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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

PennMan

By PennMan,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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PennMan

PennMan

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Good luck new Central PA thread on the new board!! :snowman:

I think the goal should be to accumulate fewer inches of sleet than snow this winter in State College. Comments?

axesmiley.png Could be a challenge. I think it really could go either way up here this winter. I am expecting an above normal amount of sleet and freezing rain though.

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jm1220

jm1220

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axesmiley.png Could be a challenge. I think it really could go either way up here this winter. I am expecting an above normal amount of sleet and freezing rain though.

-NAO could help, although redevelopers that cut up into the Ohio Valley and redevelop always seem to cut further north than expected in Nina years. The right setup can cash you guys in along the I-80 corridor though. The SST profile in the ATL is very favorable right now for the -NAO, so hopefully it keeps the redevelopments and overrunning to the south when it's in place. Eventually though, in as strong a Nina as this is, the PAC jet always seems to win out and no one prospers east of Detroit. Tough call for sure out your way. North of the NY/PA line it's more clear cut that there will be a lot more snow. Pingers will likely be in plentiful supply south though. :axe:

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PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

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Currently 66 degrees and is now the warmest day for this November and likely the warmest until March. The low this morning was 17 degrees. Hopefully this clipper like system about a week from now can give us our first measurable snow :) As long as we can manage to develop a -NAO I think I-80 will do ok. My area always seems to do ok even if central PA is continuously getting ice storms. I'm usually the coldest for the state of PA, well night time temps anyways. Usually Bradford, PA is the coolest during the day time temps.

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PSU8315

PSU8315

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Another day of impressive diurnal ranges. Altoona had a 35 degree range (26 to 61) and UNV had a 36 degree range (25 to 61). Pretty remarkable considering how low the sun is and how little daylight there is in mid-November.

The dry air certainly had a part in the big swings. JST had a temp of 60 and a dew point of 1 yesterday afternoon. Dew points tonight are in the teens. Reminds me of the dew points we usually see during the spring during brush fire season...

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PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

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Another day of impressive diurnal ranges. Altoona had a 35 degree range (26 to 61) and UNV had a 36 degree range (25 to 61). Pretty remarkable considering how low the sun is and how little daylight there is in mid-November.

The dry air certainly had a part in the big swings. JST had a temp of 60 and a dew point of 1 yesterday afternoon. Dew points tonight are in the teens. Reminds me of the dew points we usually see during the spring during brush fire season...

I agree the diurnal range has been impressive. The range for me was exactly 50 degrees. I had a low this morning of 17 at 7AM and a high of 67 at 2:15PM. I don't know why I was warmer than UNV and Altoona, but I'm pretty confident my temps are accurate sence I have a davis vantage vue. Whats your thoughts PSU?

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woolymammoth

woolymammoth

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-NAO could help, although redevelopers that cut up into the Ohio Valley and redevelop always seem to cut further north than expected in Nina years. The right setup can cash you guys in along the I-80 corridor though. The SST profile in the ATL is very favorable right now for the -NAO, so hopefully it keeps the redevelopments and overrunning to the south when it's in place. Eventually though, in as strong a Nina as this is, the PAC jet always seems to win out and no one prospers east of Detroit. Tough call for sure out your way. North of the NY/PA line it's more clear cut that there will be a lot more snow. Pingers will likely be in plentiful supply south though. :axe:

Mixing has been a big issue here in BGM, NY the last couple of winters. We used to (generally) stay all snow while the Wyoming Vally and south dealt with changeover issues.

Don't like this new trend at all! And in my upstate forum I have to deal with all the guys bragging about their LES events.

Feel more attached to you PA folks climatologically. Just really hope I'm North (not on!) "the line" this winter. Please!

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PSU8315

PSU8315

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I agree the diurnal range has been impressive. The range for me was exactly 50 degrees. I had a low this morning of 17 at 7AM and a high of 67 at 2:15PM. I don't know why I was warmer than UNV and Altoona, but I'm pretty confident my temps are accurate sence I have a davis vantage vue. Whats your thoughts PSU?

