weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 When looking at momentum transfer on bufkit what are good numbers to see? At BDL tomorrow the best I see is 31 hours out... 150 * 42 knots 149 * 33 knots WTH does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 When looking at momentum transfer on bufkit what are good numbers to see? At BDL tomorrow the best I see is 31 hours out... 150 * 42 knots 149 * 33 knots WTH does that mean? The 150 is the direction of the wind, so that would be southeast. The 42 knots would be the maximum potential, while the 33 knots is what's more likely to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 This is just sick...the 12z GFS has pockets of 80-100 knots at 850mb...I don't know if I've ever seen winds THAT strong at that level this close to an event...also consistent with the NAM in the 60-70 kt LLJ at 925mb over the region. The GFS also looks to have 30-40 kt sfc winds over Long Island sound and southern CT tomorrow afternoon and then out over SE MA late in the afternoon...this is looking at the MSLP/sfc wind map on UCAR. GFS looks pretty awful with ML lapse rates though so we'll definitely need some intense rainfall to help with winds. Have to look closer when I get home, 2 minutes left here at the library. Last winter, we had a day where GFS had one hundred knots at 850, I think Blue Hill gusted to mid sixties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 The 150 is the direction of the wind, so that would be southeast. The 42 knots would be the maximum potential, while the 33 knots is what's more likely to occur. Ahhh alright, that's pretty easy to understand, thanks! 33 knots at BDL wouldn't be too shabby, that's about 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Last winter, we had a day where GFS had one hundred knots at 850, I think Blue Hill gusted to mid sixties. Really? wow...was that modeled the night before or the day of? Or was this like several days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really? wow...was that modeled the night before or the day of? Or was this like several days out? Day of I will try to find it on Eastern, Mek was all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Day of I will try to find it on Eastern, Mek was all over it. OMG...that's just flat out SICK. Considering it was last winter that explains why I don't remember, I was without a computer so didn't do much model watching. I think though I may actually remember you guys talking about it, is it possible it was with that event...in early December? where we got snow during the day and then a squall line at night which produced hail in some spots? That was a pretty intense system...I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 NAM Bufkit has about 30-35 knots for the sfc at BDL and closer to 40 knots along the coast of CT. Still need to watch for a possible low topped forced line just out ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Temps have began the upward trend, lower 50's here and temps approaching the mid 50's in S. CT were winds are already gusting into the mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Not too bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 A little piece from OKX: PRECEDING THE FRONT...WILL BE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THATSTRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING WITH 60 TO 70 KT WINDS INTHE 975 MB TO 950 LAYER. THIS LAYER ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION...MIXING WILL BECONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS. THESE STRONG WINDS IN CONJUNCTIONWITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OFTHE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ATTHE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM NYC AND POINTS EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 BOX: HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF MA AND RIAROUND CAPE COD TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ANDEARLY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 65-70 KT JET AT 925 HPAMOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.WITH STRONG PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL...EXPECT VERY GOODLOW LEVEL MIXING TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THESE STRONG WINDS. HAVEFORECASTED SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTSPOSSIBLY UP TO 50 MPH.HAVE NOTED A QUICK PERIOD OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGIONAHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S. BIGQUESTION FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WHERE THE OCCLUSION MOVES AS THEFRONT APPROACHES. AT THIS POINT...LOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SOHAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER...BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM WITHELEVATED CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Not too bad... Paul--what is an "instantaneneous wind gust"? How is it different than a regular gust? I'm sure the location changes over time, but it's funny that the lowest potential is the area with the BOX wind adivsory. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeD Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yo Wiz - Yeah we had to take out the thunder - the last thing I wanted to do to our day shift was to have you in full panic mode screaming like a little girl when you call the office reporting "lots and lots of lightning" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Paul--what is an "instantaneneous wind gust"? How is it different than a regular gust? I'm sure the location changes over time, but it's funny that the lowest potential is the area with the BOX wind adivsory. lol I actually have no clue Unless we get some help from convection (which really isn't all that likely) or help from intense rainfall the strongest winds look to probably occur along the coastal areas and the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yo Wiz - Yeah we had to take out the thunder - the last thing I wanted to do to our day shift was to have you in full panic mode screaming like a little girl when you call the office reporting "lots and lots of lightning" I can understand taking out the thunder I never called the office screaming like a girl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeD Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I can understand taking out the thunder I never called the office screaming like a girl Well it wasn't Debbie Downer or the Reverend of Mt Tolland...who else in CT could it have been????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Well it wasn't Debbie Downer or the Reverend of Mt Tolland...who else in CT could it have been????? I don't know...good question. I did call Rob one night when I was at a friends house when I saw alot of lightning but it was to only ask him if there was anything coming and if he needed me to go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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