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am19psu

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I see- thanks.

Uh oh...getting off topic here with all the crazy job/location stuff. lol Can't have that.

I should've asked you to express your response in the form of a question.

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Question, what potential future effect will this massive low (or two lows) over Greenland have on our weather in the eastern half of the country?

Thanks in advance!

It will most likely help keep the nrn stream pattern progressive and allow routine quick moving clipper type systems across the nrn conus. More quasi-zonal or low amp ridging across the mid atl and se. A typical cold season breakdown into more of a spring pattern. Not that significant blocking cant return in the next month or so tho.

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What is used to make a long range forecast like the one in the link below? I read the info section and didn't understand all of it. It seems like they use records over a 30 year period but is that all? Also how accurate are these forecast? I relize all forecast are ever changing but, if these are akin to blindly throwing darts at a board. What is thier usefulness? Thanks in Advance, Don

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=11

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What is used to make a long range forecast like the one in the link below? I read the info section and didn't understand all of it. It seems like they use records over a 30 year period but is that all? Also how accurate are these forecast? I relize all forecast are ever changing but, if these are akin to blindly throwing darts at a board. What is thier usefulness? Thanks in Advance, Don

http://www.cpc.ncep....nal.php?lead=11

These really aren't forecast per se...they are general outlooks. No one should take these at face value, hence the probabilities assigned. They are based on the current global patterns and various signals seen on the synoptic and hemispheric scales. Very broad info is relayed and of course the actual patterns that pan out could certainty not align with these projections. Generalities should be taken as is and no definitive outcomes should be inferred. This is the best available science and present state of seasonal and long-range forecasting.

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What is used to make a long range forecast like the one in the link below? I read the info section and didn't understand all of it. It seems like they use records over a 30 year period but is that all? Also how accurate are these forecast? I relize all forecast are ever changing but, if these are akin to blindly throwing darts at a board. What is thier usefulness? Thanks in Advance, Don

http://www.cpc.ncep....nal.php?lead=11

If it's a CPC outlook (and I'm probably going to get bashed for saying this, but I don't really care), it's probably 100% ENSO.

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If it's a CPC outlook (and I'm probably going to get bashed for saying this, but I don't really care), it's probably 100% ENSO.

come on this is a met thread you know that isn't an enso only based forecast i know it weighs heavy but be fair to them its not like its a bunch of idiots there they are all master level students or higher they are pretty smart.

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I'll take, Farmers Almanac over CPC for 1000, Alex. What a useless product on almost the level of GFS for a weenie or TV met like, CT Rain or Gibbs Free Torch Fail :P I keed about the last two, Mets.

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come on this is a met thread you know that isn't an enso only based forecast i know it weighs heavy but be fair to them its not like its a bunch of idiots there they are all master level students or higher they are pretty smart.

Yeah right on. I'm not sure how folks here, esp mets, don't understand how an outlook is produced or what it's intended purpose is for. These are the types that until they work at CPC and start producing outlooks themselves, will never get it.

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If it's a CPC outlook (and I'm probably going to get bashed for saying this, but I don't really care), it's probably 100% ENSO.

Wow....I should know better than to even respond to this.

To answer the original question, the seasonal outlooks are put together based on variety of information just like weather forecasts (persistence, trends, dynamical models, statistical models, analogs, and combinations thereof)....and the probabilities they put out are relative to the 30 year average. They have quite a bit of information on the website if you poke around about some of the tools they use. I'm sure others can chime in if you have specific questions about one of the methods/tools they use.

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Wow....I should know better than to even respond to this.

To answer the original question, the seasonal outlooks are put together based on variety of information just like weather forecasts (persistence, trends, dynamical models, statistical models, analogs, and combinations thereof)....and the probabilities they put out are relative to the 30 year average. They have quite a bit of information on the website if you poke around about some of the tools they use. I'm sure others can chime in if you have specific questions about one of the methods/tools they use.

It really takes all that data to say equal chances every time?

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It really takes all that data to say equal chances every time?

It sounds like you haven't taken any sort of real look into long-range temperature forecasting. You also have a habit of posting your thoughts without any sort of truthful data to back them up. Please stop posting these falsities in a thread dedicated to providing truthful, scientific discussions to those who are seeking correct answers.

