a retrograding snowstorm. Keeps NE cold while forming a low off the Delmarva that provides the MA with snows and passes wide-right of us. Am I misreading that?

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Well, it is good to see things coming together and verifying. The late Nov -EPO/NAO development is working out well and it delivered the coldest outbreak since 1985 to the West. At a time of "weakened forcing" is when you will get your meridional flows and blocking. As the +AAM anomaly propagates into the Mid Latitudes (with the actual cause being the +MTs that will take place), a new surge of +h85 winds will start propagating eastward through Indonesia and the -h2 winds will intensify. The models are now beginning to catch on to the idea of a new MJO wave but they are still confused/weak because the signal is weak. When the circulation changes across the Himalayas, the h2 winds will respond across the IO and that will get the MJO signal out of the toilet again.

The word is "retrogression" for the N PAC through the first half of December and this is favorable for a PNA pattern to take place (Aleutian High-GOA low-west ridge). As the MJO signal intensifies and the +AAM peaks out and -dAAM/dt starts up, the pattern will likely break down and head warm.

I agree with others that Dec 4-5 and then later that following week are definite winter threats.

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God, the 00z and 06z GFS are a snow lovers dream.:snowman:

What am I missing on the 06z run? The thing I saw was the dream of someone who wants to skate on a snow-free lake. As I said in my earlier post, I was probalby reading it wrong. But, tell me what/when you're looking at on the 06 run so I can be better informed.

Thanks.

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What am I missing on the 06z run? The thing I saw was the dream of someone who wants to skate on a snow-free lake. As I said in my earlier post, I was probalby reading it wrong. But, tell me what/when you're looking at on the 06 run so I can be better informed.

Thanks.

That's right where we want the GFS at this timeframe..in it's usual SE bias mode

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