Not knowing exactly where your temp sensor is with respect to other objects, I can't totally say whether your numbers are accurate or not, but I will say that they do make sense in this pattern. In our viewing area, DuBois is typically cooler than AOO & UNV. However, in a pattern of light winds and sunshine, DuBois can run warmer. That's especially the case when that wind is out of the southeast and downsloping off of the mountains. We had a light breeze out of the southeast on Saturday -- AOO & UNV hit 61 and DuBois hit 65. The DuBois airport is on a plateau around 1800' or so, which is fairly similar to the terrain of Potter County.

And the numbers you reported today and relatively close to some of the COOP observations from Friday in your general area, which were some of the warmest obs in Central PA. So again, it's a pattern that would support the numbers you had from Saturday.

ELK COUNTY

RIDGWAY 0.00 68 21

MCKEAN COUNTY

KANE 0.00 64 21

POTTER COUNTY

COUDERSPORT 7SE 0.00 62 27

COUDERSPORT 1SW 0.00 64 19

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PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

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Not knowing exactly where your temp sensor is with respect to other objects, I can't totally say whether your numbers are accurate or not, but I will say that they do make sense in this pattern. In our viewing area, DuBois is typically cooler than AOO & UNV. However, in a pattern of light winds and sunshine, DuBois can run warmer. That's especially the case when that wind is out of the southeast and downsloping off of the mountains. We had a light breeze out of the southeast on Saturday -- AOO & UNV hit 61 and DuBois hit 65. The DuBois airport is on a plateau around 1800' or so, which is fairly similar to the terrain of Potter County.

And the numbers you reported today and relatively close to some of the COOP observations from Friday in your general area, which were some of the warmest obs in Central PA. So again, it's a pattern that would support the numbers you had from Saturday.

ELK COUNTY

RIDGWAY 0.00 68 21

MCKEAN COUNTY

KANE 0.00 64 21

POTTER COUNTY

COUDERSPORT 7SE 0.00 62 27

COUDERSPORT 1SW 0.00 64 19

Well my sensor has been check out by the NWS. I am a coop observer for Shinglehouse, PA in the NW part of Potter. I'm not an official coop yet until next month, waiting for the paper work to go through. I have been a coop observer for only 5 months now. Like I was saying, my night time temps are usually the coldest in the state of PA., and we hit 17 degrees. During the winter we are normally the last ones to completely change over from snow also. Your right, the terrain in potter county is relatively high, but my area is lower than most at 1552' with most areas in Potter and McKean around 18-22 hundred feet.

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PSU8315

PSU8315

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Well my sensor has been check out by the NWS. I am a coop observer for Shinglehouse, PA in the NW part of Potter. I'm not an official coop yet until next month, waiting for the paper work to go through. I have been a coop observer for only 5 months now. Like I was saying, my night time temps are usually the coldest in the state of PA., and we hit 17 degrees. During the winter we are normally the last ones to completely change over from snow also. Your right, the terrain in potter county is relatively high, but my area is lower than most at 1552' with most areas in Potter and McKean around 18-22 hundred feet.

I can see why you're usually the coldest in PA. You're in a relatively low elevation, but surrounded by high mountains. In good radiational cooling nights, the cold air is going to drain right in the valley you're in. Should be interesting to see some of the numbers you get down to if we can get a couple of Arctic outbreaks this winter...

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PSU8315

PSU8315

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did anyone let JSTWX(tony martin) know about the move to the new forum?

we dont want to lose the handful of mets we have here in c-pa

i see that brian made it here.

edit**

i just sent him an email...dont know if he knows / cares or not!

I believe he did find it. I saw his name in the thread where we had to post to get our red tags back...

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PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

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Looks like the dry slot of doom is head for western PA. I would have to say most areas will recieve 1-1.5" . It would be nice if we could get something to materialize with this cool down being proged. What ever does form after this storm it looks to be quick and a mini warm up happens again :( . Darn western trough

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jm1220

jm1220

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Looks like the dry slot of doom is head for western PA. I would have to say most areas will recieve 1-1.5" . It would be nice if we could get something to materialize with this cool down being proged. What ever does form after this storm it looks to be quick and a mini warm up happens again :( . Darn western trough

The cold front could bring a line of heavier rain through the state later today. It looks to really intensify further east towards the Delaware Valley.

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