In case anyone's interested, a good link showing what the CPC uses is http://www.cpc.ncep....dictions/30day/ (just to the left of the maps). The two key links are the Text Format Discussions and the Tools Discussion.

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It sounds like you haven't taken any sort of real look into long-range temperature forecasting. You also have a habit of posting your thoughts without any sort of truthful data to back them up. Please stop posting these falsities in a thread dedicated to providing truthful, scientific discussions to those who are seeking correct answers.

In case anyone's interested, a good link showing what the CPC uses is http://www.cpc.ncep....dictions/30day/ (just to the left of the maps). The two key links are the Text Format Discussions and the Tools Discussion.

It's one thing to say how they make a forecast, and present all the available tools on a website. When the actual forecast is made, they can do what they want.

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It really takes all that data to say equal chances every time?

Are you implying there should be no areas where near normal wx is expected? Everywhere should either be above or below average with no inflection points? How is an instantaneous dipole switch possible in nature?

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Are you implying there should be no areas where near normal wx is expected? Everywhere should either be above or below average with no inflection points? How is an instantaneous dipole switch possible in nature?

I'm saying perhaps if they actually used the term "Close to normal" instead of the ridiculous-sounding "Equal Chances" they might have a lot more credibility.

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I'm saying perhaps if they actually used the term "Close to normal" instead of the ridiculous-sounding "Equal Chances" they might have a lot more credibility.

Yeah it does take a rocket scientist to figure out what they are saying. They should dumb it down a bit.

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Yeah it does takes a rocket scientist to figure out what they are saying. They should dumb it down a bit.

Think about it. Someone asks me "Will we have a warm winter or a cold winter?" I say "We have equal chances of warm or cold". Anybody can say that. At least if I say "Temperatures this winter will average close to normal", then people would say Ok, that's his forecast.

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Yeah, you seem to be lacking in that area today. I recommend you have something to eat, and then come back to the boards.

:lol:

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It's one thing to say how they make a forecast, and present all the available tools on a website. When the actual forecast is made, they can do what they want.

Did you read my whole post? I told people to look at the discussion link... it outlines IN DETAIL how they came up with their forecast.

Here's the specific link: http://www.cpc.ncep....nge/fxus07.html

And from their discussion:

THE LONG LEAD FEBRUARY 2011 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WAS BASED ON

LA NINA COMPOSITES WITH CONSIDERATION OF OTHER TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL TOOLS,

RECENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OBSERVATIONS, AND THE EXPECTATION THAT A

SIGNIFICANT, NEGATIVE AO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FEBRUARY. COVERAGE IS VERY HIGH

FOR A MONTHLY FORECAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE MODEST.

THE UPDATE AT THE END OF THE MONTH CONSIDERS IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED

TOOLS ALSO NWP SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE ON JANUARY 31 FOR THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF

FEBRUARY. WE SHOULD MAKE NOTE THAT THE AO HAS NOW GONE POSITIVE FOR THE FIRST

TIME SINCE MID-NOVEMBER AND PREDICTED TO BE POSITIVE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 5

DAYS. THIS IN AND OF ITSELF ARGUES FOR MORE CANONICAL LA NINA COMPOSITES, WHICH

IS LESS COLD IN THE EAST THAT PREDICTED AT LONG-LEAD. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NWP

SOLUTIONS FOR THE US SHOW EXTENSIVE COLD AT THE START OF THE MONTH. WE ONLY

SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE 33% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL CONTOUR, MAINLY BY BRINGING IT

FARTHER SOUTH IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PULLING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE

MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RATHER HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO BE BROUGHT BY A

MAJOR WINTERSTORM ON FEB 1 AND 2. SPECIFICALLY WE MOVED THE 33% LINE FOR ABOVE

MEDIAN IN THE OHIO VALLEY FARTHER WEST, AND SHARPLY REDUCED THE PROBABILITIES

FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE BORDER AREA OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA AND

ALABAMA, GIVEN THAT MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL IN THAT AREA OVER THE

NEXT FEW DAYS.

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Did you read my whole post? I told people to look at the discussion link... it outlines IN DETAIL how they came up with their forecast.

Here's the specific link: http://www.cpc.ncep....nge/fxus07.html

And from their discussion:

THE LONG LEAD FEBRUARY 2011 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WAS BASED ON

LA NINA COMPOSITES WITH CONSIDERATION OF OTHER TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL TOOLS,

RECENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OBSERVATIONS, AND THE EXPECTATION THAT A

SIGNIFICANT, NEGATIVE AO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FEBRUARY. COVERAGE IS VERY HIGH

FOR A MONTHLY FORECAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE MODEST.

THE UPDATE AT THE END OF THE MONTH CONSIDERS IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED

TOOLS ALSO NWP SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE ON JANUARY 31 FOR THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF

FEBRUARY. WE SHOULD MAKE NOTE THAT THE AO HAS NOW GONE POSITIVE FOR THE FIRST

TIME SINCE MID-NOVEMBER AND PREDICTED TO BE POSITIVE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 5

DAYS. THIS IN AND OF ITSELF ARGUES FOR MORE CANONICAL LA NINA COMPOSITES, WHICH

IS LESS COLD IN THE EAST THAT PREDICTED AT LONG-LEAD. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NWP

SOLUTIONS FOR THE US SHOW EXTENSIVE COLD AT THE START OF THE MONTH. WE ONLY

SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE 33% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL CONTOUR, MAINLY BY BRINGING IT

FARTHER SOUTH IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PULLING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE

MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RATHER HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO BE BROUGHT BY A

MAJOR WINTERSTORM ON FEB 1 AND 2. SPECIFICALLY WE MOVED THE 33% LINE FOR ABOVE

MEDIAN IN THE OHIO VALLEY FARTHER WEST, AND SHARPLY REDUCED THE PROBABILITIES

FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE BORDER AREA OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA AND

ALABAMA, GIVEN THAT MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL IN THAT AREA OVER THE

NEXT FEW DAYS.

It just doesn't seem like they actually use all that when they make those maps. Or, to me, it seems like those maps could be made real quickly without much thought.

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It just doesn't seem like they actually use all that when they make those maps. Or, to me, it seems like those maps could be made real quickly without much thought.

Well that's just too bad, then. I would suggest trying it for yourself... it's certainly not easy to make an accurate long-range forecast.

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What school has the best meteorology program?

I don't know if there's a single school with the "best" meteorology program. It really depends on what you're looking for (such as class size, etc), or what you want to do in the future with your met degree (private sector, govt, TV)?

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Think about it. Someone asks me "Will we have a warm winter or a cold winter?" I say "We have equal chances of warm or cold". Anybody can say that. At least if I say "Temperatures this winter will average close to normal", then people would say Ok, that's his forecast.

I dont have a red tag, but I think the purpose of the CPC has went right over your head. The CPC tries to predict climate variables and assess broader climate anomalies of the land, sea and atmosphere, while monitoring the current climate. Their outlooks are very broad and are not designed to be taken at face value for precip and temps, its just a very general idea. They issue outlooks further into the future than anyone, so of course they will be wrong more than anybody else. At this time with current technology they are as accurate as they can be in that long of a range.

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What school has the best meteorology program?

Well in general one could look at the size of said department... schools with larger departments will in general have more funding and more opportunities for research. Additionally, location is important even at the undergrad level because some school have "specialties" if you will. Take Oklahoma for example... it's well known that they are a top, if not THE top school for all things severe weather. Florida state is good for Tropical. Penn State is very balanced. Not only is location important here, but then you have some schools who have a good research relationship with local NWS offices. NC State is a good example here.

Another factor that is underrated is cost, to you. Choosing to go to Penn State when you could pay in-state tuition to Rutgers, for example (for NJ residents), is probably not the best use of your money. Even when picking schools out-of-state... some are much cheaper than others with little difference in the quality of education at the undergrad level (where specialization isn't nearly as important), NC State, for example, is nearly $10,000/year cheaper for OOS students and I would argue that the program is just as good as Penn State's... then again, I'm an NCSU alum :P

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